Playoff Math Made Simple

Also to me right now I think Buffalo Bills are the hotter and playing better team than anyone in the AFC

 

Its why I am still tempted to play my starters this week because Miami has everything to play for in that game with the Bills and the Bills I am gonna assume want to play everybody to hang onto that number 2 seed just Incase the Steelers beat the Browns. I won’t say it’s impossible but I have a very hard time seeing the Steelers beating the Browns with most of their backups playing and everything on the line for the Browns. The worst case scenario that could happen for the Steelers would be the Dolphins winning and the Steelers losing to the Browns and the Steelers losing out on the number 2 seed over the Bills and having to play the Ravens the 1st wildcard game as the 3 vs 6 matchup. This is a scenario that the Steelers and Mike Tomlin should be mindful of going into this game in Cleveland that if they play all the backups in this Browns game has a legit chance of happening.

You might not think that 2 seed is critical now but if the Steelers get by the first wildcard game and have to play the Bills the next game in the divisional round and have to go to Buffalo instead of playing here at Heinz Field then you might be regretting the Steelers didn’t play everybody in Cleveland and go for the 2 seed especially if the Bills end up losing to the Dolphins.

 

Not sure I’m following you logic or maybe I’m misunderstanding.

You seem to be saying that the Mia game is not meaningless to Buf, because they can get the #2 seed and 2nd home playoff game before an empty stadium. So they should go after it on Sunday.

you also seem to be saying, that the Steelers should rest their guys vs Cle, because that’s more important than #2 seed; therefore meaningless to them.

If that’s what you’re saying, what I don’t get is why you think the #2 seed is (or should be) more important to Buf than to Pit?

 

No Im not saying that at all. I dont want to see either team rest anyone. I hate that, and don't think it works. Just my opinion.

But I think the Steelers are going to rest starters, and I don't think the Bills will. Just a hunch.

 

Got it! Bet both teams rest guys. Bills had short week, Poyer and Beasley got nicked last night. Their D finally got healthy, they’ll want to keep it that way.

 

Posted this on another topic but has more relevancy here with the playoff discussion and how we should handle week 17.

Write me down of absolutely hating the idea of Tomlin already coming out and declaring that our starters wouldn’t be playing next week. And the many reasons are to follow:

1) The offense.

Holy **** has it been throwup inducing to watch this **** show of an offense for the past month and a half. Somewhat due to inadequate play and a hell of a lot due to Fichtner and his god awful offensive plays and play calling. I want Ben and the offense to play simply for the fact to string performances together, get on the same page and knock off this short passing attack that literally hinders every other part of the offense because defenses know they can play 11 guys 7 yards off the ball.

2) Playoff seeding.

I don’t fear the Ravens nor should anyone here. Yes, they are probably the hardest team to play that will be a wildcard team. Wouldn’t it benefit the Steelers to try and avoid them if they are able to? Follow me here...

To already come out and say we are sitting guys is a horrible move by Tomlin and the FO. To just hand the Bills to second seed while still allowing them the opportunity to sit all of their starters is extremely dumb. Because once they see Mason at QB, they will instantly sit all of their big guys knowing they don’t have to play them and can lose and stay at 2nd.

To top it off, the Dolphins win against the Bills second string, the only thing preventing us from playing the Ravens first round would be for the Ravens to lose to the Bengals. Which would be ridiculously surprising at this point.

What I purpose the Steelers should do? Put it in the media that they are going all out. Everyone is playing to keep the Browns out of the playoffs and keep our offense in gear.

Hell, even go into the game and have everyone starting. Don’t just hand this **** to the Bills on a silver platter and let them not only waltz away with the 2nd seed but also giving their starters a bye week to top it off. Having a beat up Bills team would only benefit us because unless Ben goes down, there’s no way we play them again as hurt as we were the first time.

If we play our starters, that forces the Bills to play theirs and focus on beating the Dolphins to keep the second seed. If they don’t, win and take the second seed for ourselves. If they do play their starters, keep our game close and let the Bills get out to a lead and pull ours. That way we would ensure the Ravens getting the 5th seed and we would play the Browns/Colts first round.

I understand this entire idea goes up in flames once an important player happens to get hurt next week but shouldn’t we also be trying to position ourselves in the best possible position to win a super bowl?

Going through the Ravens, Bills, Chiefs and Packers/Saints, seems to be the hardest possible path by far. And doing something as simple as putting our starters out there as proxies for a quarter or two could solve the entire thing.

 

I agree with pretty much everything you wrote. Did Tomlin already announce he is resting starters? I missed that. Did he have his presser already?

 

I may have jumped the gun on him “declaring” guys would rest.

I think I read that he sort of implied it after the game but then retracted and said they would look at their options. I’d assume we’d hear something here at noon for his weekly presser.

