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1st Round Odds

Discussion in 'The Bill Nunn Draft Room' started by SteelCity_NB, Mar 25, 2017.

  1. SteelCity_NB

    SteelCity_NB Staff Member Mod Team

    5,418
    684
    Oct 23, 2011
    Thought I would throw these up. These are guys I want/are interested in at #30. I've left guys off this list either because I think they are 0% likely to be there, not a position a need, or just not interested in at all.

    What are your odds of these guys being available?

    Jabrill Peppers
    Obi Melinfonwu
    Haason Reddick
    Tim Williams
    Takk McKinley
    TJ Watt
    Adoree Jackson
    Garrett Bolles
    John Ross

    My odds:

    Peppers - 10%
    I really like Peppers. I think he's a special player. I think alot of other teams feel the same way.

    Melinfonwu - 20%
    I had him as a 2nd round pick but I think the Combine pushed him well into Round 1. Have a hard time seeing him get past the Raiders, Cowboys and Seahawks.

    Haason Reddick - 10%
    Another guy that I had as a Round 2 guy that I think had a great combine and could be a top 15 pick.

    Tim Williams - 90%
    I think his off field issues and the fact he is more of a situational pass rusher will push him down into Round 2. Might have the best first step and be the most explosive pass rusher.

    Takk McKinley - 90%
    Falling a bit in my eyes. Shoulder surgery will push him down a bit.

    TJ Watt - 60%
    I think he is probably good value at #30. I think some teams may fall in love with his bloodlines and heart.

    Adoree Jackson - 95%
    I see Jackson as a game changer and playmaker. Not overall polished but knows how to hit the big play. I do see it unlikely that we go CB in Round 1 in back to back years.

    Garrett Bolles - 5%
    Highly unlikely to be around. Not sure if his overage status could play a factor in moving him down boards. Alot to love about his style of play.

    John Ross - 30%
    Probably won't be around. His knee issues could push him down but the fact he just ran 4.22 speaks to the current status of his knees. Imagine him in our offense?
     
    SteelCity_NB, Mar 25, 2017
    SteelCity_NB, Mar 25, 2017
    #1
  2. cajunyankee

    cajunyankee Well-Known Member

    4,141
    690
    Oct 27, 2011
    No way Jackson makes it to #30. CB is a Premium position meaning these guys are almost always over drafted. Many 2nd rd guys will go 1st rd and so on until the draft is over. The exact opposite is for RBs where there is always quality in later rds.

    Ross's speed instantly made him money...He'll be no later than the 3rd WR taken.

    Obi---- I too had him as a late 2nd but he has risen into the late 1st....MAYBE early 2nd. He is raw and a poor tackler for a safety but he's learning and is very smart, High Character guy. I see him as a FS only and would take him...

    Peppers is a strong safety to me and we have Davis. I do like him and if we draft him we could move Davis to FS to cut Mitchell.

    Reddick reminds me of Timmons and will be gone. I like Takk and Watt and think they have a chance to get to us.

    Cajun-
     
    cajunyankee, Mar 25, 2017
    cajunyankee, Mar 25, 2017
    #2
  3. AskQuestionsLater

    AskQuestionsLater Writing Team

    24,397
    6,244
    Apr 21, 2016


    Hard time debating this.


    I would increase Obi's and Watt's percentages but edge rushers are such a commodity and what Obi can do for a team is ridiculous scheme wise..... all the while not including his combine performance either.
     
    AskQuestionsLater, Mar 25, 2017
    AskQuestionsLater, Mar 25, 2017
    #3
  4. turtle

    turtle

    8,542
    1,375
    Jan 14, 2015
    I did my first round mock yesterday and came up with some different percentages

    Peppers 70% - he said himself 30 teams view him as a safety, one team as a LBer, and one on offense. I think this pushes him down slightly because he was not a full time S.
    Melifonwu - same
    Reddick - 20%
    T. Williams - same
    McKinley - 10% Dallas and Green Bay have the same needs at OLB
    Watt - same
    Jackson - same
    Bolles - same
    Ross - 50% I had him and Mike Williams available at 30. FA cleared WR from being a need for the teams I thought could draft them. Doesn't mean they won't add to it but jmo.
     
    turtle, Mar 26, 2017
    turtle, Mar 26, 2017
    #4

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