2 Point Conversion When Up 7?

I'm a big fan of the advanced strategy I see some(few) coaches using in going for a 2 point conversion when up by 7. It is a low risk, high reward strategy, especially against a team with Brady and Gronk that can complete 2 pointers at will. I think it is a mistake for the Steelers not go for two after the touchdown late in the third quarter. I don't fault them too much since it is a newly emerging strategy, but look at the scenarios...

1. Kick it and go up by 8. Let's say he makes the kick 100% of the time. You are up by 1 score against a team that is very good at getting 2 point conversions. Maybe your have like a 60% chance of winning the game at that point.

2. Go for two, and let's say you are successful 50% of the time. Go up by 9, two scores and have maybe a 75-80% chance of winning.

3. Go for two and miss and are up 7. Not a big deal, because if the opponent scores, they are most likely just going to kick and tie it up. Maybe up by 7 with a quarter left, your chances of winning are like 55%.

I just thing in the long run, your chances of winning are better going for two there. The percentages are rough estimates, but you get the idea. Thoughts?

 

I called for it in the game thread and got shot down. After seeing the Pats convert in last year's Super Bowl, I knew being down 8 meant nothing to them. Being down 9, is a different story. You can't play by the book against them and we did, including the 4th and 1 punt.

Not playing in our fears my a$$

 

My 10 year old son was lobbying hard for this.

 

I was more for going for it on 4th and 1. Yeah I know it was our side of the field. But, they still would of had to score a TD, and if they score it fast, still leaves you with your timeouts and time to go either get the FG to win or tie for OT.

 

I was yelling at the TV to go for 2! If you miss it you're up by 7, NE wouldn't go for 2 IMO. So, kind of a no-brainer for me.

 

If PIT fails on the two-point try and NE subsequently scores a touchdown ...

Why would NE kick an extra point if they "can complete 2 pointers at will"?

 

It's amazing how ne completed not 1 but 2 two points conversion and won the sb but TOMLIN chickened out...smh...

 

The league average seems to be about 51%. NE is 60% over the last 15 years and I'm sure even higher with Gronk. So not quite "at will" but a high likelihood. But at the same time, in most situations NE is going to consider themselves a superior team and have an even higher than 60-65% chance of winning when tied. That is why we see them consistently still kicking to force ties. But even bad teams' coaches usually choose the option kicking for the tie.