1st Round Defensive Draft Choices in Tomlin Era

The term bust is pretty subjective. To me Ziggy was a bust. He hung around the league for a while after his tenure with the Steelers. But he bounced around and never really stuck anywhere. He didn't do much in Jacksonville or Chicago.

 

Then he did it very well

Applause to him

 

I guess my problem with "bust" is you divide players into just two categories, which appear to be "All Pro" or "bust". By my reckoning, we have two outright busts- Jones and Burns. Leaving out Bush, who's only in his third year and by all appearances before his injury was doing great, Ziggy Hood was us trying to fit a square peg in a round hole, but anyone with a 10 year career in the NFL is hardly a bust. Terrell has started for four years at strong safety for us, but if you want to label him a bust because you feel that he was overdrafted and isn't an all pro, that's your call. And calling Dupree a bust because he didn't become a stud until his 4th year is just wrong.

And while it was pointed out that the overall "bust" rate for first rounders is around 50%, I would like to see what it is just for players taken in the 20's, where we usually pick.

 

I guess my problem with "bust" is you divide players into just two categories, which appear to be "All Pro" or "bust". By my reckoning, we have two outright busts- Jones and Burns. Leaving out Bush, who's only in his third year and by all appearances before his injury was doing great, Ziggy Hood was us trying to fit a square peg in a round hole, but anyone with a 10 year career in the NFL is hardly a bust. Terrell has started for four years at strong safety for us, but if you want to label him a bust because you feel that he was overdrafted and isn't an all pro, that's your call. And calling Dupree a bust because he didn't become a stud until his 4th year is just wrong.

And while it was pointed out that the overall "bust" rate for first rounders is around 50%, I would like to see what it is just for players taken in the 20's, where we usually pick.

 

I wasn't going to look up all 32 teams but here are the #1 picks for the last 10 years by our division rivals.
Browns
2012-Trent Richardson and Brandon Weedon
2013-Barkevious Mingo
2014-Justin Gilbert and Johnny Manziel
2015-Danny Shelton and Cameron Erving
2016-Corey Coleman
2017-Myles Garrett, Jabrill Peppers and David Njoku
2018-Baker Mayfield and Denzel Ward
2019- No pick (Part of OBJ deal)
2020-Jedrick Wills
2021-Greg Newsome

Bengals
2012-Dre Kirkpatrick and Kevin Zeitler
2013-Tyler Eifert
2014-Darqueeze Dennard
2015-Cedric Ogbhei
2016-William Jackson III
2017-John Ross
2018-Billy Price
2019Jonah Williams
2020-Joe Burrow
2021-JaMarr Chase

Ravens
2012-No pick (Traded out of first round)
2013-Matt Elam
2014-CJ Mosley
2015-Breshad Perriman
2016-Ronnie Stanley
2017-Marlon Humphrey
2018-Hayden Hurst and Lamar Jackson
2019-Marquise Brown
2020-Patrick Queen
2021-Rashad Bateman and Odafe Oweh

 

Hardly. You learn these things in elementary/middle school. Anyone with a higher education has a firm grasp of this concept. You can’t group something together and call it below average without comparing to other similar groups. It’s quite possible if someone were to look at each teams first round defensive draft pick for the last 10 years and find that we are well above average. Without a comparison the analysis isn’t worth a hill of beans.

You could use his example of his school as well. He could say 50% of our students graduate and go on to college and call it above average. Everyone would sit around pat themselves on the back and say what a great job they’re doing. What about the other schools in the same district? What if those schools are at 80%? Whoopsie

 

This study I mentioned was rounds 1-7 if I recall correctly, not just first round.

50% sounds about right for first rounders, I’ll bet if you look at all 32 teams draft history nobody hits on more than that. It’s easy to criticise with the benefit of hindsight.

 

Your last sentence is absolutely where any comparisons should be made. You can't compare drafts with teams like the Jets and Lions that annually draft in the top fifteen, or top ten. For the most part, I'm pretty confident in the Steelers organization to draft competent talent where ever they pick.

