EARLY 2012 Draft Strategy Talk

I always struggle with ranking needs this far before a draft, but I can put them in tiers.

Tier one -- in the first round, take BPA among:

-OG
For obvious reasons. Our RG position has been in flux since Kendall Simmons' body turned into cheese, and still is not settled. People have their favorites for the job (Legursky, Foster), but the truth is it's still subpar and unsettled. The LG position is settled, but subpar. Both need replaced. I wouldn't be surprised or upset if we drafted two guards in the first five rounds this year.

-NT
For obvious reasons. Hampton has been an absolute stud for a decade, and Hoke has been an absolute stud of a backup for nearly as long, but neither of those guys will be able to do it much longer. We'll need a replacement soon, and this team hasn't taken a flyer on a guy EVER. Not even a 7th rounder. Part of me thinks when they finally pick someone, they're going to go high. But another part of me thinks they will try to skate by a little longer. Maybe by next year none of the NTs on the roster will be full-time capable anymore, but combined they can get the job done. Also, NTs are spending more and more time on the sideline, especially ours, so maybe the team will feel more comfortable with a mid-rounder at first, despite how valuable Big Snack proved to be after being taken in the first round.

I have Guard ranked slightly above Nose Tackle, because there are two of them, they both stink, and we currently have nothing on the horizon. A lot of people think OG is not important, and LT is the only OL position that really matters. That's BS. Having bad guards will kill a team, and it's killed us since Faneca and Simmons left. Also giving OG the edge is Steve McLendon. I'm nowhere near convinced he's the future, but he's a decent body to fill the cracks that Hampton and Hoke will leave over the coming year(s).

Tier one and a half -- these positions seem like top priority, but our promising youth already on the squad might drop them down a notch:

-ILB
I love Farrior, but this should probably be his last season as a starter. If he wants to hang on forever like Jerry Rice for the love of the game, I'm all too happy to keep him as a rotating backup or something along those lines. But we need some fresh blood in there. This selection will be heavily determined on what the team thinks of Sylvester. He's a fan favorite. Personally, I love the guy's explosiveness, instincts, and general style of play, but I haven't seen him going against starters more than a handful of plays. Given the fact that he still hasn't unseated Larry Foote for #2 on the depth chart, I'm guessing the coaching staff has less optimism than the fan base about Stevenson Sylvester's ability to carry Farrior's torch.

-CB
First, you can never have too many good corners, especially nowadays. Second, although Ike is solid, we can probably only count on 3 more years from him. Anything after that might be considered bonus. Third, WE HAVE NO ONE ELSE!! Okay, that's not true. But the team seems done with McFadden (I'm on record wanting to keep him as a backup and special teamer), Gay has been on a hot streak, but still only plays well about 15% of the time if you look at his whole career, Keenan Lewis has finally proven he is good enough to play with the likes of William Gay, but of course that's not nearly good enough. He'll have to keep improving or get lost. The wild cards are Curtis Brown and Cortez Allen. I think Brown looks the part of what we need, but has not forced his way onto the field yet. Allen has leapfrogged him to #4, despite being hurt for almost all of preseason. It's safe to say these guys are promising, but a million miles from being proven. So do we take a CB in the first round, if the opportunity presents itself? If both these guys turn out to be busts, we'd be fools not to. If they both turn out to be starters, it would be something of a waste (maybe you can't have too many good corners, but spending a 1st rounder on a dime back is nuts when our OG spots are just as bad with no promising help on the way).

For both of these positions, if someone that really knocks your socks off falls right into your lap in the first round, you have to pull the trigger. But if it's a toss up, you have to go with the tier one positions first. If the youngsters Brown, Allen and Sylvester turn out to be studs, you don't want to have drafted a first rounder and then have no spot for him (Harrison-Timmons. We lucked out with that one). OG and NT have no other options -- especially OG -- so that's not a concern, and it's a spot that needs help every bit as much as CB. Possibly more. I can't stand seeing pressure get to Ben right up the middle, and our run blocking is still inconsistent.

Tier two -- allow these positions into the BPA mix from the third round on:

-FS
I like Clark, probably more than most Steeler fans. But he could drop dead at any minute with the way he plays. Even if he doesn't, we'll probably need a replacement in 2 or 3 years anyway. This is a position where I like to really groom a guy before tossing him in.

