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TMHY Mock Draft that you really won't like

Discussion in 'The Bill Nunn Draft Room' started by TheMatrixHasYou, Mar 16, 2018.

  1. TheMatrixHasYou

    TheMatrixHasYou Well-Known Member

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    The 40 time is absolutely over rated. Every year we see some guys get drafted way above where they should have gone. But, if that's the way it is, right or wrong, then that's the way you have to structure your draft board. If a guy runs fast you have to move him up if you want your draft board to be somewhat accurate, even if you don't want him.
     
  2. chitown steeler3

    chitown steeler3 Well-Known Member

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    Guess I'm confused on what point you're trying to make then.

    If they were supposed to draft an ILB last year you named a guy we didn't have a shot at. If they would have waited till the 4th I don't think many people consider a day 3 pick a high pick.
    Not arguing about keeping Dobbs who was our 4th rounder, not sure anyone would argue that was a good choice for us. But aside from possibly Jayon Brown, who the Titans chose in the 5th, I don't know who we should/could have drafted. Problem with Brown is he is undersized, had little starting experience (only played when Miles Jack got hurt), and was probably pegged as a special teams player by most teams since that's what he did for 4 years at UCLA.
     
  3. TheMatrixHasYou

    TheMatrixHasYou Well-Known Member

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    Was your question about my rankings before the draft or who I would take while the draft was going on and Jarad Davis was off the board?

    I would always have a trade down agreed upon before the draft just in case the guy I want isn't there, so, I would have moved down.

    In 2017 I also liked ILB Kendell Beckwith. I had a late 1st round grade on him but he went in the top of the 3rd, probably because of his 4.80 speed. So, if we couldn't have moved down I probably would have taken him but RB Dalvin Cook was still on the board, and ILB Reuben Foster, and OLB Devonte Fields, CB Cordrea Tankersley, and OLB Jordan Willis.
     
  4. chitown steeler3

    chitown steeler3 Well-Known Member

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    Guess I didn't back up my question with my assumptions in my head.

    So I always assume that whatever would/could have been offered by another team was not enough to entice us to move back or move up. Meaning that all you could do is replace someone that was drafted by someone that was drafted behind them. So Jarad Davis aside you're saying that you would rather have drafted RB Dalvin Cook, ILB Reuben Foster, and OLB Devonte Fields, CB Cordrea Tankersley, and OLB Jordan Willis over TJ Watt? Or am I missing your thoughts again?
     
  5. TheMatrixHasYou

    TheMatrixHasYou Well-Known Member

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    When it comes to moving up or down I think Colbert just likes to stay put. He likes the value of each pick as it is. About ten years ago there was a rumor of a trade offer from Denver, I think it was their 1st and their two 3rds to move up to our 1st, something like 10 spots, and Colbert turned it down. I would have taken it.

    I like certain players over others so, for me, it's better to move around and get the guys you want at a position of need rather than staying and taking a guy who does not fill a need. OLB TJ Watt had a good season but I think James Harrison would have had very similar production and we could have moved down and got an ILB and more draft picks. Watt is a good player but taking him started all the trouble with James Harrison and we knew we needed an ILB but Colbert is stubborn and doesn't want to make deals.

    So, to answer your question, I'm sure I could have moved down and gotten good value for it. If we couldn't have moved down then I think I would have taken ILB Kendell Beckwith.
     
  6. chitown steeler3

    chitown steeler3 Well-Known Member

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    Meh, rumors are exactly what they are. Rumors, can't trust them. Unless you're telling me you are one of the decision makers in the room with Colbert, hypotheticals trades just don't cut it. Plus if we're talking the '07 draft that would mean Lawrence Timmons wouldn't be a steeler, '08 would be Mendenhall (not as big of an issue with me)

    Guess I couldn't disagree with you more on this point. OLB was a much bigger need than ILB for last years draft. We had Harrison yes, but he was 39/yo. As great as he took care of his body you can't expect him to be a full time starter. On the other side was Dupree and as much as I liked him being drafted in 2015 he hadn't done anything yet to warrant that selection. Chickillo and Moats were their backups, so we had a past his prime buy and a still unproductive guy as our starters with a career backup and a guy who has stayed on the roster with nobody pushing him.

    Now the whole way they handled Harrison last year I think was on Tomlin so that's a different issue.

