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Will Corona virus deter you from going to Heinz Field this season?

Discussion in 'Steelers Talk' started by Da Stellars, May 18, 2020.

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  1. Roonatic

    Roonatic Well-Known Member

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    Not looking good for the south imo. Record # of cases per day damn near every day now. The second wave still coming in the fall? If the mandatory mask wearing doesn't level the spikes off, stay at home orders may be renewed.
     
  2. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    A more accurate indicator is probably hospitalizations since testing varies between states, and test availability was much, much lower early on. Seven states have just reported their highest day of COVID hospitalizations (including the early days). Arizona, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas. From what I can see, Florida reports cumulative hospitalizations only (unlike Texas' transparent reporting). A news outlet out of Tallahassee has been tracking the daily change in hospitalizations, and their graph of the data shows a rise in the 7 day average of new hospitalizations going back to around June 7, approaching (but not yet reaching) its earlier peaks in April and May.

    It seems possible that the spread can be largely mitigated by 1) maintaining 6' distance whenever possible, 2) wearing masks when 6' distance is not possible or in indoor spaces with a lot of people, and, 3) doing activities that involve a large amount of people outdoors. The more drastic measures that were imposed earlier wouldn't be needed if people are smart. That last "if" is a pretty big one, and evidence suggests that the ignorance pandemic will keep feeding the COVID 19 pandemic.
     
  3. Roonatic

    Roonatic Well-Known Member

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    I hope your right about being able to be mitigated. I expected the rates to rise due to more testing being done but wasn't prepared to see them take off like a rocket. Especially during the summer months.
     
  4. Wardismvp

    Wardismvp Well-Known Member

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    Ouch, in Pa we still Avg about 600/day and have since the virus started.
    Now that the State has moved into the green stage we are starting to see community spread.
    and people are letting their guard down.
     
  5. Bacarty2

    Bacarty2 Active Member

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    Depending on the county/state testing is up 4000% lol
    Who would of thought that more testing would result in more possative tests YET the death rate has gone down.

    When will Americans realize that 100+ million people have had this virus in this country and are just fine.
    Had it- thought it was the flu and fought it off
    Had it - no symptoms
    Had it - survived with no hospital

    My brother had a child and needed to be tested to be in the delivery room. He had it. had no idea.
     
  6. strummerfan

    strummerfan Well-Known Member

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    Back to bed little one adults are speaking
     
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  7. strummerfan

    strummerfan Well-Known Member

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    Second wave requires actually making it out of the first wave.
     
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  8. Roonatic

    Roonatic Well-Known Member

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    I guess the first wave is what we are experiencing now with things trying to return to normal? The shutdown was to prepare & mitigate for it? Makes sense unless your in NYC or Jersey. Who knows with the flip flopping I get from the evening news...carry on Steelers fans, be safe.
     
  9. strummerfan

    strummerfan Well-Known Member

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    I can only speak for my state. There were guidelines put in place in order to reopen. We never met those guidelines and the governor decided to reopen anyways.we are seeing the consequences of that decision now.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  10. Roonatic

    Roonatic Well-Known Member

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    Are we talking about Florida? If so I agree.
     
  11. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    Let's take each of these points in turn:

    "Who would of thought that more testing would result in more possative tests YET the death rate has gone down." - In your ignorance you've ignored the passage of time. Infection precedes hopsitalization, and hospitalization precedes death. People don't contract Covid-19 and keel over instantly like they would with a gunshot wound, or even die in a few days like they would with Ebola. Data published by the CDC shows around 21 days from infection to death for those who die from the disease. Increases in hospitalizations have been seen in several states:
    - In Florida, the 7 day average of new hospitalizations was a little over 100/day in early June, now it's around 170/day
    - In Texas, they set a new record on June 8th of 1,935 total people hospitalized with C-19, and are now at 4,389
    - California has over 4,000 people hospitalized with C-19. Prior to the past week, the highest level observed was around 3,400

    The data is really clear on this. Whether this leads to increased death in the next few weeks compared to March and April levels depends on a lot. Treatments have been proven since then, which should reduce the mortality rate. Remdesevir is now standard of care. Dexemethasone is now being used widely in late stage patients who can tolerate it (it's bad for diabetics). Yale recently announced results of using Tocilizumab in patients on ventilators, and said that they had a survival rate of 75% compared to a 10-50% survival rate for ventilated patients reported worldwide. There's a even a non-medication based treatment called "proning" that uses body positioning to help keep the lungs clear of fluid in patients who have hypoxia, and on the track for ventilation. Convalescent plasma is being trailed, and mostly showing good results. We should continue to see mortality rates fall as doctors and scientists develop new and better ways to keep people alive and shorten hospital stays. One thing for damn sure though: if our behavior causes enough of a surge in infections to overwhelm the hospitals, then mortality rates will increase.

