HugeSnack's 2011 Grades -- Every Play -- DEFENSE

[gdoc:ryttwova]0Apwqc--L1z4pdEp1aVBIZExJTE11d1RhenVsYXJIeVE[/gdoc:ryttwova]

And the link, if you'd rather see it there...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Apwqc--L1z4pdEp1aVBIZExJTE11d1RhenVsYXJIeVE#gid=0

Questions and comments are welcome.

 

Reading the Scores – Things to Know

The Basics – For every play, each player is assigned a positive, negative, or neutral score. He can get +1, +2, +3, -1, -2, -3, or 0. Most plays result in 0. I graded 13 games (the ones on my DVR). I did miss the first 2 minutes or so of the Arizona game. Boo-hoo.

The Overall Scores are a combination of positives and negatives for that game. For example, if Ike Taylor registered 6 positive points in pass defense against a team, and also 4 negative points, his Overall Score would be +2. In the grid, it will just look like 2, without the plus sign. This does not necessarily mean that he had 6 good plays and 4 bad plays, because each play can register up to 3 positive or negative points. He may have had 2 great plays of +3, 1 bad play of -2, and 2 bad plays of -1. This measures what kind of game the player had in each category, after considering the weight of each good play and bad play. Remember that this is a number on a timeline, not how many good or bad plays they had. That can be easily forgotten for the players who are very good or very bad and only have positive or negative scores.

The Frequency is the total number of positive and negative plays a player had in a game. For this number, it doesn’t matter how much each play was worth, only how many times it happened. This is a good way to measure how often a player is successful and how often he’s not, without considering how great his good plays or how severe his bad plays.

Splash Factor and Stink Factor separate all the big plays – the +2, +3, -2, -3 – in order to highlight the way a player helps or hurts the team. Does he tend to mess up a lot, but only a little at a time, like William Gay? Or does he mess up less frequently, but in bigger chunks, like Ike Taylor? Does he get more points from a steady stream of good plays or does he get them more by flashing greatness? These have already been included in the Overall Score, so they are not additional. It’s just a way to see how much of it came from where.

Scoring Caveats – Not all positions are created equal!

Not all of the positions’ scores can be viewed exactly equally. For example, it is easier for defensive linemen to get Splash points than it is for offensive linemen. So just because Steve McLendon has a higher Splash Factor than Maurkice Pouncey doesn’t mean that he played better, or had a bigger impact on games.

Quarterback – Passing means throwing, and nothing else. Running means running up the field, which he really didn’t do this year thanks to his injuries. Pocket presence is for movement behind the line of scrimmage, and those points can be +1, +2, +3, -1, -2, -3, depending on how brilliant/retarded Ben was on that particular play.

Getting a point: No points are awarded for passes that every quarterback should make every time. That means quick screens (I’d also say regular screens if we ran them), dumpoffs, short passes where the defense didn’t really have a chance. +1 point for good passes with some degree of difficulty. Maybe it’s a pass that we’d be disappointed if he didn’t make it, but if it wasn’t 100% routine and it was an accurate ball, it’s +1 point.

Losing a point: Missed throws that he should have made that aren’t in danger of being intercepted.

Splash Factor: +2 points for the harder ones, usually in the 15-25 yard range, or shorter if there was something else about it that was special. +3 points for the truly excellent throws, or good throws on very deep balls.

Stink Factor: Bad throws that are or risk interception, or bad decisions that risk interception, or sack, or something else bad.

Running – For RBs and WRs and QBs, but mostly RBs.

