Evaluating 10 years of 1st round draft picks

YEAR SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
2019 10 Devin Bush LB Michigan -- TBD but early results are mixed. Some flash plays; other times QBs pick on him in coverage.
2018 28 Terrell Edmunds SAF Virginia Tech -- Not looking good. Getting close to bust status. Has athletic measurables but routinely looks lost and takes horrible angles.
2017 30 T.J. Watt LB Wisconsin -- A great pick. Looks like he may approach perrenial All-Pro status if he continues to improve.
2016 25 Artie Burns CB Miami (Fla.) -- A massive bust. A corner who can't cover.
2015 22 Bud Dupree LB Kentucky -- Also a bust, but at least has shown some production. Hasn't really improved in technique or production in last 4 seasons.
2014 15 Ryan Shazier OLB Ohio State -- Legit All-Pro whose career was tragically ended by a freak injury.
2013 17 Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia -- Bust city. Even worse than You, Me and Dupree.
2012 24 David DeCastro G Stanford -- Great pick. Perennial Pro Bowler.
2011 31 Cameron Heyward DE Ohio State -- Good pick but has been close to invisible so far this season. Is his time coming to an end?
2010 18 Maurkice Pouncey C Florida -- See Heyward above.
2009 32 Ziggy Hood DT Missouri -- The Artie Burns of DTs.

First round hit rate = 5/10 (Watt, Shazier, DeCastro, Heyward and Pouncey) = 50% How does that compare to the rest of the NFL?

 

I will have a thread later this week about the rest of the league. I promise you I will. Keep a look out for it!!


Regarding the list you have, I agree. Cameron Heyward has already acquired an All Pro nod. Maurkice Pouncey could be headed to Canton should he continue. Those two definitely lived up to their draft billing.


For me, jury is still out on Terrell Edmunds. Consistently inconsistent as I have said already many times over today. His saving grace will likely have to come at the hands of a coaching change. Hopefully the next Defensive Coordinator will know how to play Terrell to his strengths.


The issue overall though has not entirely been the draft picks. That is half of the equation but sometimes even less than half. This team's issue is the Defensive Coordinator. Much like Tim Lewis back in 2003, Keith Butler is NOT a Defensive Coordinator.


This team NEEDS one in the worst way. Not just any one though. One who can maximize the talent that is available.

 

1st round picks are great. But when you win Super Bowls you find talents at other levels of the draft and even undrafted guys.

Willie Parker was never drafted but was a huge reason we won our 5th super bowl

James Harrison not drafted huge reason we won our 6th super bowl.

 

Most of the busts have been draft reaches or projects with flaws or raw athleticism.

Bud great body size and strength and not bad speed, unfortunately he has no moves as a rush OLB.
Why in his 5 th year has he not been coached to do something other than a wide bull rush.

Burns great size and length decent speed not a bad tackler, but his draft summary was lacks ball skills, has trouble adjusting when ball is in the air.
Again with those physical tools why hasn t he improved , both Burns and Davis regressed in their second years.

Jarvis Jones I have no idea what they saw in him other than 14.5 sacks in his last year of college.
Lacked strength and didn t seem wiling to put in the gym time to improve total bust.

Edmunds I am not ready to dump on him and sometime think people expect too much too soon.
The deep pass TD to Metcalf yesterday was perfectly thrown ball to the outside shoulder of a big and fast WR. Edmunds was step for step with him and I don't see any corner in the league stopping that without a pass interference call.

If we had coaches who could coach and develop a player, 2 of the above might not even be on the list of possible busts.

JJ makes the list anyway you look at it, I still remember seeing a picture of Jones from his first camp my first impression was he looks soft kind of doughy for a LB.

 

I looked at all of the drafts under Tomlin's tenure one evening last season. For a coach with a defensive background, his defensive drafts have mostly been offensive.

 

I think Edmunds played an overall good game vs Seattle. His versatility was on display with his ability to cover Wrs. Most safeties can't run with Wrs. He should get better with more experience.