Recent "mock drafts" recently have the Steelers 1st choice as either an OL or RB... I don't see it..

Etienne's receiving ability is highly underrated …….. He reminds me a lot of Leshaun McCoy..... as you said, Harris is a no brainer and clone of Derek henry, and I truly don't believe either of them will be around at 24

 

I will be ok, if they select players in that order.

 

From a value standpoint, I don't think you EVER take an RB in the first round... Why? Because EVEN the best RB's are ineffective without a good OL, The mediocre RB's are adequate WITH a good OL... AND, it is common for even the BEST 1st round RB's to get injured, and end up being a COMPLETE bust !!

Defensive impact players are a MUCH better value in the early rounds... with OL's being good values in the 3-5th rounds. QB's are always hit & miss. The BEST perceived QB's go early, but even the "best" often crap out, and NEVER live up to expectations.

If I were a crap team with a 1st pick in the draft pick? I would trade the pick back, stock up on multiple 2-3rd round players and future 1st round picks, take the best DL and defensive impact players available in rounds 1-4... start taking the best OL's in rounds 3-5, and HOPE that somewhere along the way, a good QB drops into my lap... In general.. develop the Defense and the OL first... and then in year #2, start worrying about WR's and TE's... I think the plan to rebuild a once GREAT franchise like the Steelers is much the same blueprint !!

 

Underrated?! Absolutely.


However, his receiving abilities compared to that of Christian McCaffrey or SaQuon is the equivalent to the size of a pound versus an ocean.

 

To me, if we want to fix our offense, we need to draft and fix the offensive line. If you look just at our line over the last few years, we have proved that you can win with guys who aren't even drafted. Heck our entire left side of the line were UDFA in AV and Foster. That being said I am not happy with the line if Pouncey comes back with the guys we have. Chuk/Dotson/Pouncey/DeCastro/Banner is not a winning formula IMO. Yes, we could use a better running back, but I bet with us making the running game a priority that this line is NOT what we go into the year with.

When it comes to skill positions on defense being needed...I'm not sure where we really sit there. The Defensive back starters are pretty well set. Hilton or Sutton will probably be back as will Pierre. Haden could be a cap casualty, but if that happens, I think Sutton AND Hilton are back. We need CB depth and S depth, but I don't see us needing a starter. The OLB situation again is about depth. Highsmith and Watt are the starters. After that we don't have anything. Again....depth. The ILB position starters come down to Williams. Is Vince a cap casualty or does he come back? If he is back we don't need a starter at ILB. For the Dline, I think we find a way to bring back Alualu and we are set on the Dline. I honestly think we will be looking for depth players late in the draft, but not starters.

OL (tackle and center) and RB are the positions that I think are the position where we have no clear starters.

 

They draft for need in the first round every single year, not BPA.

 

Even though we've picked D in the first round since 2013, I could get on board with this. If the best player is an ILB or CB, draft him.

 

Not quite.


In 2015, Corner was just as big a weakness as EDGE Rusher. In 2018, Linebacker was the obvious big one. It all depends on the board.

 

I think it perhaps equally flawed to state that every 1st round pick has been for need as it is to say that the Steelers BPA philosophy "always has been, always will be." They've definitely leaned toward need over base player positional ability on occasion in the past, but so has just about every other organization.

I think every war room has a formula of sorts that encompasses ability, uniqueness, need, position, impact, etc. To say it's simply BPA is oversimplifying the analytics and thought that go into the "BPA" for a given team at any particular point.

 

Except for the fact that, more often than not, BPA wins out. For every J.J. Watt that is considered a "reach", there will be a Christian Ponder who is considered the "right choice". Clearly different outcomes for both players but the premise remains the same. Every team has a board that they build. From there, finding which orders of "need" for the team come next. Whichever prospect is the highest graded among those "needs", that is the player that team selects barring extreme circumstances.... such as Dan Snyder or even Dan Rooney.



Again, completely different outcomes (so far in Haskins case) but the goal remains the same. Draft based on the BPA depending on ones teams major weaknesses. Superseding one position over another and then drafting a prospect who clearly is not the same caliber of prospect as the other "needs" is what lands you players like Dante Fowler Jr., Mitchell Trubisky, Taven Bryan, etc.



BPA > Need.



Only major time need and BPA are clear is well... when both aspects match up with perfectly. However, for such outcomes to happen, those teams have to be VERY BAD for both to take effect. Even then, sans this year due to Trevor Lawrence, BPA still might end up winning out in the end. Miami for example attempted to trade up all three picks to Cincy for Joe Burrow. Yes, QB was a need for the Dolphins but the BPA factor kicks in here as Miami believed Joe to be the "Better Player Available" than Tua.



Another recent example is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A recent report, found here, showed that Jason Licht attempted to move up even higher to select Wirfs as he was the Bucs highest graded Offensive Tackle. Again, Tampa Bay had a need for Offensive Tackle and could have selected Austin Jackson who was another highly touted Tackle Prospect heading into the 2020 Draft. Again though, BPA prevailed over this as selecting Jackson might have been problematic.