Getting a point and Splash Factor: Gaining more yards than what’s to be expected. This could be from a fake-out, a broken tackle, or just dragging a player a few extra yards. What the runner did, not the outcome of the play, is what counts. For example, Jonathan Dwyer ran 78 yards, but only scored a +2 because the blocking was so pristine that he only had to take care of one defender himself. Mendenhall and Redman each had runs for 15 yards or less that scored the same +2. If the runner makes 10 yards happen by himself and breaks two tackles along the way, he could get a +2. If he gets blocking so beautiful that it’s 10 yards before he even sees an opponent (not likely with us), then he might not register any points at all. The exception to this rule is for touchdowns. When it’s a rushing TD, +1 point is added to whatever it would have been. If it would have been a 0 point run, he gets +1. If it would have been +2, he gets +3.

More or less, each time the runner extends the play significantly or impressively, he gets a point. If he runs 4 yards, gets hit and goes down for a 5 yard gain, that’s 0 points, because any RB can do that. If he gets hit hard after 4 yards, but pushes and drags and goes down for a 7 or 8 yard gain, that’s +1 point. If he breaks that tackle and runs for 15 more yards, that’s +2 points. If there’s no hole up the middle and he takes his own route outside for a 12 yard gain, that could be +2 points. It’s less sexy than following the hole and breaking one tackle for 12 yards, but it’s more of a single man effort to find your own hole after the blocking let you down. Runs with more than 2 points of extension are +3.

Losing a point: Almost never happens. I think it happened to each of our RBs like once, all year. Mendenhall because he tried to bounce a short yardage run outside but lost a yard, Redman because he ran into Starks’ ass and then fell down, and Dwyer because he did like 9 stutter steps in a row and then fell down. Looked like a baby learning to walk for the first time.

Stink Factor: Fumbles. That’s about it.

Receiving – For WRs and TEs, and also RBs.

Getting a point: Almost any reception of any significance. Just like with the QBs, nothing that is an absolute gimmie, like quick screens, or really short crossing routes that result in few yards. Most receptions short of 15 yards are 1 point. Similar to how I give CBs +1 point for tight coverage when the ball isn’t thrown their way, I also give +1 point for a receiver burning a DB even if he doesn’t get the ball. Unfortunately, that is rarely seen on TV, except on replays, which I only had for the primetime games.

Losing a point: Usually when there’s a miscommunication between QB and WR, I can tell who is to blame, but not always. When I’m pretty sure it was the WR, it’s -1. It might be a mistake worth -3, but since I can never be positive, I only subtract 1. Most drops are -2, but if he drops one that was very difficult, it could be -1.

Splash Factor: Bigger plays, or nicer plays. Could be a 20 yard dig route, a 50 yard TD, or a 8 yard catch (+1) with a 10 yard run (+1). Could also be a tip-toe sideline catch for 5 yards.

Stink Factor: Dropped passes are typically -2.

Offensive Line – It’s long been a shame that any given offensive lineman can have 49 great plays in a game, but if he has one bad one he will be ridiculed as worthless. It is their job to protect, and if they fail it is obvious to all and they are plastered on the screen as failures. Luckily, we are able to see every play they do, and so we can get a very accurate picture of how many times they are successful and how many times they aren’t.

Gaining a point: To be awarded a point, they had to meet two criteria: Did he do his job? and Was his job difficult? If the answer was yes to both, then the player is awarded 1 point for the play. Many times the player does a fine job, but has no challenge, such as when a left tackle just shields the RDE on a toss play to the right side. He would not get a point. In the passing game, many times the ball is thrown before the defense had a chance to rush the passer. Even if the OL was in good position and may have made a good block, if he did not hold it for a substantial amount of time, he did not get a point. Examples of when points are not awarded through no fault of the player: double teams in the running game, or getting help in pass protection – only eligible for a point when blocking one on one for a substantial amount of time. Maurkice Pouncey is one player who suffered a bit from this rule, because he rarely blocked by himself in pass protection, instead usually finding someone else to help.

Losing a point: No one can hold a block forever, but if the player loses it before he should have, he will lose a point. It’s important to note that I didn’t take away points every time a defender broke free. They all break free eventually. It has to be unacceptably soon. Example of what I typically say when spotting a -1 play, for context: “Oh, man, Legursky. You gotta do better than that!” 5 yard penalties also lose 1 point.