-SS
See above. Troy's career could end any time. Even if it doesn't, it's not too early to plan for his eventual retirement. We'll be a worse team when he leaves no matter how good his replacement is, but we want that to be as small a dropoff as possible (Aaron Smith to Ziggy Hood).

For both of these positions, a first rounder would be a waste due to time spent riding the pine (up to 3 years). A mid-rounder could compete with Mundy in the short term, and take over one of the jobs permenently after awhile.

Tier three -- specialty positions, only if a special player falls into our laps in round 5 or later:

-FB
This is just something for me. I believe a fullback helps the running and passing games, and does not hurt in any way whatsoever. BA (and by extension, Tomlin) is quick to badmouth the position and say he has no need for it, but he does use the fullback position all the time! He just puts a sub-mediocre tight end there and calls it a day. I don't get the joke. You put someone wearing #85 at fullback and call him a tight end? He is a tight end, that's what he's best at, but you're playing him at fullback! Where he stinks, by the way!! We never need three tight ends on the field at a time, and if we did, I'm sure it would be easier and less harmful to teach a fullback to line up at tight end than it is (clearly) to teach David Johnson how to lead block. So how about you drop the guy that can't catch, run routes, or lead block and just get someone that can't catch or run routes, but is really good at lead blocking, since that's what you're using him for anyway? Oh, but as a tight end he's a bigger threat out of the backfield, right? I mean, he didn't just cost us the Ravens game with a dropped pass that Dan Kreider (Mr. Threat Out Of The Backfield himself) would have caught. Ugh... If a true blocker falls into our laps in a late round, go for it. But these guys can be found as UDFAs (Kreider). You just have to look. They just aren't looking.

-K
I'm not as down on Suisham as some other fans. On the positive side, I feel comfortable with him from inside of 40 yards, which is important. I don't feel comfortable with him from outside of 40. Back on the positive side, I'm extremely comfortable with him on kickoffs. He was a big step up from Reed there, and delivered the touchbacks while the weather was nice. And he was not afraid to get in there and tackle! He really took down a couple guys, and not back at midfield, either. He got in there early, which is smart. However, that one teensy negative thing can't be overlooked. You need to have confidence your kicker will make a 45 yarder, and not punt while you're up by only 4 with a minute to go. If a star happens to fall to us late, fine. Otherwise I'm fine with UDFA competish.

-OT
A lot of people have this as a high need for us. Why? Colon will be back and healthy next year, showing us why he got all that money. That's RT locked down. Gilbert will either be looking like a young Jonathan Ogden at LT or filling in soundly at Guard while Starks holds down LT, if he's retained. Either way, the starting OT positions are taken care of, and I'm happy with those starters. I only put this on the list because it's a great position to have depth at (especially for us), and we could use a new swing guy (think Trai Essex + talent). So if a guy like that happens to fall to us late, go for it. Otherwise, I'm happy with our tackles.

Tier four -- luxuries:

-RB
I should just call this position "Darren Sproles." I love all of our running backs. All of them. I want to re-sign Mendenhall (hopefully for cheap), and consider him underrated. I love Redman. Dwyer is most likely a freakin' beast who could start for most teams in the league. Moore is still awesome at what he does. Batch is supposedly a strong candidate for unseating Moore, a coach favorite. All the reports from camp before he tore his ACL had him as by far the most impressive rookie, showing not only blitz pickup ability, but great running and receiving skills as well. But none of these guys are blazers. Mendenhall's the fastest, and he's only a little bit fast. We don't have any open field knifing burners on the squad. Most people don't. But I wouldn't mind taking a very late flyer on a tiny guy in the Sproles mold and let him compete in camp. They can be real nice to have.

-"TE" (WR)
Heath is my favorite tight end of all time, and in my opinion the best in the league. Saunders has potential, but we haven't really seen much. Johnson can do only one thing well (block in-line), and he's only average at that, and he's never even asked to do it. And we don't need three tight ends on the field at a time, and Saunders can do it fine, so why is he on the roster? Oy. If we could get one of those Finley/Clark/Gronkowski/Hernandez/Dickson I'm-just-a-big-fat-receiver-and-I'm-not-even-going-to-pretend-to-block-anybody guys to be the number two, I think that would give the passing game yet another dimension.

-DE
Assuming Smith retires, whoever this guy is will be #4 on the depth chart behind Keisel, Hood and Heyward. The new Nick Eason. We don't even really need to draft someone. If it were up to me, the #4 guy wouldn't see any reps anyway, unless he was so good he demanded it. I'd be fine with an UDFA.