    "When will Americans realize that 100+ million people have had this virus in this country and are just fine." - Have you got a scientific study to back this up, or is this just more ignorant blather to fit your political view of the world? The most aggressive "credible" scientific source I've seen who even comes close to numbers like your suggesting is the (non-peer reviewed) analysis done by Dr. John Ioanniddis out of Stanford (which would be around 50 million US infections). Below is a link to it. He crunches a bunch of numbers and takes some liberty with the data (that he explains), and arrives at an infection mortality rate of 0.26% To get to that level he had to selective explain away some data such as the New York City POPULATION mortality rate (not infection mortality rate) of around 0.2% (which as I show a few pages up translates to a 0.8% infection mortality rate). His explanation is that the congested transit system of NYC may have exposed people to higher viral loads, leading to a tendency for more severe disease. This actually does make sense, so I'm inclined to buy that theory, though there's certainly no evidence supporting it. Regardless, even if the infection mortality rate is 0.26%, that's 2 1/2 times more deadly than the flu, and since there's no vaccinations for C-19, that makes it even more dangerous than just 2 1/2 times the danger level of the flu. The combination of a flu vaccine and the natural immunity that people get from being exposed to various strains of influenza annually prevents a lot of infection. Here's a link:
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v2.full.pdf+html

    "Had it- thought it was the flu and fought it off, Had it - no symptoms Had it - survived with no hospital" - DUH. There's no new news here. It's been acknowledged and understood by everyone in the scientific community that there are asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic people, and they those people represent the majority of cases. If you simply look at confirmed cases vs. deaths in the US, you get a 5% fatality rate. Nobody is suggesting that's even in the ballpark of being accurate. The fact that people can be asymptomatic also increases the risk of infection across society because there are people who spread it without ever having a clue that they have anything.

    The most important thing for people to understand about this disease is that the medical/scientific community is just starting to understand it. They learn new things each day. They don't know whether there will be long-term complications, and how significant those complications may be.

    My point is not to say that people should panic, or lockdowns should be imposed. My point is that an intelligent conversation on what should be done needs to be informed by facts, not politically-driven fiction. Unfortunately there are many on this country who disregard facts that are inconvenient for them.
     
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  12. Da Stellars

    Da Stellars Well-Known Member

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    My question are how accurate are the tests, and do we know what we are testing? ... might be some false positives that are being given out.
     
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2020
  13. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    False negatives are far more prevalent than false positives in the PCR testing for active infection.
     
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  14. thorn058

    thorn058 Well-Known Member

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    @Steel_Elvis this whole thing reminds me of Jaws, the scene after the shark eats the guy in the estuary and the mayor is wandering the halls of the hospital mumbling to himself and says " I was doing what was in the best interests of the town" and Brody tells him Larry you're the mayor of Shark city, everyone thinks you wanted the beaches open. And he responds my kids were on that beach too.

    I feel like that scene is being played out at local, state and federal level all over the country.
     
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  15. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    Good analogy. Hopefully people wake up quickly enough so that simple day to day behavior changes can do enough to keep this from blowing up (again).
     
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  16. strummerfan

    strummerfan Well-Known Member

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    Georgia
     
  17. strummerfan

    strummerfan Well-Known Member

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    You’re wasting your time and energy. Pretty clear he was one of those Facebook epidemiology degrees supported by some grifter with a YouTube channel and fully endorsed by the “woke” qanon masses.
    He’s probably still touting the benefits of hydroxychloroquine
     
  18. Blast Furnace

    Blast Furnace Staff Member Mod Team

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    125,000 dead Americans would like a word with you.

    State after state are going down the same road NYC just went down, hospitals overwhelmed, no ICU beds, patients going on ventilators (which you are pretty much ****ed then), morgue overflow and bringing in refrigerated trucks to store dead bodies.

    I mean wtf people, at what point do you accept reality.
     
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  19. strummerfan

    strummerfan Well-Known Member

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    You know full well it’s just the media.
     
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  20. strummerfan

    strummerfan Well-Known Member

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    You know full well it’s just the media.
     
    • Disagree Disagree x 1
  21. Blast Furnace

    Blast Furnace Staff Member Mod Team

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    Pisses me off, I’ve gone through three months of isolation and lost all that income for nothing. My state is opening back up and I’m slowly getting bookings again but because so many others haven’t done what is needed, people have already begun to cancel those reservations. There are outbreaks in the places they were going to go or they don’t want to deal with the 14 day quarantine when coming back into the state because they were just at a highly infected area.
     
  22. Blast Furnace

    Blast Furnace Staff Member Mod Team

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    I have the perfect clip for this from a person speaking at a hearing against face masks and she’s a total loon. Too much politics and religion for here though but captures what disinformation, ignorance and social media platforms like Facebook does to people.
     
    • Hilarious Hilarious x 1
  23. thorn058

    thorn058 Well-Known Member

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    Those ladies were kooky for cocopuffs
     
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  24. Blast Furnace

    Blast Furnace Staff Member Mod Team

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    I thought of this when I saw it

    upload_2020-6-25_16-18-34.gif
     
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  25. Roonatic

    Roonatic Well-Known Member

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    Sorry to hear that Blast. You guys are on the front lines of battling this epidemic, & in my prayers.
     
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