Would you make this deal, knowing the outcome?

The Scenario

The Pittsburgh Steelers complete a trade with the Green Bay Packers for QB Aaron Rodgers.

Steelers receive

Aaron Rodgers
2023 6th round draft pick
2024 5th round draft pick

Packers receive

2022 1st round draft pick
2023 1st and 4th round draft picks
2024 1st and 3rd round draft picks

The Outcome

In 2022 the Pittsburgh Steelers finish with a 14-3 record and win the AFC North Championship, the AFC Conference Championship, and their 7th Super Bowl Championship. Aaron Rodgers is named both League and Super Bowl MVP.

In 2023 the Pittsburgh Steelers finish 12-5 and again win the AFC North Championship. This time around the Steelers go into the playoffs with multiple injuries on both sides of the ball. The Steelers lose in the Divisional round of the playoffs.

In 2024 Aaron Rodgers officially retires from football. The Steelers are left trying to fill multiple voids on both sides of the ball without a 1st or a 3rd round draft selection.

The Question

If this ended up being the outcome of an Aaron Rodgers trade, would you make the deal? On one hand the Steelers win a Super Bowl, and play two great seasons of football. On the other hand the 2024 team is left short handed and without the needed draft capitol to rebuild.

 

To answer my own question, I make the deal. 1 Super Bowl win and 2 seasons of being a legit bye week contender is worth the price.

 

If guaranteed a SB Win probably, but How long are We bad is the Question???

 

Just for the sake of progressing the scenario, lets say that the Steelers face 5 consecutive non-playoff years following the 2023 season.

 

I do not make the trade knowing the current state of the Steelers. I know that's not in your scenario, but I take the Rams as an example. Thay got to a SB with Goff, made a trade and won with Stafford. In no way can you conclude that the trade was any guarantee, they did not glide through the POs as a championship looking team, and barely won against Cincy. In the end they have a SB, but the cracks are already starting to show.

If the Steelers had went all in, built a team that could get there then you might make that trade, this team is not that team. So no I do not make that trade.

 

Arch Manning may declare for the draft after 2024. We will need to tank for one year. I’d take that

 

Wow!!!
No I'm not so sure. 5 years is along time. I'd take the SB win, but I can't take 5 years of playing so bad we don't make the playoffs. I know We haven't won a playoff in awhile, but We didn't have 2 sit through 5 years straight that we sucked bad enough We couldn't even get there.

 

If you knew the outcome was a definite Super Bowl it’s a no brainer. I make the deal all day long.

The team will be a train wereck afterwards following three years without a high draft pick but you can turn a team around in two seasons now if you have a good GM

 

While the swap of Goff and Stafford is easily the most obvious change between the Rams two recent SB appearances I think there were other factors that were more in play this go around. The opponent they were facing, the defense was slightly better in the SB vs the Pats, healthier o. Offense too. I think McVey played cautiously and didn't want to get blown out by Brady and BB and that kept the game close but ultimately cost them as well. The case can also be made for would the Rams have done as well without the trade for Miller, the FA sigings late in the season of OBJ and Weddle. That being said you have a good point.

 

So we are assuming a straight player and picks for draft picks alone? No retention of salary or based on a reworked contract? If that is the case then I wouldn't even with a guaranteed title because it hurts everything you are planning 5 years down the road.

 

Yes.

Superbowls > Draft Picks

 

I agree with you. That's one of the things that scares me away from drafting a QB this year. If you get it wrong you suck for 5 years anyway.

 

On this ...I totally agree

 

Yes straight player for picks deal. Totally new contact signed.

 

I say yes when your prize is the best QB in the NFL... AR is a lot more mobile than Ben and he has a much better deep ball, these two things will improve the OL play and jump start the run game ...

 

In a way the Rams model makes sense and of course worked for them. They have a remarkable way of finding lower level talent and developing them. I forget the exact number, but besides signing and trading for proven talent ( and giving up high draft picks), they still have a lot of home grown talent on the roster. The issue is refilling those aging rentals, and keeping that talent when you have shoved so much cap money into the future. They have a SB, so it worked. Can they keep it up for a long period?

In some ways it reminds me of the Old Raiders and 'skins. Building with aging vet cast offs. The Rams guys were not cast offs, but still piecing the right parts at the right time.

 

Arch hasn't even started college yet, so no he won't be eligible for the 2024 draft.

 

I say no, Steelers are a few players away to take on AR

 

To get us that mystical and elusive 7th Super Bowl win and put us back on top of the heap in Super Bowl wins…I’m probably doing it.

But since there are no guarantees and that scenario is highly unlikely, no way I give up that kind of draft capital for a nearly 40 year old quarterback.

 

No, No, a thousand times No.

 

The problem with that scenario is you can't guarantee the Super Bowl. In fact, I think it is very unlikely. Would Rodgers even be the best quarterback in the AFC? Hell, he might not even be the most productive quarterback in the division if the Bengals can give Burrow even decent protection. That deal would make it very difficult to fill all the other holes on this team, and there are many.

 

I dislike Aaron Rodgers and would hate seeing him in black and gold. That said, I'd take the deal in a heartbeat. Reason being I older and it probably would be my last chance at a SB. I'm a younger man I'd say hell no to that deal.

 

I would make the trade if this scenario would be feasible. 2019 is probably the last year where this given trade and scenario would be feasible.

Where and how do you build the team around Rogers to make this work? Rogers would suck up almost all of the available cap space and you'd probably damn near make it impossible to extend Minkah after the 22 season.

 

The scenario is hypothetical. It's not meant to be a real life guarantee of a championship.

A lot of people were saying the same things about Brady when he went to Tampa.

 

The deal would have to be cap friendly for it to work, and I think it would be. Aaron Rodgers wants to win a title. You can't do that if you cripple your team with a one sided contract before the season starts.

I think guys like JuJu, Haden, Edmunds, Tuitt, etc are all going to be willing to play here on team friendly deals if they think they have a chance to win a title with Rodgers. Sign a veteran O lineman or two, and use the rest of your draft picks on D.