The biggest example though is the Dallas Cowboys selecting Ezekiel Elliot over Jalen Ramsey. Dallas needed Defensive assistance on many levels. However, for Jerry Jones, Zeke was graded higher than Ramsey was. As such, despite the "need" for such a player of Ramsey's ability, Ezekiel Elliot was the better choice for Jerry and the Cowboys even though the Running Back position is the shortest lifespan of all NFL positions.




In short. BPA for teams will continue to supercede need as the value of a player is more important to the need of a position. That said, need can supercede value but such successful outcomes are so few and far between. If anything, the last major case of a need superceding BPA was in 2016 when the Tennessee Titans took Jack Conklin over Laremy Tunisia. That said, what Tunsil did was quite asinine and, even though he was the better player available, Tennessee went the need of the position and selected a lower graded player.



It is all about how the board lines up when ones team is on the clock.

 

Also 2 add 2 the BPA conversation. I always wonder how much a players off the field antics are factored in. I'm sure the NFL Teams know way more than we do about the players off field stuff. I've heard (& read) they hire investigators for that.
So how much do you think that comes into play, in the BPA process??

 

Team dependent I am afraid.


As of recently, teams like the Chiefs, Patriots, Raiders and Rams, talent supersedes even aspects such as off the field behavior. For other teams like the Colts, Steelers, Bills and Dolphins, having a good character can factor into such decisions. However, when merely discussing off the field antics, how severe are they?! Are they as silly as Baker Mayfield being intoxicated and running away from the police or something as possibly serious as Gareon Conley being accused of sexual assault?! A Very immense spectrum there regarding off the field behavior with little to no binaries.

 

You seem to be missing the point of what I posted - the upside here being I don't think we're in disagreement. I don't see it being argued that a team fill open positions irrespective of the talent available, rather that the simple equation of BPA > Need is a bit more complex that it appears on its face.

As you note, it's commonplace for teams to construct their draft board factoring athletic ability, performance, draft class, priority of position, etc.,in ranking the order of the players they want to select. The exact formula will vary by team/GM, and there are naturally going to be disagreements in strategy/choice at times (furthering the traffic on message boards across the land).

More glaring need (fewer quality prospects, position of impact, e.g.) can result in teams leaning a bit and allocating a few more points to players at that position than equal prospects at another. As longs as the team is savvy in doing so and doesn't overcompensate, this isn't detrimental - the draft isn't an exact science; sometimes that no-brainer of a pick just doesn't work out.

I could be wrong, but the point I took @Maddog78 to be making - and the one I myself was alluding to - was that the Steelers have employed this way of thinking on occasion as well. He claims EVERY first round pick, to which I would disagree, but it's more common to happen there as the talent pool is generally higher and odds favor a team having a better chance at finding starting-level talent.

I think you're both standing on common ground, just using general terms (BPA vs Need) that belie what you mean.

 

I'm getting more and more on board with drafting someone not in the positions of high priority for us. I've run enough mocks, that I truly believe a Center will still be there in round 2....I'm not sure how I feel about OT yet, but I keep seeing guys when I run my mocks, on almost every site, that I just can't pass on. Parsons one day. The CB from SC the next. It just appears to me that the more I run things the Colbert factor/Steeler MO factor is going to play into this. Colbert and Tomlin are going to identify their "Can't not draft guys" and I think one of them might be there. The QB class I think may be overdrafted. Everything after that is all over the place, but the Steelers will have their guys. It looks more and more like this to me.

 

I'm not really big at picking a RB in the first round... however, with James Conner likely gone, and Snell and McFarland not proving anything in 2020... RB has become a position of need for the Steelers... So, IF a position of need, and the BEST available in the draft, come together for the Steelers in 2021 when they pick in the 1st round... and that player is Najee Harris? I will COMPLETELY understand it if they take him... It would be almost impossible to NOT take Najee Harris... at 6'2", 230lbs., blazing speed, and a pass catcher ? Especially if they spend a good part of the rest of the draft solidifying the OL, DL and LB's... around him ! He might be EXACTLY what the doctor ordered... OF COURSE, he could also be one of those guys that goes down with a serious knee injury early, and is never the same... Steeler fans might need to accept the risk, in HOPE of the reward !!

 

Wow have you had a revelation since your initial post, We have to have the straw that stirs the drink
and that would be Najee and OLineman to go with him. Along with a shift in philosophy of a 60/40 run pass ratio.
With our somewhat lack of Qb play, Najee would be a welcoming site moving that 232 late in games and eating clock TOP.
Paramount in the division we play in. Then next year we get the NC QB and Ben can ride off into sunset with his over 230 million dollars he
made over his PGH Steeler career. Think of that almost a quarter of a BILLION dollars to play a kid's game.

 

I wouldn't call it a revelation... but, if Conner is gone... Snell and McFarland just don't cut it for me. So, are you going to go after a free agent RB? I wouldn't... I LIKE the idea of a quick, fast, and powerful 6'2", 230lb RB... that could grow into a quick, fast, and powerful 240-245lb RB... it brings back memories of the BUS !! BUT, that said, Najee Harris is the ONLY RB in this draft (I think) that could scratch that itch... AND, he could EASILY go down with a serious knee injury, and NEVER be the same... AND THAT is why a normally would rather take RB's in the later rounds... and use the early rounds for defensive impact players...