Splash Factor: It is very hard for an OL to get splash points. He basically has to either have a real pancake block against a guy who didn’t slip or trip, or sustain a pass block by himself for a very, very long time.

Stink Factor: Unfortunately, it’s a lot easier to get stink points. These are when the blocks are missed right away, or almost right away. The whiffs. The kind that won’t just mess up a play, but get a guy killed. These happened a lot, sadly. Example of what I typically say when spotting a -2 play: “Jesus Christ, Scott. You trying to get him killed?” Example of what I typically say when spotting a -3 play: “What the f***, Kemo!! Did you just have a stroke?” Also 10 and 15 yard penalties are given stink points, the amount depending on how bad they were.

Pass Defense: DBs and LBs – These guys suffer from the camera frame more than anyone. It is much easier for players in pass coverage to lose points than it is to gain points. Especially true for CBs. Most of the times they are successful in pass coverage, it is not seen on camera. Most of the times they are unsuccessful, it IS seen on camera. Therefore, unlike other positions and categories, a score of 0 or even -1 may actually mean a good or great performance, depending on playing time and competition. Since they are mainly just trying to prevent damage instead of creating good, the most important categories here are frequency of negative plays and Stink Factor, in addition to pass defense score. It should be noted that tackling on a pass play right at the LOS, like on a quick screen, counts as run defense (because those plays are just long handoffs with no trickery or misdirection, and it reads just like a running play for a CB) but tackling after a completion of any real amount of yards counts as pass defense. So if Ike Taylor allows a completion and Ryan Clark misses a point blank tackle, Clark loses a point in pass defense, not run defense.

Getting a point: Regardless of where or if the ball was thrown, if tight coverage is visible on camera, and there was some degree of difficulty involved (not just a FB wandering out of the backfield at half speed), 1 point was awarded. No points are awarded to anyone for making tackles after completion, because that is fully expected.

Losing a point: The most common way to lose 1 point is to allow a completion of substantial yardage. What’s “substantial” can vary greatly by down and distance, time of game, and opinion. Basically, if it was a completion that we didn’t want them to get, 1 point is lost. For example, suppose a team completes an 8 yard out route and the tackle is made on the spot. If it was 1st and 10 in the 3rd quarter, 1 point would be subtracted from the DB covering. If it was 3rd and 15, no points would be subtracted, because the DB is happy with the result and I will give him the benefit of the doubt that he played accordingly. If it was 2nd and 5, but there were only 20 seconds left in the half and they were on their own 30 yard line, no points are subtracted because it’s still a good defensive play, despite giving up the 1st down… Also, if poor coverage is seen on camera and the ball is not thrown to that receiver, 1 point is still subtracted.

Splash Factor: A batted down pass is automatically +2 points, and an INT is +3. Splash points can also be given for run support, but they follow the same rules as the DL. +1 point if they were unblocked, +2/+3 if they beat a blocker and make the tackle.

Stink Factor: Getting torched badly, or giving up a huge amount of yards, or making two -1 mistakes on the same play (allowing an 8 yard out route completion and then missing the tackle).

Defensive Line – This was honestly one of the hardest positions for me to judge, even though they are visible every play. There are some caveats to their numbers.

-DL Run Defense: These guys win and lose battles all day long, and most of them don’t really affect the play. It’s such a weird position, because they aren’t really expected to be making tackles most of the time, but rather control the offensive linemen and not allow lanes to open up. Also, lots of times the ball is run so far away from them that they have no chance of helping in any way at all, unless it’s a reverse. They might get blocked, they might beat the guy, but I just didn’t include any of it, especially since in those situations usually one or both of the guys isn’t trying his hardest. So the criteria was much harder to judge than for an OL, which is a very simple “did he block the guy?” Heck, most of the time when they make a good play, they are still getting blocked some amount while they’re doing it. Basically, if a DL made a substantial impact in stopping a running play by beating his blocker – either by getting past him, pushing him back, or just positioning himself well enough to disrupt the RB’s path – he got a point. If he got blocked worse than what’s acceptable and he was somewhere near the play (common), or if he had a good chance to make a tackle and missed (very uncommon), he lost a point.

