WHICH TEAMS WILL BE LOOKING FOR QB'S?

Unfortunately several teams will be looking. Here’s my take:

Definitely Looking:
Browns - after ruining Kizer, they’ll find another young QB to destroy
Giants - Eli is about done
Jets - I hear that they love Josh Allen
Cards - they may trade way up this year to grab a guy like Rosen or Darnold
Bills - they clearly don’t like Taylor, and I don’t think they’ve ever thought of Peterman as the future
Jags - Blake Bortles is their kryptonite

These teams will make the top of the 1st round very intriguing. I really see the Cards making a big move. They may even package a bunch of picks to entice Cleveland’s dopey brass into a trade to #1 before the draft (if those Cleveland dip___s are still employed). The Jets may do the same with the 49ers, who would be very wise to deal. Just my gut feeling.

Maybe Looking:
Broncos - Lynch’s absence is getting interesting. When he has seen the field, he’s sucked.
Colts - just how bad is Luck’s shoulder that he needs to go to Europe for treatment?
Chargers - I think they’ll try to add another piece to win with Rivers in R1, but they could go QB
Skins - if Cousins leaves, they need a QB badly
Bengals - have they had enough of Dalton yet?
Ravens - Flacco is too expensive for what he brings. It may be time depending on how they finish
Saints - Brees is getting up there, but he still has it big-time.

I think 1 or 2 of those teams could grab a 1st round QB if one slips to them. One could even surprise us and trade up like KC did last year.

How does it affect us? I see us drafting in the 29-32 range. Lots of teams are vying for the QB talent in this draft. We probably can’t piece together enough ammo to get to guys like Rosen, Darnold (if he comes out) or Allen (ditto). There also may be other guys who go before us like Rudolph, Mayfield (who I really like) or Jackson (who I really don’t like). The chance of us getting a legit 1st round QB talent is very low IMO.

 

I forgot the Vikes. Add another shopper. There are way more teams looking for a QB than legit 1st round QB prospects, even in this QB-heavy draft. The very few available FA QBs won’t fill enough openings to allow us to be in the sweepstakes for guys like Rosen and Darnold. Also, those FA QBs aren’t exactly franchise players. Maybe Cousins, but that’s about it. Smith is under contract for another season, and the combined cap hit for Smith and Mahomes is less than a handful of individual QB cap hits. So, it’s far from a foregone conclusion that he’ll be available. After that you’re talking McCarron (overhyped with no real track record IMO), Bradford (glass), and maybe guys who get released like Tyrod Taylor, Dalton or Siemen. Not intriguing.

My guess is that if Ben retires, our starter next year is one of the guys on our current roster or a cut like Tyrod Taylor on a 1 or2 year deal while a QB who’s not pro ready (maybe Dobbs) is groomed. Don’t expect a top tier QB to land in our laps on draft day and take over in his rookie season. That’s really, really unlikely. Supply and demand is not our friend.

 

First of all, if Garappalo hits the market, then San Fran enters the list as the neediest team. Secondly, none of the rest of those FAs are likely to deter a team from taking a 1st round QB, except for Cousins (and if changes teams, Washington is probably all in for a 1st round QB). Third, I’m reading that neither Darnold or Allen may come out this year (I don’t think Allen should).

Those other FAs are stop gaps that teams will sign to start while a 1st rounder gets ready. Only Cousins (and Garappalo if SF doesn’t extend him) are likely to dissuade a team from grabbing a 1st round QB. If any of the guys you listed falls to our range, it will be because no team views him as being good enough, not because the teams aren’t looking for QBs. I don’t think all of those guys are locks. Rudolph has some mixed tape that can be scary, Mayfield is short and Jackson is a runner first, passer second.

There will be QBs available with potential when we pick, but the only guy with a realistic shot of being there that I see as close to NFL ready is Mayfield. I love his game, but I’m also reading that some scouts have as low as a 3rd round grade on him (though I can’t understand why).

My guess is that at least 4-5 QBs go before we’re even in trade-up range. Just my view, and I have a TON more tape to watch to know who “my” guys are (though I will say that Rosen’s arm talent is fantastic, and Allen has a good gun too).

 

Wishful thinking IMO. Would you be comfortable with Tyrod Taylor as our long run solution at QB to the point where you’d pass on a guy you think could be our franchise QB for the next decade? Same question for Bradford, Keenum, McCarron, etc. I would hope the answer is no if you ever want to have a true franchise QB again. Why would you expect any other team to sign one of those guys and pass on a QB prospect that they like?

Consider the Bears last year. They had just signed Mike Glennon, and then drafted Trubisky. They spent some good coin on Glennon, but were not going to pass in their potential franchise QB in the draft. Very few teams will pass on their potential franchise QB when they don’t already have one. Not every front office is as dumb as the Browns’ moneyball team.

Your view that someone is going to get Bradford or McCarron and say “we’re good, no need for Sam Darnold!” sounds like wishful thinking to me. If QB needy teams (other than Cleveland) pass on a QB, it’s because the guys they have graded high are gone.

 

The run will last as long as the QBs that are graded in the 1st round (by the teams, not the media) are available. I still think that, for the most part, signing a FA will only dissuade a team from drafting a QB if 1) they see the FA as the long term answer (I only see Cousins in tha5 category), or 2) they see someone on their roster as the long term answer, and want the FA to bridge the gap. By the way, we may be in the latter category depending on how our coaches and front office see Dobbs’ long run potential. It’s possible that the Bills or Broncos may be there as well, though I’m doubting that with the Bills. Bottom line is that the demand will be high enough such that a consensus top 3 QB is not getting anywhere close to where we pick. The only guys we have a shot at are ones that very few other teams have graded as 1st round talent.

We have months of film watching ahead of us to come up with our own views on the individual prospects. Focusing on the QB position will be fun and new, and a bit scary as well given the stakes. I’ll watch plenty of film on the top guys, but my focus will primarily be on guys outside of the top ranked 3-5 QBs because I think that’s where we will need to find our guy.

 

Actually, I think Dobbs may be part of the plan. I could see us going into next season with Landry, Dobbs and a 2nd - 4th round rookie as the 3 QBs on the roster if Ben hangs up his cleats. Or maybe substitute a guy like Tyrod Taylor in place of Landry as s the short term starter. I think Dobbs will have a chance to compete to be the long term starter, and I don’t think we’ll spend a bunch of draft picks to move up for someone else. I honestly would not be terribly surprised if Dobbs becomes a quality NFL QB. I think having him as Plan A is a bit scary, but he has the physical tools and intelligence to succeed. We haven’t seen him since preseason, but our coaches and FO have seen him every day since. I wonder what he’s shown them.

 

Trading up in the 2nd is much, much less costly than trading up in the 1st, and yeah we could see that happen. A trade up in the first is certainly possible to grab a guy we like who doesn’t go in the Top 15-20 picks, but we’re not going to move up into the Top 10 for a top rated guy. The Rosens and Darnolds of the world are out of reach unless they fall sharply (which would happen for a reason).