Colts vs Cowboys

I’ve been looking at the possibility that the outcome of the Colts-Cowboys game could impact the Steelers and we, Steeler fans. To begin, this all hinges on the Steelers beating the Chiefs and clinching a playoff berth.

First scenario – Steelers are 11-5 and AFC North champs. If the Cowboys beat the Colts, than the Steelers are the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] seed. The likely wildcards will be Ravens and either Bengals or Chargers. Assume Ravens win out. If Bengals beat the Broncos then the Steelers would host the Bengals. This IMHO is the best scenario. If the Bengals lose to the Broncos, and the Chargers win out then they are the 6[SUP]th[/SUP] seed. Steelers would host the Chargers, second best scenario.

Second scenario -If Colts beat the Cowboys, that would set up a Steelers hosting the Ravens matchup. I hate the Ravens, but the Steelers have had no advantage over them over the last 5 years. It’s been pretty much even. At least the game will be at home.

As for the Cowboys, if they lose to the Colts, then they may not even make the playoffs. If I’m correct, the Steelers and Cowboys are tied for the most playoff wins. So, I would like to see the Cowboys not make the playoffs. I also want the Steelers to win 4 playoff games this year, but I digress.

Now, assume the Steelers beat the Chiefs, but lose to the Bengals. In this case, I believe the Ravens would be AFC North champs, Bengals the 5[SUP]th[/SUP] seed, and Steelers the 6[SUP]th[/SUP] seed. This sets up a game between the Steelers and the Colts in Indy. This, IMHO is the worst scenario. Of course, if the Colts lose to the Cowboys, likely the Ravens would be the 3 seed and the Steelers the 6[SUP]th[/SUP] seed, setting up a playoff game in Baltimore.

Obviously, I want the Steelers to be the AFC North Champs. As much as it pains me, looks like I’m going to pull for the Colts to lose this weekend (I can’t in good consciousness say I’m pulling for the Cowboys to $$$, F’ it, I can’t say it).

Your thoughts?

 

There's other scenarios that can play out. The reality is the road to the Superbowl likely goes through New England, so it doesn't matter much who we play first. We may have to end up playing both Denver and new England. Those are the games that worry me.

But let's just get to the playoffs first

 

I know you're a big better and I was curious if you knew like the actual "odds" that we make it to the Super Bowl. I would be EXTREMELY surprised if we do.

 

It changes every week. I haven't looked at it in a few weeks. I did put $100 on the steelers to won the SB at 32 to 1 odds, but that was a few weeks ago. The odds wouldn't be that good now, and they'd be even worse if you're just talking making it to the SB and not the outcome.

 

So if they are 32 to 1 odds just as a hypothetical and you win then would that mean you would get like $3,200?

 

That is the right math , minus the house rake or cut which is around 10%. I bet $1,000,00 on the Steelers to win the SB before the season started. The odds then were 35 to 1. If they win the SB I get $35,000.00 minus the house cut. If they lose or don't get to the SB I get zero.

 

Dang! that's what a set of tires cost for my truck!

 

Where are you betting that the house takes a cut of your winnings? That doesn't make any sense to me. The house keeps your losses, not a percentage of your winnings. You're betting in the wrong spots man.

If I win at 32 to 1 odds, I win $3,200 and I keep 100% of that. Hell, next time you want to place a bet, just send me the money and I'll place it for you and I'll only keep half of what the house is charging you now

 

true, the road to the Super Bowl may go through NE. For that to matter, the Steelers have to win the first week of the playoffs. My point was that the Cowboys-Colts game could impact who they play week one. And while I hate the Cowboys, a win for them seems to favor the Steelers.

 

Thanks for the offer but I don't really need any help. I think we just are misunderstand what I said. I wasn't implying the house cut or raked the winnings. The house portion is from the original wager. That is the way I have done it for years and it has worked out well. I'm up about 6,000,00 this season between football and the ponies.