That said, with all of the needs the team currently has, I'd like to see them continue to explore FA more as a means of rebuilding their roster. I have confidence in this area as well because we all know the Rooney's are careful not to throw good money after bad.

 

I totally agree with all this...., but T. Edmunds...I think He is slightly better than Bad...., but since this is I won't continue.

 

Would be interesting to see the previous 10 years. Could maybe give you an indication that we have gotten worse at drafting defensive players in the 1st round. I suspect we have done average or above avg in the 1st round.

I disagree with you that it is irrelevant what other teams have done. Hitting .300 to a non baseball fan probably sounds terrible. If we hit in the 1st round around 50% and the league is hitting 40% then we have done a nice job. If we have a 45% 1st round success rate and the league avg is 75% then someone should be fired. I willing to bet were you draft in the first round also plays a part. Not to mention the position. It seems like teams miss on corners and QB's more than other positions. Maybe I'm wrong but it just seems that way.

 

We heard you the first time Flower

 

Colbert, and the Steelers ability to draft, are the LEAST of the Steelers worries... Didn't like wasting all the draft capital they did on small, undersized ILB...But other than that...They continually do a great job!

 

Strongly disagree about Timmons. Timmons was actually a rock solid 1st Round Pick for certain and carved out a very good career here in Pittsburgh. For that matter, during the 10 seasons he played with Pittsburgh, he recorded over 100 tackles in six of those ten seasons; not bad for a guy who was initially struggling out of the gate.


One of Mike Tomlin's most teachable film sessions with his rookie is one of Law Dogs preseason games in which he was literally spun around. After that though, he was a rock solid contributor from then on out.

 

One more aspect to touch upon; @Thigpen82 and the point he made about the success rate of First Round Picks are correct. More concrete information can be found here. However, Thig himself did not need to state this in my opinion. Why?



Steelers fans, more than any other fanbase since the AFL/NFL Merger should know, and I highly stress that term "should", not every First Round pick is going to be a slam dunk perennial All Pro. If anything, I have stated such in continually perpetuity within every Big Board, Mock Draft and Top Five Positional Rankings that I have done every year. Really no other way I can state it anymore.



The NFL Draft is no different than walking into one's local Gas Station to play the lottery. Sometimes a person can get lucky..... others not so much. For a Steelers Reference, compare the 2015 Draft to the 2017 Draft for the most recent example. For an all time example?



The 1974 Class vs. the 2008 Class.

 

I believe the 2023 1st round draft sucked for the entire NFL, from something I read this am

 

Bush - too early to tell
Edmunds - I think Edmunds is an average players, not his fault he was drafted too high. Colbert and Tomlin reached
Watt - Homerun
Burns - Bust, another Colbert and Tomlin reach
Dupree - Ended up being a good player for the Steelers, he was a project from the start. I'm not calling him a bust
Shazier - Great pick
Jones - Bust. Other teams were going to take him right after the Steelers so he had the NFL fooled
Heyward - Homerun
Hood - Bust
Timmons - Good pick
Woodley - Good Pick

 

I actually thought Woodley was a Awesome pick...Well... until He got His Big Contract, and all of a sudden couldn't stay healthy, or in shape...in whatever order You would like 2 put that in . LoL.

 

Hey rel.

I will just go with you as you were the last person to respond to me.

Hey Everyone.

I just got a chance to look at the replies for the first time since I started the thread. WOW! It seems like a real “Fire Storm” in some cases (smile).

Side Note:

Usually, I will post to everyone personally as I kind of feel obligated if I put up a Thread. Unfortunately, I do not have that kind of time right now. So, I will try to provide more "Blanket" type answers.


Okay, Remember the key statement to my thread was:

“Out of the 11 players listed, how many do you THINK have really lived-up to 1st Round Billing?”

