Playoff Scenarios

looked at the Scenarios today and I think this is right. But I could be corrected!

Steelers win the last 2, they're in.

Steelers lose the last 2, they're out.

Steelers split, Hou beats TN, they're in. The tie w/ 9-7 Tn goes to Pitt based on 7 conf wins vs 6
TN beats Hou, they're out,
If TN wins the AFCS, Pit loses the tie to Hou based on Conf wins (8vs7)
If Hou wins the Division, both TN and Pitt will have 7 Conf wins and are 3-2 vs common opponents. The tiebreak is Strength of Victory, where TN has an insurmountable lead over PGH, largely because 2 of the Steeler wins were against 1-win Cincy. (Yes, I looked at all the remaining pertinent NFL games, and Pit can't catch TN in SOV no matter how things play out.)


People have been saying that the Steelers are in if they beat the jets and Tn loses to NO, I don't think this is true.



EDIT: looked again, The Steelers aren't out completely at 8-8. If TN loses out, and Indy finishes 8-8. Indy wins the div tie w/TN, and the Steelers win the tie with them, as long as Cleve and Oak aren't 8-8

EDIT II: if Indy wins out at 9-7, theyd also finish 2nd in the AFCS over 9-7 TN or 9-7 Hou. And the Steeler would win TBs over them. So you need to root for Indy to beat NO tonight.

 

Beat the Jets, See what happens.

 

Eternal optimism

I’m with you

 

We need to win out or Titans to lose to Texans in final week. Titans can go 1-1 in final games and us too and they get in on strength of victory. Arians could do us a solid and beat the Texans and give the Texans a reason to win their last game.

 

I think we found out where we stand last night. We cannot handle a team with a strong defense because they can nearly completely shut down our offense. The type of team we can beat is one that is dependent on their offense because we might be able to nearly completely disrupt that and our own offense should be able to score on their average or below average defense.

IMO, we also found out the Bills are better than us. Maybe our defense is a bit better than theirs, but our offense is definitely worse than theirs. Both teams are similar, but as a package the Bills are better. Having said that, maybe we would have the better chance of having a good game in the playoffs that could take somebody out if our defense totally took over a game.

I think maybe we got a little greedy. We started the year dead and buried and just hoping not to embarrass ourselves this year. Now we know we are not going far in the playoffs if we get there. We should be grateful we got this far with a broken offense.

 

The team is going to have a difficult time winning the last 2 games and making the playoffs without better QB play. The turnovers were a killer.

 

So it looks like it is between us and Tenn..
If Tenn loses both games then we are in..
If they lose 1, we have a slight chance
If they lose 0, we have to win both..

But all of that rides on us winning 1 of the next two..

Now if we both lose out then we would get it @ 8-8

 

This game with the Jets on Sunday means nothing if the Steelers win the game only if they win next week at Baltimore or the Titans lose in Houston next week. The Titans could lose to the Saints and the Steelers beat the Jets and it still won’t matter because if the Titans beat the Texans that last game and the Steelers lose in Baltimore they win the 9-7 tiebreaker as you mentioned on strength of victory.

Like you also mentioned the only other way they can get in at 9-7 over the Titans if the Steelers go 1-1 and the Titans beat Houston is if the Colts win out and finish 9-7. They would finish ahead of the Titans based on better division record 4-2 to Tenn 3-3 and cancel the Titans out for the Steelers. The Steelers would then win the tiebreaker over Indy obviously at 9-7 based on the head to head win over them on Nov 3rd.

So like you said AF root for Indy to win in New Orleans tonight because it will very much keep that Colts 9-7 scenario alive with cancelling the Titans out for the Steelers seeing that they have the Panthers and Jaguars at home to finish out. Why I’ll say it again that loss last night was so critical because had the Steelers won they would have just needed the Titans to lose to either the Saints or Texans the last two weeks and would have been in even if they lost the last 2 games to both the Jets and Ravens. The loss to Buffalo cancelled the common opponent tiebreaker out with the Titans and now put the strength of victory tiebreaker in play.

So nothing the Steelers can do about that now though they still do know if they win the last two games in New York and Baltimore they will make the playoffs no matter what the Titans do these last two weeks.

 

(Spoiller alert) Its all gona come down to scoreboard watching, just like last year

 

I was looking the last time the Patriots were in the Wildcard round and not the divisional round with a bye.
You have to go back to 2009.