    But back to drafting an ILB, we had Shazier, who at the time everyone knew his talent but we were just waiting on a healthy season and V. Williams who had shown in all his previous starts that he was not only capable of playing but calling the defense. We had Matakevich who they drafted the previous year and clearly liked and Fort/Johnson as the backups who while they weren't probowlers they were core special teamers and guys that had already learned the defense. Now it obviously hurt us when we lost Shazier, but it hurt again when Matakevich got hurt as well. That's the only reason Spence was brought back and played.

    So could we have improved the depth yes, if we (at the time) wasted a high selection on an ILB that might have worked. But then we would now have Dupree (still hasn't shown starter capabilities), Harrison (possibly retired), Chickillo (future camp fodder) and Keion Adams (unproven rookie who was on IR). No one can predict an injury that may have ended Shazier's career. So going for depth over probable starter at a position that had no depth and no great options to start would have been foolish.

    Last point before you bring it up, yes I know we offered Hightower a massive contract but that was a proven player who was still young and could upgrade the whole depth of the ILB group. Colbert didn't continue searching the FA group since there wasn't anyone that would have provided as big of a boost as what Hightower could have done.
     
  7. TheMatrixHasYou

    TheMatrixHasYou Well-Known Member

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    OLB James Harrison had 5 sacks and 53 tackles in 2016, the year before that he had 5 sacks and the year before that he had 5.5 sacks. It's not a cliff, guys don't just suddenly lose it when they hit 40.

    At ILB we had Shazier and Williams. The team did not draft an ILB so they planned on starting those two. Williams is capable but he's just too slow. Matakevich is a 4.80 guy, which is okay for college but it's a problem in the NFL. Fort/Johnson, I don't know, haven't seen enough of them.

    You say that Matakevich got hurt so that's the only reason Spence was brought back to play but if we had used a draft pick on a 4th round ILB we wouldn't have had to do that. Instead of QB Joshua Dobbs they could have taken an ILB. I wanted in 2017, and I still want us to have two speedy ILB's. They need to run about 4.60 or quicker, that will help with run defense, blitzing, and covering TE's.

    Drafting ILB Jarad Davis with our 1st pick, if he was there, would not have been depth. He would have started. Using a 4th on an ILB would have been depth but instead we got QB Joshua Dobbs.

    What do you think of QB Joshua Dobbs? Is having him better than having depth at ILB that could have helped us against Jacksonville in the playoffs last year?
     
  8. chitown steeler3

    chitown steeler3 Well-Known Member

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    It should be common sense for teams to draft replacement players for guys on the wrong side of 30. Let alone a guy that was almost 40. Perfect example is the Patriots drafting Garoppolo while Brady was turning 38. Now Brady has defied the odds and kept playing at an MVP level but it was a very wise decision for them to get a QB. (which btw I'm actually expecting the Patriots to do that again this year in the 1st). With Pitt drafting Watt you got a guy who outproduced Harrison's expected 5 sack total was able to drop into coverage and make some plays (had the most passes broken up by an OLB -8)

    Could/should we have drafted an ILB in the 4th round on day 3 absolutely. I already addressed Dobbs in an earlier post
    But again, if the offers to trade up/down weren't there in the 4th who would have been a good pick? I don't see any winners from past our pick. At the time I was honestly hoping to get one of the TEs that was still available (Butt, Kittle, or Leggett) would have been good value there and we probably wouldn't have ended up trading a 5th rounder this year for Vance McDonald.
     
  9. TheMatrixHasYou

    TheMatrixHasYou Well-Known Member

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    OLB TJ Watt is a good player. I'm not saying he was not a good pick but that's pure hindsight. What I'm saying is I thought ILB was our biggest need going into last years draft and they did not address it and it hurt us big time late last season. And the reason Harrison did not produce was because he was sitting on the bench.

    If we can't trade down then we have to take the best player available? That's a Colbert excuse that he uses every year. You can always find someone to trade down with. He just doesn't like to do it.

    I wanted a TE last draft also. I had a 3rd round value on TE Jake Butt. I think we traded our 4th for Vance Mcdonald which is once again proof that Colbert drafts BPA over needs but that can really bite you in the you know what.
     
  10. chitown steeler3

    chitown steeler3 Well-Known Member

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    We didn't trade for McDonald until the end of camp.

    Saying we should have drafted an ILB last year after Shazier goes out is hindsight.

    But your argument when I boil it down comes to you feel that our OLB position was in better shape than our ILB position. Even though you agree that V. Williams is serviceable and Shazier is a top notch starter with a couple younger backups vs J. Harrison 39/yo who you expected to continue to beat the odds and Dupree who hadn't shown anything and 2 guys that barely hang onto the roster.
     
