Stats on kickoff returns?

Anyone know a of any stats on outcome of kickoff returns since the rule change? Sure there is a chance of breaking one, but this seems to be offset by the chance of getting really lousy field position. I know some stats sites calculate probability based advantages of different types of plays - anyone know of anything related to this?

 

I hate the rule change. They ought to just spot the ball at the 20 and eliminate the kickoff altogether.

 

Or if you kick it out of the back of the end zone the ball comes out to the 35 yd line.

 

The KO rule was changed for the 2011 season. The total number of returns has reduced by about 1/3. The NFL averaged total 2000 KO returns in the 2008-2010 seasons and averages 1300 in the 3 seasons since. KO returns for TD have dropped from 18 to 10. The average return is about a yd longer now.

 

I was wondering if any saber metric geeks have calculated the benefit to scoring or field position for running it out or taking a knee.

 

Heres a link that discusses it. Avg Line of scrimmage has dropped by 3yds. But scoring has gone up anyway. 3yds per possession a multiplied by 10 possession a game comes to 30 yds, which probably translates to a loss of 2pts/game. But other factors have apparently made up the difference.

not sure it answers the question of the risk/reward of making a return or taking a knee.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/impact-nfls-kickoff-rule-change

 

That's a fantastic idea.

 

what?

why not just give the kicking team 3 pts if it goes through the up rights like so many kickers (but ours) can do

THEN
give the receiving team the ball



it's all about scoring baby!!!!




I can hear it now


FROM DOWNTOWN
A THREE POINTER!!!!!!!

 

Don't know about the stats, but I watched a lot of College Football this weekend and didn't see half the flags on returns as I see in one game in the NFL.....

 

Thanks, I figured FO had looked at this, but I couldn't find it. I think given the steelers field position woes, running it out may be worth it. Take a shot.

 

I wonder if injuries dropped from less returns? I doubt it. Wasn't that the whole basis behind the rule change, at least on the surface?

I agree, just place the ball at the 20 and get rid of the whole charade.

 

I do think a penalty for kicking it into the end zone would be a good thing. This would keep the game moving and start kickers showing some control and skill.

 

If I read the article correctly, there are about as many injuries on the KOs that are returned, but the number of KOs returned is way down, so the number of injuries total have been reduced.

 

NFL teams kicked off from the 35-yard line from 1974 to 1993 but changed the rule because of low scoring (imagine that). The writing was on the wall when the league reduced the number of players allowed in a blocking wedge to two in 2009. The owners voted 26-6 for the new rule so I guess we'll have to get used to it.

"We've been told it's really a player-safety oriented rule, trying to reduce the number of kickoff returns," Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said.

 

Yeah I kinda like this idea as well

 

So Dri Archer is a luxury pick @#3

 

Where there really that many iunjuries on kick-offs. I did not seem to be high to me, I actually think more injuries occurr per play on regular LOS plays.