Key Words: “Think” and "1st Round Billing”

“Think” that is it folks. Yes, of course there has to be some “substance” behind my choices. However, just from a bird’s eye view, a quick Steelers’ career re-cap/impact without going into a whole bunch of data and analytics. That was it. State a player’s name and I will give you a quick opinionated synopsis.

Again, Opinion.


Here is something for all of the scholars here to think about:

“An opinion may be supported by facts and principles, in which case it becomes an argument."


I am not here to argue with anyone. Debate, sure. Admittedly, I did not dig into Next Gen Stats when I wrote this folks. However, I know enough about the players that I listed and what they have accomplished with the Steelers.

I have all the evidence I need to back my opinions. However, if I did that for all of the 11 players that I listed, I would have gotten a whole bunch of TLDR comments because some folks here find my posts to be too long to read once they get past one paragraph (smile).


And then there is the phrase “1st Round Billing” used endlessly here on The Board, within Sports Media, fan talk, etc. The phrase “1st Round Billing” comes with some very lofty expectations as I would think most of us agree. Is it not the most anticipated move in each year's Draft? We talk about it time and time again even before the prior season is over. Some here on This Board, without mentioning names, (which is not my style) I can recall time and time again moaning and groaning about the following players in my list and their quoted remarks.

• Artie Burns: “Huge Over-reach”. “Terrible pick”

• Terrell Edmunds: “Great athletic traits. Poor football skills.” “Time to admit mistake and move on.”

• Jarvis Jones: “Complete Bust."

• Evandeer Hood: “Struggled because he was placed in the wrong Defensive Scheme here in Pittsburgh.”

• Bud Dupree: “Was nothing without Watt. He sucked his first four years here. Hey, how is he doing with the Titans by the way?” Oh yeah four whole tackles and one sack so far. Yeah he is tearing them up there in Tennessee in four games."

Hey, there are some data & analytics for some of you provided by Mr. Dupree.

• Devin Bush: Admittedly, maybe I was initially a bit too harsh on the young man as he is coming off of an injury and yes the Defense was much better with him than without him last year. So for him, I will say I am on the fence for now . However, I cannot tell the folks here how many times I have heard the following about Mr. Bush here on The Board.
  
  "We reached for him. We gave up too much for him. We picked the wrong Devin."

Final Thoughts.

Yes, overall I think the Pittsburgh Steelers do a terrific job in Drafting. This, from my observations of being a Steelers fan for nearly 50 years now. However, keep in mind that the thread was but a sub-set of data from a specific time line. And again it was OPINION. And again, remember “class”:

“An opinion may be supported by facts and principles, in which case it becomes an argument."

Now, If anyone here wants to “take it” to that kind of research level. I mean hard core primary sources. Analyzing every down that the players have played. Comparing them to their predecessors on this team and players on other teams present and old, then be my guest.

This was a cognitive snapshot thought of those 11 players and what they did for us as 1st Round Draft Choices when they played for the Pittsburgh Steelers and only the Steelers. Again, it was not about comparing our these 11 players to anyone else but just looking at their personal "Bodies of Work" while playing for us. You either think they lived up to the "hype" that goes along with being a 1st Round Draft Choice or not.



STEELWINDS The East Side Kid

 

You guys don't know what you're talking if you think Dupree wasn't a good player for the Steelers, he was also good against the run, look at the Steelers run defense after he got injured last season.

 

This was serious, I meant 2013

 

I automatically took it as Your Usual Smart A$$ self when I seen the Year. LOL. Now I will take it seriously.

 

I agree. I thought He was pretty good if You look at production with games played, and last year He was really coming on Here. Though He has been Injured Quite a bit, but overall I thought He was above Good. JMO.

 

Thank you for the warm fluffy feeling

 

Anytime Friend LoL

 

Did I hurt your feefees by disagreeing with you?

 

Before you embarrass yourself any more, go back and look, you double posted

Think before posting