 

I’m with you I don’t think they should automatically just sit everybody. You still gotta try to win this game and not just hand the Bills the 2 seed by letting them do the same thing. Make them have to earn it. Sure I don’t want to get guys hurt and that chance is always there but you can’t sit there and protect every single player from getting hurt. The odds are it won’t happen. I want this offense to still be in a good groove going into the playoffs and I don’t think resting players accomplishes that. If this offense in the 1st playoff game comes out in the 1st quarter after resting guys in Cleveland and goes 3 and out their 1st 4 possessions and falls behind 10-0 nobody is gonna care that Tomlin rested guys in the Browns game or pointing to that as a huge factor. So it’s a huge decision and not a very easy one for Tomlin to make.

 

I was wondering. I havent heard that yet. Tomlin made a comment that he would ponder that possibility. But he didn't announce anything yet. I am hoping the Steelers play the game to win. I can see both sides of the argument.

 

Obviously if they play their starters, I want them to look good on O, win the game and knock the Browns out of the playoffs.

That would be best case scenario.

But like I said, even if it’s a competitive game at half and they look up at see the Bills winning by 14 because they in turn had to play their starters because we did. That’s also a win/win even if we lose the game.

It stops the Bills from having, in essence, a free bye week and make them actually play to win.

Truthfully, the only reason not to play our starters and win this game boils down to having guys rest.

First I hate approaching football games and life in general that way. Let’s live in a bubble because something bad may happen. I would be alright with it if the team looked good and absolute no tiebreakers or movement could be accomplished like in the Chiefs case.

But our offense has looked like utter **** for the last 5 games outside of one half and there’s added benefit in the Bills possibly losing and being able to move up. But even if they do win, it serves us well in that scenario.

Truthfully, the worst decision they could possibly make in this scenario is to sit all of the starters and it’s not even close.

So I fully expect to hear Tomlin announce that half of our team won’t be available Sunday.

 

Ben's not playing per Tomlin's press conference.

 

Fully expected them to make the worst possible decision.

 

Washington loss, and the winner of the Dallas/Giants game is division champs.

 

Ben needs the rest going into the playoffs and Steelers don't need to win anything to get in. Momentum isn't even that big of a factor either. My biggest concern is fine tuning the offense but I would rather have a much healthier Ben than a worn down QB going into a possible 4 game stretch run. I don't see it as a worst possible decision at all.

 

Texans are the Titans biggest rivalry, a Houston thing. I can see an upset if they stop Henry early, game is in Houston. Where do they land if they lose the AFCS?

I could be wrong but I don't think Fitzmagic has ever played a playoff game. Rooting for the Amish Rifle for the SB win if the Steelers get knocked out.

 

Depends on what happens with other games. Browns, Titans, Ravens, Dolphins are all win and they're in. Colts is the only team that needs to win and get help(one of the 4 mentioned above needs to lose)

 

I'd weigh that against Reid being a monster coming off bye weeks. I still think KC is going to be very vulnerable in the division round though, especially if they win in week 17 and coast into playoffs with another comeback win.

 

KC struggled in quite a few games after their game against the Jets on 11/1
KC didn't beat anyone by more than 6 points, and lot of wins by 3 points.
So a lot of teams where a drive away from winning or tying the game for OT

They can be had. As it sits today I fear the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen more than I do KC

Bills are rolling and winning big in a lot of games, and outside of a fluke Hail Mary against the Cardinals they be winners of 9 straight games.

 

I think a week of rest will do Ben some good.

Same for MP, DD, CH and JH.

Likely Boz needs another week to be ready for playoffs.

Pending health of OA, should see TJ get some rest, though he likely will dress.

Same with AV, likely dress, but get some rest pending health of other linemen.

A week of rest for the players that have been around for more than 4 years is worthwhile and a good call IMHO.

You can argue a home game vs road game against Buffalo. But, must win in wildcard round first. Rest for the sake of health will better ensure that. Second, if ever there was a year homefield doesn’t matter, it’s this year.

I’m not counting the Dolphins out, they have more to play for than Buffalo, But I like Steelers chances with MR better than the Dolphins’ chances against a resting Buffalo team. So, a Bills win makes the game against the Browns only matter in terms of health.

With a week to prepare, MR has a good chance to lead this offense. Biggest question for me is if they can stop the run without CH and ST.

 

Bill's win. Browns win

Steelers vs Browns next week.

Best case scenario for the Steelers. No respect for this Browns team.

 

Playing the odds, Bills, Steelers and Ravens all win next week. Steelers at Bills, Ravens at KC - I’ll take that. Want the Bills real bad with a healthy team.

 

Agree. I think a healthy Steeler team beats the Bills.

 

Where’s all the people predicting we’d be playing the Ravens?