-DL Splash Factor: If a DL beats a block and makes the tackle, he gets 2 points. If it’s especially impressive, such as he beat a double team to make a tackle, or made an amazing tackle, he could get 3 points. Also, batting down passes is an automatic 2 points. Sacks are 2 or 3 points, depending.

-DL Stink Factor: It wasn’t until I was almost done that I realized I hadn’t given out any stink points to any defensive linemen all year. I guess I was saving that for when a guy really got driven back, just plowed right over. That never happened. It was rare enough that I felt they got blocked out of the play badly enough to lose one point.

-DL Pass defense: This includes batting down balls at the LOS, reading/disrupting screens, and actually dropping into coverage. It does not include pass rush, which brings me to…

Pass Rush (all positions): This is a low percentage win statistic. For all pass rushers, you lose like 90% of the time. So I didn’t take away points from pass rushers, ever, just because they didn’t beat their guy or get a QB hurry. The pass rush points are not a combination of +’s and -‘s like the others, they are simply a tally of points. Typically, a hurry will get you 1 point, and a sack 2 or 3, with some room for movement. I only took away points in the Denver game, from a couple of guys, because it was SO bad I had no choice (they were standing and watching Tebow instead of trying to get him). But the important thing to remember here is that if a guy has 14 pass rush points, that doesn’t mean he might have had 21 positives and 7 negatives like it might mean for his run defense score, it just means he had 14 positive points and that’s it, because I didn’t count the negatives (it would probably be like 300, and why depress ourselves?).

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For players of all positions in all situations, degree of difficulty is considered. For example, I don’t blame a player for missing a block when he clearly had absolutely no chance of ever making that block, given where the two lined up pre-snap. The TEs trying to go block a CB that’s in bump & run coverage on a quick screen; he has to run 10 yards to beat the CB, who only has to go 3 yards, and is faster? Stupid. Or if a WR is blasted hard as soon as he gets his hands on the ball – and he drops it, I’ll only take away 1 point instead of 2. If he catches it, I’ll add a point to whatever it would have been. The same goes if something is too easy instead of too hard. If a defensive end rushes an OT but stops as soon as he gets there and then just bounces around watching the QB without really rushing at all, no point can be awarded, because there is no difficulty. I don't, however, consider an opponent's talent level when looking at degree of difficulty. Ike Taylor's scores are judged the same whether he's facing Larry FitzGerald or some Cleveland scrub. Notes about competition are sometimes made in the comment section, but the scores won't be affected.

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FAQ

What about what you can’t see on camera? – It may seem a little odd or half-assed to go through so much work knowing that I can’t know everything for every play – the play called, an individual responsibility, and what happens out of the camera’s frame. But I did it anyway to prove what we see on TV is enough to accurately evaluate players, if you take the time to do it properly, and are open to yourself to see things honestly. And with proper adjustments as explained below, you can compensate for what we don’t see in the huddle and out of frame. And for most of it, there isn’t even any mystery. Probably 95% of the time, the assignment is clear. It was very rare that I wasn’t positive about what a player was supposed to do, and very rare that a player heavily involved in a play wasn’t on camera.

