Only 3 teams

I don’t think they were 7-9 but were a wildcard team.

 

Steel I don’t see how you cannot have the Saints there unless you think Brees injury will kill them. Their Defense is exponentially better than GB and Seattle.

 

Bucs have been very shaky but they have the personnel to go on a run down the stretch and figure everything out. I wouldn’t bet on it or anything, but I’m not counting it out is all I’m saying.

I don’t like any of the other NFC teams except the Saints. Green Bay are soft and Seattle’s defence is nowhere near good enough, their offence can be amazing but I don’t think they’ll survive three playoff games to get to the big one, their defence will let them down along the way.

 

Maybe so, but Brady can still rip. And he's got weapons around him. Brady can score against any defense without a top tier pass rush. That bodes well for us, but not for most of the rest of the post season attendees. I don't typically throw around stats to make an argument because stats typically lie. They rarely paint a complete picture because they are used in a vacuum. But here is a very loose, unfinished picture stat to simply add window dressing to my point.

Team Pass Rush Win Rate
1. Atlanta Falcons, 56%
2. Pittsburgh Steelers, 55%
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 53%
4. Buffalo Bills, 51%
5. Philadelphia Eagles, 50%
6. Miami Dolphins, 46%
7. Cleveland Browns, 46%
8. Carolina Panthers, 46%
9. Jacksonville Jaguars, 46%
10. Baltimore Ravens, 46%
11. Los Angeles Rams, 45%
12. Arizona Cardinals, 45%
13. Houston Texans, 45%
14. Washington Football Team, 45%
15. Tennessee Titans, 44%
16. New Orleans Saints, 44%
17. Indianapolis Colts, 43%
18. Los Angeles Chargers, 43%
19. Kansas City Chiefs, 42%
20. Green Bay Packers, 42%
21. New York Jets, 41%
22. Seattle Seahawks, 41%
23. Denver Broncos, 39%
24. San Francisco 49ers, 39%
25. Chicago Bears, 39%
26. Las Vegas Raiders, 39%
27. Detroit Lions, 38%
28. Dallas Cowboys, 37%
29. Minnesota Vikings, 36%
30. Cincinnati Bengals, 35%
31. New York Giants, 34%
32. New England Patriots, 33%

As of right now, most of the teams that can give Brady fits on paper won't get a shot at him in the playoffs.

But anything can happen between now and then...and will. There's definitely going to be a plot twist to this story before it's over.

 

The thing with the NFL playoffs if you only need to get hot and/or lucky to win. It's not like a best of 7 where the best team will ultimately come through. The NFL winner is simply the best team at that time.

The Rams have a good D and Goff can play really well. If he does, they could go far.
The Seahawks have Wilson and a top QB always keeps you in games
The Packers have Arod. You can never count them out.
The Bucs have a ton of talent. If Brady gets hot, they will be dangerous
The Raiders are a good team. If they run the ball well and play mistake free, they can score a ton. Anytime you score a lot you have a chance to win
The Titans have Henry. If he gets rolling, then playaction becomes deadly and AJ Brown can do a lot of damage. Cory Davis has come on too. Don't count them out. It's all about Henry for the Titans. Remember, they almost beat us without Henry doing much. When he gets rolling, they are hard to beat

Any of those teams can win it all if they get hot at the right time, or if they get lucky and the opposing QB has an off game.

 

1. What is a "team pass rush win rate"? Is it offense, defense, or a differential?
2. Considering the top 5 includes 2 good teams (Steelers, Bills) and 2 bad teams (Falcons, Eagles), what exactly is this stat supposed to show? How is it any more accurate than a Magic 8-Ball?

 

I`m hoping the Raiders knock KC out of the playoffs for us.

 

It's like any other stat, subjective. But to be specific, per ESPN who created the stat, it is how often team defense is able to beat their blocks within 2.5 seconds.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...opping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings

 

Agree on AFC. NFC a mess and too flawed. Could get a surprise team out of there to represent the NFC this time around.

 

5-10-1 Eagles #2 qb could surprise everyone. I'm sure @steel machine has heard it...lol

 

I don’t think people on here are giving the Saints when healthy the respect they deserve. If Brees and Thomas are healthy at playoff time that team could be the favorite. I think the only factor against them is the same one against the Steelers. They have had some serious playoff let downs lately. Although the Rams NFC Championship game was taken from them a couple years ago on what is considered maybe the worst non call of all time. The diggs Hail Mary debacle as well although they only have them self to blame for that one. Still awful luck.

 

Thanks for the link.
Be nice if they gave a better definition.
(If a player beats the lineman in front of them, but is then double-teamed by a TE, is that a win or a loss?
What about someone who beats the block, but is so far up the arc they can't get to the QB in time?)

Still not impressed by the stat.
Doesn't seem to be correlated with anything meaningful.
Two examples:

• Atlanta was #1 in PRWR (Steelers have moved to 1 after this past weekend.) Yet they are 23rd in sacks, and only 9th in QB pressures per drop back.
• New England is #32 in PRWR. They are 28th in sacks, but they are 2nd in QB pressures per drop back.

The "QB pressures per drop back" is an eye opener.
The 2nd through 8th best teams are between 25.1 - 26.5 % (tight clustering of scores).
The Steelers are at 34.3% (The difference between 1st and 2nd is more than the difference between 2nd and 28th.)

 

You've really taken ahold of these stats. I was very clear that I was offering them only as window dressing. Stats can paint any number of pictures. They are like politicians who tell you what you want to hear. They make sense until reality sets in and they paint another picture.

 

Because of age I think Brees will be a problem for N.O. Now if he was a young stud I would have put N.O.

 

The Giants were a play away on D from not even making the playoffs that season. Of course, Romo messed that up.

 

Cannot agree. I do think we are starting to see the contenders separating from the pretenders, but a lot can happen in the month of December. Two teams that could really surprise are the Rams and the Raiders. Both have very good D's and their O's are good enough to hold with anybody.

 

You mean the 10-6 Giants in the 2008 SB, or the 9-7 Giants in the 2012 SB who beat the 13-3 Patsies?