10 year predicted win totals, the national media, and us

I was pondering the reasons behind the gulf between what we think of the Steelers', and by extension Tomlin's performance over the last decade and that of the national media in general and how to measure that. This came about because of a couple of things:

a) my own personal perception that we think our players are better than they really are
b) that Steeler Nation as a whole thinks Tomlin sucks while the national media in general consider him a very good coach
c) we believe the team has underperformed in the last decade or so.

I went back and checked the predicted win totals for the last ten seasons, 2014-2023. The hypothesis is that the predicted win total is a reflection of how good the public perceives the team to be going into a season. (It may probably a bit high since a lot of the action for any team is going to come from the team's fanbase who probably are more optimistic than the general public and since books want to even out the action.)

Assuming that we come in under this year, since the preseason total was 8.5, the Steelers have gone 6-3-1 over the last decade. That is clearly exceeding the expectations of the public markets and I believe goes a long way to explaining the gap between Tomlin's perceived coaching acumen.

This is not to defend Tomlin or the Rooney's, because imo he's past his best by date here and because I think the Rooney's are stuck in the past. It's merely trying to explain why what we think is at odds with what the nation thinks.

In short, we think the Steelers should be better while the public thinks they outperform what they should be more often than not.

 

I'm sorry. I spit my tea on that stuff.

Player Acquistion - That's your GMs. They tap the scouting (pro/College) and target the players identified that will fit best into the system and provide plays that impact game outcomes. They also select a 'General' the coach that has a vision along with them to provide, key words, 'A winning team.'

Coaching - They are in charge of instructing and implementing the team philosophy and strategies as well as being on zero ground level - They plan to utilize those skills provided to them and mold them into a winning team.

Ownership has the very high-altitude control of the previous two. If Player Acquisition is failing, then the GM's are on the hook. If Coaching is if failing, then the GM's and the coach is on the hook. *Mr Rooney should have never had to step in on the Matt Canada issue. Mike Tomlin should have said from the get-go, let's go a different way.. or even the GM should say, 'I don't think Matt is up to it.' Ownership also has to put trust in the other two to make decisions... but yet not afraid to say 'wait a minute, this is not working.' Meddling Owners become a very big issue.

All have to be on the same page and the same goal. All three have to be firing and not misfiring.

What has happened?
Stubbornness. The Steeler way.
We stick to contracts (Matt Canada)
We stick with our Head Coach (Too long)
We don't make a lot of changes (GM and Head Coach - players hanging around past their prime or where we could trade them for draft assets and keep the team fresh.)
We promote from within.

As a result, we are predictable. Stale.
We allow head case critical players to fester.
We stick with bad designs.

Mr Rooney just needs to pull in his advisors and clean house and bring in fresh perspective.
We want to see how to get most out of a TJ Watt - If that means letting him freelance then we need the Defense to be able to support that sort of approach.
If we need a franchise QB, we pick one and add the best components to help that process.
Etc.....

Coaching these days seems to want to play the analytics game. So, we need a coach that can do that.
We need players that play into those things.
A part time TE and two head case WR's is not helping out at all.

 

You missed my point entirely.

I'm not trying to address what's wrong or how to correct things or what each function within the franchise does well or not.

I'm trying to say why the national media and public's perception of the franchise and Tomlin are so out of line with our own. The thesis is that in general the public's expectations are lower than ours and that the team has more often than not exceeded the public's expectations while not meeting ours.

 

If I start complaining about Tomlin to my friends who do not follow the AFC closely, they say we have one of the best HC's in the NFL.

I read what other on here say about our players and I thought we were the cat's meow starting season. I agree with you, many think our guys are better then they are.

 

On ESPN this morning Mike Greenberg brought up the subject that the Steeler fans want Tomlin fired. The entire panel including Greenberg said that this was insane and he is a "great coach" "an elite coach" and so on. Dominique Foxworth said that the Steelers are a terrible team but Tomlin has them playing .500 ball every year. There is a light years difference between what the fans say about Tomlin and the national media.

 

remove the HOF QB from Tomlin and how great of a coach would he have been? Would the accolades remained the same? I dont think so. I get that Belicheck isnt the same without Brady and so on, so that goes to show what a generational talent can do to a coaches resume. I remember when Belicheck got fired in Cleveland for being a lousy coach, did he get genious level when he arrived in NE, no he got Brady.....