Things I didn't mention:

-WR
Even if Ward retires, Wallace-Sanders-Brown is a fearsome starting lineup. With the possibility of Cotchery as #4? Fuggettabowdit. For #5, there's always guys like Battle and Grisham. I don't see the need for another one, really. I'd rather bring back Sweed and get him healthy before spending a pick on WR.

-QB
We can wait a couple more years before shopping for Ben's replacement. Leftwich is young enough. Batch will probably retire. I'm comfortable with Dixon, who has been in the system forever. Why waste a pick on another St. Pierre or Jacobs or Martin or... Dixon?

-OLB
Harrison. Check. Woodley. Check. I am buying into Worilds and Carter. They will still need time, but they have it. No need to waste a pick on someone who will either not make the roster, or force us to bump off one of these promising guys. Throw Timmons into the mix and anyone drafted here would be #5 at best.

-TE (regular)
Is Heath Miller still alive? ...Okay, we're good here. Saunders seems balanced enough, although as I said I wouldn't mind replacing him with a receiving stud type. I also wouldn't mind if he turned out to be that guy.

-C

-P
Maybe Sepulveda comes back. Maybe Kapinos does. I'm happy with either, or a combination like we've had the last two years. No need to spend a pick when we've got two capable guys on the job.

-RS
Antonio Brown is not just capable of handling this, but very good at it. I love being a threat here.

-LS
Although I am sick to death of Greg Warren's filthy antics, both on and off the field, I can't justify spending a draft pick to replace him. Nah, I'm just kidding. He's fine.

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So where does that leave us? Below I'll put my ideal scenario for our drafts over the next two years. I'll be making the assumptions that Sylvester, C. Brown and C. Allen turn out to be average players. I'm also assuming we will be picking somewhere between #20 and #32 both years. I've only taken a brief look at what actual players might be available, and will mostly be going by where value can traditionally be found, and where we are good at finding it (for the Steelers' scouting, I'll take a 5th round linebacker over a 4th round cornerback).

If the value works out, I'd be thrilled with something like:

2012 2013

1. OG 1. CB (traded up a dozen spots)
2. ILB 2. S
3. NT 3. Traded away
4. OG 4. "TE"(WR)
5. CB 5. Traded away
6. FB 6. OT
7. K 7. DE

Yes, another mid-late round CB that will probably be a total failure. But we couldn't get one in round one, and after that no one would be able to help us right away. They'd be stuck behind the second year players. So we take yet another random stab in the dark, and then wait a year before getting a shutdown guy in 2012 (like we could have done this year...). With these two drafts, the defense becomes set at all three levels (even if only looking at the first three rounds), with a protoge behind either Clark or Polamalu. The OL is cleaned up nicely, and we add a couple of real weapons to our offense with a true fullback and a Hernandezy tight end. The kicking game is solved forever and ever and ever, and Jon Scott has a little competition, if he's still here in 2013.

The reason I ended up trading our 3/5 in 2013 is that I didn't feel I really needed the positions I had slated to go there. I had a WR in the 3rd, in case Wallace left us. But then I put that thought out of my mind because I couldn't bear it. And then I just picked up the swing OT in the 6th instead of the 5th. Big diff, he probably won't make the team either way. The more I thought about it, the more I wanted to throw a high quality corner into our mix and just not care if it means wasting Allen or Brown away. But if we don't get someone in the first round, that's just not going to happen, which is why I waited a year and traded up. I think many times the quality of CB you can get in the mid-late teens (Amukamara) is much better than the kind you can get in the late 20s or early 30s (Dowling). For other positions, like guard, nose tackle, or linebacker, it either doesn't matter so much or we're better at scouting it. I'd love to hear everyone else's thoughts.

 

man that was a long post

1st rd 0T or OG
2nd rd CB
3rd rd CB
4th rd RB
5th rd QB
6th rd ILB
7th rd NT

 

Forget about sweed. Don't waste a pick on a kicker, plenty UDFA. Need talent at CB and OG, so I agree with high picks for them.

 

i'd like to see one good LG and one guy that has played guard and center.

NT will be a position of need.