 

Wow, talk about defensive. You gave horrible advice man so you were corrected. If you don't want people correcting you, then don't spread bad information. You said I would win $3,200 minus whatever the cut is that the house takes. You also used the word rake, which doesn't apply to sports betting, it applies to poker. That couldn't be more wrong and anyone who actually bets should know that.

Anyway, I'm done derailing this thread. To answer the original question, the Steelers are paying 13 to 1 to make it to the SB. The Pats, Colts and Broncos are the only teams ahead of them in the AFC.

 

As a STEELER fan I have to root for Cowboys this week.......I HATE THAT!!

 

If you read the correction I made to the post you would see I was explaining the house cut is not on the winnings but on the original wager. Your right I still use the word rake from a previous life. As far as actually betting I have been doing it for a long time especially the last seven years. Your right I have gotten too defensive recently. I think we were just looking at it from different directions and if that still is not the way you see it let me know.

 

The way I explained the payout on a bet was not very clear and maybe the other guy has a different view because we obviously don't use the same source to bet. I only bet Vegas and the way they work is the 10/11 ratio, You bet 11 to win 10 or 110 to win 100 or whatever you want to bet. So if you bet 1,000 and win you get paid roughly 900 plus the 1,000 from your original bet or 1,900 back. I probably did confuse the issue by jumping back and forth between the word cut and the work rake. They both mean the same thing, Vegas is taking some of the money as a cost of wagering. The correct term is cut. I sometimes use the terms interchangeably because I have played a lot of poker in Vegas at a younger age. I didn't want to have confused you with the way I had originally laid it out. The other guy may have betting sources that handle things different than Vegas. But this is the way it's done in Vegas. Good luck.

I have to figure with you being in the profession you are in that maybe the collection plat has been a little light and you are looking for a way to generate some additional income. Sorry if I was confusing before. Hope this clears things up.

 

I got ya FFL.....I call it "The Vig"...I know thats not correct. The vig is what you owe the shark each week on top of what you borrowed. Its kinda the same. But doesnt double or triple if you dont pay because you payed it up front. You want to lay 50 on a game you have to give the casino 55. You want to bet 200 will cost you 220. Even up odds you lay 220 to win 400. You win you walk away with 400.The 200 you bet the 200 you won. The "vig" of 20 goes to the house for taking the bet.

 

Well actually I don't gamble and was just curious about it and what the odds are that the Steelers win the Super Bowl. Shaner is from Canada and that might be why it is different for him. I honestly wasn't confused by those words because I didn't know the difference ya know? And trust me when you pastor a baptist church the plate is always light. LOL.

 

I'm seeing 35-1 again this week. there are a few sites ODDSSHARK that show a range of 25-1 to 38-1


it fluctuates as the year goes on

I refer to this kind of bet as "future bet"

 

How much the house takes is referred to as juice in sports betting. Where and how I bet is the exact same as Vegas. The odds aren't always -110, which means the house takes $10 (which is the juice) on a $100 bet. The odds are different for every bet.

So for example, with the steelers paying 32 to 1 odds to win the Superbowl, there is no juice. The house pays out the full $3,200 if you win that bet.

When the bet payout has a - symbol beside the number, it means the house takes a cut (the juice) and if you win, the payout is less than 2 to 1. If there's a + symbol beside the payout, it means there is no juice and your winnings will be more than 2 to 1. That usually means you're betting on an underdog or betting on something that statistically is unlikely to happen (such as the steelers winning the Superbowl), so the payout is more.

The house doesn't always take a cut, they rely on you losing the bet to make their money

 

from what i understand colts has lose least one or 2 of their last games for steeler be number 3 seed but steelers has win thier game too for that to happen

 

true
I call it juice too
and there is no juice on future bets

I've seen bets where there is (-500) for example if you are betting broncos straight up over raiders you get your money back you placed but only win .20 on the dollar $100 bet will net you 20$ plus the return of your "moneyline" bet

most point spread bets are (-110) but can fluctuate to (+ or -) juice

 

true

they are one game ahead of the steelers in wins right now
we finish with the same record at the end as them we win tie break