It be something if we got them in the wildcard round.

 

The offence is horrible the sooner this team gets put out of their misery the better.

 

My head hurts

 

Nope. In that scenario, Pitt is 9-6 and TN is 8-7. If in Week 17, TN beats Hou and the Steelers lose to Bal, they'd both be 9-7, with 7 conf wins. Their record vs common opponents is the same, (the loss to Buff makes that happen). So next Tiebreaker is Strength of Victory and TN is too far ahead in that one to be caught.

Common Opps for TN and Pitt are: Cle, Buf, Indy and LAC, both teams are 3-2 vs those opponents.
Strengh of victory: Teams that TN have beaten have won 50 games. Teams the Steelers have beaten have won 34.5 games. There is no way for Steelers victims to close that gap in the 2 weeks left.

 

Yea you should be rooting for Indy because if they finish 9-7 with the Titans and the Steelers do as well Indy can cancel the Titans out for the Steelers based on having a better division record first which is the first tiebreaker when two teams in the division have the same record. Indy wins that over Tenn 4-2 to 3-3. And again no the Steelers don’t clinch this weekend if they beat the Jets and the Titans lose to the Saints because the Steelers could lose to the Ravens next week and if the Titans beat the Texans they win the 9-7 tiebreaker on the Steelers based on strength of victory. So it’s a little confusing now but things will become a lot clearer in about 6 days after the Steelers Jets game. I still think at this point the Steelers have a better scenario to get in the playoffs then the Titans do. I’d rather be sitting here now having control of my own destiny then being in a position the Titans are in where they need help.

 

If this happen it would be our SB this year,,knocking them out of the playoffs would be nothing short of a perfect ,fabulous ending to the year!
But lets just beat the Jets 1st.

 

If the Steelers go 1-1 and the Titans go 9-7 and lose to the Texans they are in based on conference record, if the Steelers go 1-1 and the Titans lose to the Saints and beat the Texans the Titans get in because they would have the same conference record and common opponents record and the next tiebreaker is strength of victory and the Titans win that tiebreaker.

As for Indy Titans and Steelers all finishing either at 8-8 or 9-7 the Colts win the tiebreaker over the Titans first based on better division record then Tenn 4-2 to 3-3 which can cancel Tennessee out first since division tiebreaker gets broken first between division teams and the Steelers would then win the tiebreaker over Indy based on their head to head win on Nov 3rd. Does that make sense now??

 

Yeah, Duck was just as bad vs. Bills.... as Rudolph was vs. the Browns. It was painful to watch.

 

Ok, Here's how it goes. Right now, today, the Steelers are 6-4 in conf, TN is 6-5. So all the predictors say "Well, if the season ended today, the Steelers win the tie based on better conf record" as 6-4 beats 6-5.

But the season doesn't end today, and both teams will play the same number of conf games when it's over.

At 9-7, the Steelers will have 7 conf wins. If TN gets to 9-7 by beating NO and not Hou, they'll have 6 and pit wins the tie. If TN gets to 9-7 by beating Hou, they'll have 7 conf wins too. The next tb is common opps, both TN and Pit are 3-2 vs them. So the next tb is strength of victory, and TN has that one.

If Indy finishes up 9-7 And TN is 9-7, you have to resolve division ties first. Indy has 4 div wins, TN only 3. So you resolve Indy vs Pitt for the 6th spot, and Pitt wins on head to head victory.

Clear as mud?

 

Hey 4B.

You stated the obvious my friend. With the way our team's "O" is built right now, we need the "D" to present us with scoring opportunities as much as possible. Special teams as well. We do not have the type of "O" that can put together long-sustained scoring drives. We need short fields to work with which means turnovers and good punt/kick-off returns. I was tentatively optimistic that Duck could get that going but last night proved me otherwise.

STEELWINDS AKA The East Side Kid

 

Yes. when considering the 9-7 tie scenario, it doesn't matter how Pit gets to 9-7, either besting NY or Bal.

If TN beat NO , they still need to beat Hou to edge out Pit. If they go 9-7 but lose to Hou, Pit wins the tie.
But if they lose to NO and beat Hou, they win the 9-7 tie.
So yes, if TN beats Hou and Pitt is 9-7, TN is in, regardless of what they do vs NO.