FS and SS can easily be upgraded with guys that have speed and better coverage ability. i think this spot could be a need before cb this year. allen will become a FA after the season and has never made an impact or shown the ability to stay healthy anywhere he's been. though i think we could have a couple of options already here ( cortez allen or possibly gay) at FS. i think either could be a good coverage FS down the road and they will be familiar with our system. it depends on what plans they have for tez, but i think he needs time on the field.

as for TE, i wish we could see more of what saunders has, but we are still waiting for the proper use of heath, so until the mindset and offense changes to that position being a priority, we may be ok with what we have.

wr. i wouldn't mind seeing one drafted at some point. yes while we are alright with wallace,sanders and brown, we still could use that extra guy because of hines age, battle being a FA and cotchery only signed for this year. one injury as we saw last week will really limit us. besides that we have been hitting on wr's as of late, one more weapon couldn't hurt. if one goes down , we don't miss a beat.

qb, i'd take a flyer on a decent young guy to come in and learn. i don't think it's to early to start our process of finding a talented backup for ben. let's face it ben takes a beating and it would be nieve to think it can continue for 5-7 more years without him having to miss some considerable time at some point. if we can find a big, smart quick release kid to come in, why not.

 

I say grab the best corner avalible with first pick. unless some great lineman falls to us. I am still hoping to be picking late. Nose tackle to me is tricky. I think good ones can be found in mid to late rounds. ilb is a concern but I think we can wait a year and see if sylvester is going to work out and foote can buy us a couple of years because I think he is playing better than he ever has. I think corner and saftey are major needs. I would be happy with starks-foster-pouncey-colon-gilbert next year. kemo sucks and if we draft his replacement I would not be crushed I just think we have more time with o-line than we do the secondary

 

there not going to take a CB early took two this year! besides Ol is a pressing NEED

 

Yeah, it was a total throw-away pick. But so are most 7th rounders. I'd only really do that if there was a guy available that I was sure would be a hit. I don't mind spending a very late pick on a kicker if he's a great kicker. I would have spent our 6th to get Henery. Maybe even our 5th, although I don't think I could pass up Chris Carter.

 

Unless Mclendon is the future NT, I would not put them drafting one high out of the realm of possibility. NT is the cog that make this 3-4 thing work. Maybe not 1st round, but definitely 2. Casey was a first rounder.

I'll be honest, I really like our line right now as it is, if Colon comes back and either him or Gilbert becomes that guard we are missing, then we really just need a mid rounder to add depth.

For me, I think Steelers are currently lacking at TE, ILB, and Safety.
At TE: We need a 2nd TE who is a real threat in the passing game, and we also need an elite Blocker at TE.
At ILB: Farrior doesn't make plays like he used to and neither does the depth.
At S: Mundy is really nothing special...Tyrone Carter made more plays than him. Will Allen is pretty good when healthy, but is often injured.

 

I like this analysis. I've thought before that we should move Gay to safety, given that pace is often his issue. He can blitz well enough, and is good at covering plays, rather than breaking up passes.

I can also see us going early NT, then ILB, then as good an OL-man that we can get.

 

I see the most important position of need on this team as ILB....period. Farrior is almost done and Foote as a full time starter for more than 1 years is scary. Sylvester, while I like him, I think he is a better backup to Timmons. Give me a good ILb and I'm happy in the first round.

Other positions to look at IMO.

On offense there isn't really anything you need to do high in the draft. QB isn't a need. RB, I like what we got, especially if Batch comes back again and impresses. WR is a position we can get 1 more year out of Cotchery and Ward as role players. TE is a position I want to see more of our current #3 before I commit to draft one. C is solid even at the backup position.

OG and OT are positions to look at. Some of this comes down to what you do with the guys here. Starks, does he come back? Colon, is he still a tackle? Gilbert, is he a RT for us or a LT? Kemo, he is a starter or cut, he won't be a backup, so I think he stays. IMO, we need a G more than a tackle. Scott, Legursky and Foster I am fine with for backups. Starks to me holds the key, and I think he will be back. Starks, Gilbert, Colon and J. Scott I am fine with. Foster, Kemo, Legursky, and Pouncey on the inside. That leaves basically 1 OL spot open, and IMO it should be a G starter.

I think A. Smith is done, so DE is a position where we need someone, but not high. Look when Keisel was drafted. With Hood and Heyward already #1 picks in the fold, we just need a depth guy.

NT is not a place I put a lot of stock into any more. With offenses spreading out all over the place, it just isn't as important as it used to be. McLendon and Hoke or Hampton can hold it down IMO. OLB is not a need. CB and S are always needs.

