OKAY all you draft geniuses

There are a lot of variables. How far back are you talking about trading? Couple spots or end of the 1st etc?

 

Draft geniuses? That sounds like a title that has too much pressure associated with it.

Trade scenarios are almost always consummated in real-time depending on who is available. I have no doubt that teams work out a lot of "maybe" deals in the days leading into the draft, but in general those deals are subject to who's available when the pick arrives. I remember reading an interview with a front office exec a few years ago - can't remember who. I can best explain what he discussed by giving an example: if their pick arrived, and they had suitors for the pick, they would see how many guys they really wanted who they thought would go before their next round's selection, and then decide whether - and how far - to trade back. If there was only 1 guy, then they would make the pick and not trade back. If there were 2 or 3 guys, they would risk trading back maybe 3-5 slots. If there were 4 or 5 guys they wanted, then they would be comfortable trading back 8-10 slots knowing that other teams had different needs and different draft boards (and being comfortable that at least one of their guys would be there).

I think that deciding to trade up is bit simpler. There's a guy you covet, you don't think he'll be there for your natural draft pick in that round, and you know what picks you're willing to sacrifice to get him. If he drops into the range where your ammo could be acceptable to someone, you start making calls to see if you can make the jump. The same could apply for a position. For example, you like 3 tackles entering the round, and you want one of them. You want to wait and see if one is going to fall to you, but if you see them start going, you should have an idea what ammo you're willing to use to move up and secure one of them.

I am usually a proponent of trading down, but rarely would I want to do it before our pick arrives. You never know who will be there. you wouldn't have wanted to trade down in the 1st round before the 2012 draft based on projections of who would be available at our pick, only to then see that DeCastro would have been there for our pick had we not traded back.

When I look at this draft, I see potential trade parters in the Jets at 18, the Dolphins at 19 and the Cards at 20. Each of those would net a 3rd rounder as compensation. Where we're sitting at #15, someone who is projected higher will probably drop. I could see the Jets looking to move up to our spot for Evans, Ebron or possibly even Lee or Beckham. They need weapons desperately. I could see the Dolphins trading up for Lewan or Z. Martin, or maybe Dennard, Gilbert or Jernigan. I think for the Cards we're also looking O line or Ebron as a possibility.

 

I was actually thinking about creating a thread on this topic, but I'll just list it here.

I've been thinking of possible trade d own scenarios, with teams that I think could come up. Here they are:

1.
To SF 49ers:
pick #15

To Pittsburgh Steelers:
picks #30, #61 & #94

SF wins on the trade chart but only by a small amount. We could play hardball and request pick #56 from SF instead of #61 and then we would have a slight edge.

Having done the Mock Draft for SF, they are LOADED with talent and don't need all of these picks. They could easily move up and get a really good WR that they wouldn't get at #30. Or perhaps they would come up and grab the #2 CB.

This draft is deep and I think the extra picks would definitely benefit us.

2a.
To San Diego Chargers:
pick #15

To Pittsburgh Steelers:
picks #25 & #57

San Diego may be looking for that #2 CB or a falling OLB. This is a dead even trade according t o the Chart. We could then use this pick to trade down even further as seen below.

2b.
Trade down (Again) with the Jaguars:
To Jacksonville Jaguars:
pick #25

To Pittsburgh Steelers:
picks (#39 & #70)

I've read alot of rumours of the Jags wanting to trade back into Round 1 to get a QB like Derek Carr. They don't have the firepower to move too far up. If they moved their 2nd and 3rd (picks #39 & 70), it might get them close to pick #24 or #25. This is a scenario, where if we were to move down once, where we could potentially move down again. I think the Jags will want to jump Cleveland at #26.

So in the end:
We give up pick #15
and receive picks #39, #57 & #70

In a deep draft like this, I think we would definitely re-stock the cupboards. Couple those 3 picks with our #46 pick, and I think we would be getting 4 starting calibre players. Its a long way t o drop down, granted, but given the depth, could be worth a look.

3.
To Miami Dolphins:
pick #15

To Pittsburgh Steelers:
picks #19 & #50.

Its a hefty price to pay as we certainly would be winning on the Chart. Miami is in a desperate situation though. I think they realized their mistakes with Mike Wallace and drafting of Dion Jordan last year as both underachieved. They may be willing to make a desperate move in order to get the guy they want. There's an interesting g roup of teams behind us with Dallas, Baltimore and NY Jets, who all have similar type needs. Jumping all three could be a coup for a couple of teams. You could look at similar deals with the out of conference Arizona Cardinals or Green Bay Packers too.

In the end, I am not advocating for any of these moves, just food for thought. this is a deep draft, and if you could accumulate 2nd and 3rd round picks, its really not a bad price to pay.