Did you really score them fairly or did you cheat a little bit to make “your guys” turn out on top? I won’t deny that I had opinions about certain players going into this. I thought that Rashard Mendenhall was catching way too much heat that he did nothing to deserve. Of course, that was on my mind as I was evaluating him. He graded well in my evaluation, perhaps to no one’s surprise. But keep in mind that I wasn’t exactly misinformed when I began. I had already seen every game – more than once – and paid close attention each time. So it makes sense that most of the scores align with the opinions I had about players three months ago. I did my absolute best to stay away from bias while grading. Players that I’d fought for in the past, like Mendenhall, are the ones I was hardest on. I scrutinized everything they did in order to make sure they earned every point and didn’t get anything for free. I did that for three big reasons. One, it’s ethical. Two, I wanted to make sure it would hold up to audit; just in case anyone here wants to look up a game and watch every single play and challenge me, I want to be able to hold my ground and explain where each point came from. And I can. And three, I didn’t just spend several months on this thing just for the sake of learning absolutely nothing. I wanted to know the truth about everyone, not just what other people thought from their vague memories, and not just what I thought from mine. And while I feel like I was mostly right about mostly everyone, I did learn things that surprised me. Some guys I liked did not score as high as I hoped, some guys I didn’t like scored better than I thought, some guys exceeded expectations and others came in below disappointment. Now I know. Next year maybe I’ll do all 19 games.

 

Woo hoo! Glad to see the fruition of all your hard work, man.

I might pass up the offer to watch every play of every game to certify the results, if you don't mind... I will instead get on with digesting your analysis.

 

And having had a quick scan...

By far the most interesting results for me are Hood, Timmons and Lewis.

Hood, because I rarely notice him on the field when I'm watching the game (as opposed to looking at a replay). So this kind of explains why: solid in the run, not really committing to the pass rush. I'm intrigued as to whether he responds to Heyward's development in camp, or whether the coaches simply build up Heyward as a pass rusher and consilidate Hood as a solid lineman who is excellent against the run.

Timmons - I've always thought he was a smart guy, and while I think he's been a victim of coaches moving him about and changing his role (obviously in part due to injuries), still think he can be an incredible LB for us. I was not expecting him to have such a poor show, ratings-wise. So a surprise for me there.

Lewis - It's interesting that you don't hold much hope for him becoming anything more than a solid back up (if I've read you right). We're all sitting here hoping that the DBs step up next season, but from the ratings, I'm wondering if we're basing this a little too much on our black and gold optimism rather than ability. I hope I'm wrong, though!

Thanks again, 'Snack - this must have taken you ages to do, and it's really, really useful and interesting information.

 

good job snack. not alot of suprises for me, pretty much what i thought. timmons finished strong. ziggy is OK. (first rounder?) foote.... a couple of good games, but besides those subpar. cam... showed flashes. more aggressive then ziggy but not certain how to use it yet. smith...solid.... early wasen't as good but came on. ike...still solid, but it's starting the other way some. mclendon... is what he is for now. harrison and woodley.... when healthy are still rocks. harrison has pass coverage skills. woodley will get out of position at times against the run but stiil stout most of the time. worilds.... yes there will be a dropoff if he replaces harrison,but who wouldn't? overall, nice job though. Thank You.

 

Thanks for this Snack!! I'll obviously need some time to review it but first glance looks like you put in some serious effort. Really appreciate it

 

Great job snack! Thanks for all the hard work.

 

Wow, this is impressive, awesome job! I'll take a look at it in more detail when I'm not at work and see what sticks out to me. Thanks for doing this!

 

I should have mentioned, special thanks to TTF, who was instrumental in helping me post it.

 

Nice work, there is a lot of info here

 

Moo chews grass is us.

I think that's Spanish for thanks a lot.

 

Thanks for the hard work in putting this together. I really don't want to say anything critiquing because it was your 1st effort and I know you have thoughts on how to change things. I'd like to see you put neg scores in red and pos in blue just to make it an easier read and maybe include the oppoenents name somewhere to spark my memory.

I'm jealous you have so many on DVR. I have a few and the other games I watched online so no recording was available.

I enjoyed your comment section. I agree McLendon is a good player. I just don't think NT is a good fit for him. He's more of a 4-3 DT which would translate him to our DE position. Timmons I really do like,contrary to what I've projected, but he isn't that Great versatile LB he's been pimped as. Keep him inside and if we loose 2 OLB again we should switch to a 4-3 makiing him the Sam, Foote the Mike and Stevenson the will. I, as you can tell, don't think timmons coverage skills are that great, its ok at best.