  11. TheMatrixHasYou

    TheMatrixHasYou Well-Known Member

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    We didn't trade for Mcdonald until the end of camp? Correct. We realized we needed a TE bad because they did not draft one. Jesse James doesn't have Heath Miller's hands, many times Jesse runs to a spot and turns around and then Ben throws it to make it easy on him whereas Heath would catch it over his shoulder on the run.

    Saying we should have drafted an ILB is hindsight? Then you are the only one who thought we didn't need an ILB last draft.

    Vince Williams is serviceable? He is but he runs a 4.80, not exactly great in coverage or in covering TE's. Think of having two Shaziers at ILB. How much better would our run defense and blitzing and coverage be?
     
  12. TuRnDoWnForWaTT

    TuRnDoWnForWaTT Well-Known Member

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    TMHY, sorry bro. I hated this mock draft. If this how it actually goes down I think I would smash my television.
     
  13. TheMatrixHasYou

    TheMatrixHasYou Well-Known Member

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    Cool. I own stock in LG. That's money in my pocket.
     
  14. TuRnDoWnForWaTT

    TuRnDoWnForWaTT Well-Known Member

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    That's good. I'd hang on to it. Your career as NFL draft guru dosent appear to be going so well. :thumbs_up:
     
  15. TheMatrixHasYou

    TheMatrixHasYou Well-Known Member

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    What NFL team are you a scout for again?
     
  16. TuRnDoWnForWaTT

    TuRnDoWnForWaTT Well-Known Member

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    Relax. I only clicked on the thread because you said I wouldn't like your mock. You were right I didn't. #1. No way we trade back. Not going to happen. #2. You really think we are going to double down on saftey? Even after we signed Burnett? #3. If the Steelers decide to draft a QB it will be Mason Rudolph in the first. If they don't draft him I doubt they take one. Luke Falk in the 4th makes little sense.
     
  17. TheMatrixHasYou

    TheMatrixHasYou Well-Known Member

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    #1 No way we trade back? I know. So. This is my mock, not Kevin Colberts.

    #2 Do I really think we will double down on a safety even after we signed Burnett? This mock was posted on March 16. We signed Burnett on March 20.

    #3 If the Steelers draft a QB it will be Mason Rudolph in the 1st? They only do that if they Ben actually told the team that he is only playing for 1 more year and the team told him to lie to the media and say he was playing for 3 more years.

    Luke Falk in the 4th makes little sense? Only if you think Landry Jones and Joshua Dobbs are capable backups.
     
  18. TuRnDoWnForWaTT

    TuRnDoWnForWaTT Well-Known Member

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    I do think Landry Jones has become a capable backup. The Steelers seem to think so too. I don't see much in Josh Dobbs. But the Steelers just used a pick on him last season. I doubt very highly they are going to give up on him already. It's not the Steeler way.
     
  19. steelersrule6

    steelersrule6 Well-Known Member

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    How do you just assume Falk would be a better backup QB than Landry? Jones isn't great but he's a capable backup who has won games in the league.
     
  20. TheMatrixHasYou

    TheMatrixHasYou Well-Known Member

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    Falk might not be better than Landry Jones or, he might be another Case Keenum. I draft players I like.
     
  21. steelersrule6

    steelersrule6 Well-Known Member

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    Good for you :shrug:, the Steelers aren't going use a rookie backup QB with a Super Bowl roster.
     
  22. TheMatrixHasYou

    TheMatrixHasYou Well-Known Member

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    If you're not Dan Rooney, then you don't know what the Steelers are or aren't going to do.

    Also, I don't mock what the Steelers will do. I mock what I want.

    If you want to make mocks that are exactly what the Steelers will do then try your best. I would be surprised if you can even get two of the draft picks correct.
     
  23. steelersrule6

    steelersrule6 Well-Known Member

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    FYI Dan Rooney died last year :facepalm:
     
  24. TheMatrixHasYou

    TheMatrixHasYou Well-Known Member

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    Dan, Art, Kevin Colbert, Tomlin whatever, who cares. I'll still mock who I want.

    Let's see you get at least two Steelers draft picks correct since you think you know what the Steelers are going to do.
     
  25. steelersrule6

    steelersrule6 Well-Known Member

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    1.Rashaan Evans-ILB
    2.Jessie Bates-Safety
    3.Anthony Miller-WR
    5.Jeff Holland-OLB
    5.Kallen Ballage-RB
    7.David Bright-OT
     

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