 

1. NT
2. OG
3. CB
4. MLB
5. OT
6. FS
7. SS

 

I would invest in a early NT. The only problem I see is I think experts say the draft class for one is weak this year, maybe one emerges?

Most of these older veterans are going to be gone to clear cap space. Mike Wallace is going get PAID IN FULL in the offseason.

 

They certainly have not been shy about spending 1st rounders on the DL. But they are very, very good at scouting the position. We've had nothing but steller defensive linemen since Colbert took over, and still very good ones before that. For a nose tackle, I would trust them to wait until a middle round on a guy they love, whereas I would not trust that same pick if it was a CB or OL. The need we have suggests we should spend a very high pick there, but they are good enough at scouting that they could squeak by with a later one. I think anything from rounds 1-4 is very possible, and possibly even later than that.

Moving Colon or Gilbert to guard is a very big "if." I wouldn't say it's impossible, but I'd say it's currently not in the team's plans. In any case, that would only solve one of our guard problems. Or are you satisfied with either Kemo or Foster/Legursky? I think we need new starters in both places. That means drafting someone higher than just for depth.

Carter had a knack for being in the right place at the right time, and so he landed some interceptions. But he was not a good safety. He gave up tons of big plays, which is all a safety is not supposed to do, and although he was a big hitter, he was a terrible tackler. Mundy is a much needed improvement over Carter. Have you noticed that when Troy or Clark miss time nowadays, we can still win the game? It used to be game over.

That said, he's not the successor to anyone. He's just a capable backup and special teamer. But compared to what we've had in the past there, I'm thrilled with that.

 

Gay would probably be a better safety than corner, but we all know that's not saying much.

I've also thought the same about McFadden. The guy is phenomenal in run support; he's like a brick wall. He seems like a smart guy, too, he just struggles in single coverage. He's got decent ball skills. He actually might be similar to Ryan Clark, minus the cannon Clark keeps in his back pocket. What do you think about that?

 

With the three guys we have now, they might well be able to hold it down another year, but we will need a replacement.

It's true the position becomes less valuable the more teams pass, so NT today doesn't mean what it meant 5 years ago. But in my opinion 5 years ago and every year before, NT was the most important position. All success radiated out from Big Snack. From him, to the DEs, to the LBs, to the secondary.

Without a good nose tackle, teams will be able to run more on us. Opponents won't pass 75% of the time, they will become more balanced and defense will be harder in general. Then our crappy NT will be on the field more, stinking it up and we'll wish we had Hampton still.

People talk about run defense like it doesn't matter anymore, and Hampton like he's useless because he spends half the time on the bench (even before everything got this pass-happy). But I always thought taking an entire dimension away from a team was a good thing. Nobody said Barry Bonds should be cut because no one ever pitched to him. I think it's similar with a great nose tackle.

That said, the position has still been diminished. But even if it only plays half of defensive downs, it is easily one of the most important positions on those downs, and thus still one of the most important positions on defense. It all depends on value of the particular player, but for the position, 2nd round is not too high for me.

 

ˆˆˆˆˆˆˆˆ
I agree every successful 3-4 has a great NT, We need a dominate NT, but that doesn't mean he has to be only a 2 down type of guy.

To answer you question about guard, I think KEMO is being hampered by the knee injury and it is affecting his game, if he has the surgery and gets healhty next year he is good enough...no Faneca, but good enough.

 

Well, true enough about Gay. I agree that McFadden may also be better moved to safety.

So basically we have a number of CBs who would play better at S, and safeties who aren't great at coverage and often play better at LB?

 

Would love:

1. Cb
2. G
3. Ilb
4. Safety

 

I'd love either an O-lineman or C-back, whichever is more highly rated when the Steelers get to pick.

 

A ball-hawkin safety.

 

after watching kemoeatu sunday ,there is no doubt in my mind where that 1st pick should go. LG. it's the offenses turn for a first anyway. we talk about the wr's being ok, but wallace will need to be signed. mendy will need to be signed also. ilb or two and safety help is a must. they should have re-signed fox for this year at ilb.

 

joe looney-wake forest. has played LG for 3 years and played C. this year. nice fit.

 

I've thought before that we should move Gay to safety, given that pace is often his issue. He can blitz well enough, and is good at covering plays, rather than breaking up passes.

Hey Thigpen82, I like this thought. Think the Steelers would ever try it?
(And I remember Yancy.)