Foote; the best thing he did in relief of Farrior was call the plays and make the adjustments. That is what sealed Farriors release. He still isn't that good making the play so Spence and stevenson really has an opportunity in front of them.

Lewis and Gay: It was Gay's best season as CB and him leaving as a starter should give us a good comp pick ( maybe a 5th) next year and Lewis is a different type guy. All of our CB's except Ike are small guys and are asked not to press but keep ther play in front of them. With Lewis we're getting bigger vs the bigger WRs so maybe we'll see more press at the line but this means Clark and Troy will have to stay back off the line more. with Troy slowing down some ( his instincts & intuition make him faster than just pure speed) this may be shift in defense strategy. Brown, Allen and Mundy seal the deal.

Ziggy & Heyward: As fans we seem a bit disappointed in Ziggys performance and excited about Heyward's potential but dismayed as to his bench time. The Org. seems to really like Hood, maybe because his reserve play is due to him being overly concerned about gap integrity ( A. Smith was always in the right place all the time and still pressure the QB and made the play) and maybe Heyward is being held back because he gets caught out of place because he's trying to too hard to make a play. They're both good young DL and if Hood takes some of Heywards agressiveness and Heyward takes some of Hood's Gap responsibility focus we'll have a super DL.

Thanks again.... Cajun-

 

If you want the games go to pirate bay and type in NFL Steelers all games from last season, 2010,2009 as well as a few random games from 08' and 79' an random documentries I have about 106-110 gb of HD steelers games from that place not to mention the nifty documentries

 

And a huge shout out and big thanks to HugeSnack's dedication to the MB much appreciated great read and look forward to more at some point.

 

Amazing! Will have to spend some time with this.

 

Offense grades are finished, but due to technical difficulties won't be posted until next week.

 

i hate technical difficulties.

 

Snack, you know I have been waiting for this since you informed us about it. Great job... Heck of an effort! Thanks for giving us something to really chew on before camp.

Bravo!

 

waiting patiently.

 

I feel like you should attempt to send this to the front office

 

It's waitin' for ya.

 

I'm not sure how I let this thread slide without responding to any of the comments, but I somehow did, so I'll respond to some now.

Obviously I didn't know about Hood's physical transformation when I did the evaluation, so I have even more hope for him now. I think he already had all the tools he needed (and now even more), including willingness to improve, and I'm expecting a major leap from him this year. He said exactly what I wanted to hear from him, that he didn't like what he saw of himself when he looked at the tape. He's clearly taken extreme measures to improve the physical aspect, and so I'm confident he's also taking the measures needed to improve the mental part too. And he's a smart guy, so I don't see any way he disappoints in 2012.

A lot like Hood, I think his issues are all upstairs. In Timmons' case, he needs to get into the groove of things. When he's in the zone mentally and others around him are playing well, he's one of the best in the league because he's such a physical specimen. When things fall apart around him, he becomes just another linebacker. What pleasantly surprised me about him is the lack of mental mistakes from him. I don't remember seeing any busted coverages or anything like that. Intelligence was my #1 concern with him, but there's nothing on the tape that shows lack of intelligence at all. The worst he shows is a lack of "edge." But sometimes it's there, and that's when he's great... And it goes without saying that he was seriously messed up by the problems all around him, and having to change positions.

Well, I do have hope. But that's about all I have. Lewis has all the physical tools he needs, so he's got step one covered. But in his third year he still looked like a rookie to me. Not comfortable, making rookie mistakes. What are the odds a 4th year CB is going to massively improve? Well, last year our 5th year CB massively improved under Carnell Lake, so maybe it can happen again. I just want to caution people that unless that happens, Lewis will lose his job, and possibly a game or two in the process.