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Probability of success for Rudolph and the all 2018 picks

Discussion in 'Steelers Talk' started by LoneGranger, May 26, 2018.

  1. LoneGranger

    LoneGranger Well-Known Member

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    May 5, 2016
    “What the Stats Tell Us About Drafting Positions by Round,” a Feb, 2015 article https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

    shows the success of draft picks by playing positon and by draft position. Does the selection position in the NFL draft determine the probability a NFL player’s success? Apparently it does. So what are the chances of Mason Rudolph becoming a starting QB in the NFL? The answer is 17%. His chances are slim. OK! But hey he was rated hirer. Does not matter he is a third round draftee. There were 122 QBs selected in the NFL draft over the past ten years (2006-2015) only 25 have been starters for at least half of their career.

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  2. mac daddyo

    mac daddyo Well-Known Member

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    Oct 22, 2011
    So it was better to pick a QB in the 7th round then in the 5th or 6th. This actually proves nothing LG. Most high draft picks are picked for a team need and will have a higher percentage chance of starting because the need to fill that spot. Most mid to late round picks are often depth or need some time.:cool:
     
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  3. AFan

    AFan Well-Known Member

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    Oct 24, 2011
    A 17% chane isn't 'slim' it's a 1 in 5 or 6 chance. It ain't great, but horses with those odd win every day.
    Is Mason 'a sure thing'? No. But he's the the most interesting QB option since they drafted Ben. That's why there's curiosity. You have the whole 'we got first round talent in the 3rd round!!!' argument too. But just like other amazing 1st round talent that fell in the Stillers lap in later rounds - Limas Sweed, Matavis Bryant, Shamarco Thomas-- I won't hold my breath anticipating their greatness. But he has a decent chance. Not a slim one
     
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  4. LoneGranger

    LoneGranger Well-Known Member

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    May 5, 2016
    Try to figure out why there is a 6% chance for the 6th round versus 0% chance in 5th and 6th rounds. You can do it. Well, maybe not. In statistics one does encounter outliers. :cool::cool::cool::cool:
     
  5. mac daddyo

    mac daddyo Well-Known Member

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    Oct 22, 2011
    I believe you mean 7th round. Getting the numbers wrong can change everything.come on you can do it.;):cool:
     
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