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~ OFFICIAL 2016 TSF.COM FANTASY DRAFT STEELERS VOTING & DISCUSSION ~

Discussion in 'The Bill Nunn Draft Room' started by gpguy, Mar 3, 2016.

  1. RPO IZSB

    RPO IZSB Well-Known Member

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    I don't know how you come away thinking he's a 2 down run stuffer.

    When I look at my board, I don't see any logic in moving down in the first, to move up in the 2nd.
     
  2. turtle

    turtle

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    Doesn't rattling off a bunch of names who can help the team make the draft deep? A lot of talent in rounds 3 and 4. Some positions are deeper than others as always.
     
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  3. NY STEELERFAN

    NY STEELERFAN Well-Known Member

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    Ok so the real issue here is you have Billings a ton higher then I do and from the sounds of it a lot of other people here do. With that said you only trade back the number of spot you have "prime" picks for, example here we have Billings, Apple, Fuller, WJ3, Dodd and Ogbah. All these guys offer very similar value so moving back 6 spot would not hurt. Now I was saying the Packers is a good fit for us to trade with and that's 2 spots, Seattle is 1 not gonna hurt while gaining an extra pick.

    Speaking of the extra pick, yes rattling off a bunch of names does make the class deep. If you don't understand that fine I can't change your mind. There are guys in the projected 4th and 5th round that I would jump for joy over Sean Davis, Cryus Jones and Harlan Miller would offer impact from day one.

    It isn't like I am saying trade from the #5 pick to the #25 pick or even out o the 1st round, I am talking 2-5 picks. With that much talent on the board it is a nobrainer!!!
     
  4. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    Well, that's because you view one of the remaining players as being special. It's your opinion, not a fact. I don't. I viewed a group of players of similar value being available. In that case, trading down makes perfect sense to pick up more ammo for the draft crap shoot. With respect to trading back up, I've been doing a lot of mock drafts on the fanspeak site, and very often the last guy that I have in that low 1st/high 2nd tier goes within 10 picks of our 2nd. Having more ammo provides the opportunity to move up and get that guy.

    To be clear, I would never advocate trading down before going on the clock, and knowing exactly who is available, or trading up blindly until the pick you're trading for is on the clock.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  5. RPO IZSB

    RPO IZSB Well-Known Member

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    Trading down because you can't make a pick for yourself, so you allow other teams to make the decision for you... Is also a form of weakness. I can see trading down when the value of the players isn't equal to the draft range your current pick is in. But you don't trade down from first round talent and let other teams decide the player for you. Other teams shouldnt decide whether we go Pass Rusher or Coverage player. Other teams shouldnt decide whether we invest in Eli Apple or WJIII. Other teams shouldnt decide whether Ogbah or Dodd is a better edge bender.

    I want our front office to take the right guy, not allow other teams to make that decision for us... especially at the measely reward of another lotto ticket in a weak 3rd or 4th round.

    I mean, i get it... it's fun. My initial reaction was to trade down in a similar scenario. MORE PICKS TO PLAY WITH!!!! But it's a bad strategy.... and one we rarely employ in the 1st round.
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2016
    • Agree Agree x 1
  6. 58stillers

    58stillers

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    Well considering we went DL instead of CB in the 1st..... I would be greatly disappointed if picks 2 & 3 were not CB & Safety. Just my amateur opinion.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  7. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    The thing is, your argument is premised on having a player available (or position) that you clearly value above the others, or that there are a very small number remaining players with first round talent (or just one). In that case, I agree that you make the pick and move on. However, that's often not the case, and in the view of some here that wasn't the case in this mock. By your argument, every team that's ever traded down has done so out of "weakness." To say that trading down in the first is a "bad" strategy on a general basis is silly. Sorry, but I'm going with the viewpoint of the multitude of NFL GMs who have successfully traded down in drafts over yours. There are times when it's the perfect strategy for the circumstances, and it's not just about having more picks to play with. It's about maximizing the return on the draft picks that you start off with.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  8. NY STEELERFAN

    NY STEELERFAN Well-Known Member

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    SE explained it very well and I will add to that as well. I am not allowing other teams to choose our players what I am doing is setting us up for more success in this draft by gaining more picks. All while moving a few spots and with very same(if not the same) talent to choose from. The difference is you have Billings as a top tier guy and most of us here have him as an equal to the players left.

    Now as for the weakness part, I don't get it how does trading back while still getting a player you want and gaining extra picks make you weak? Also are we talking weight lifting or drafting, gaining more picks to increase your odds on getting talent only makes you smart not weak. The draft is a crap shoot anyways so the more chances you have the better your chance to nail a few.....jmo.

    Let's not forget your comment that this is a weak draft class, have you watched Day from ND play, he tore it up at the sr bowl or shine game I get them mixed up but feel free to go back and watch him. Not a bad guy in the 4th and the same thing can be said for a ton of players Davis and Jones as mentioned before. I love it when guys bash a class because they read what the talking heads write(not saying you) and not see for themselves. I will tell you this right now I have watched a lot of CB's and people may totally disagree but Harlan Miller and Frankie Williams are right up there with the best of them and they are all late round gems.
     
  9. Blast Furnace

    Blast Furnace Staff Member Mod Team

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    I think if any of the players that we were voting on is available at 25, Steelers won't be trading any where, they will choose one of them.

    I respectfully disagree with your evaluation of Billings, Elvis, and I think he is high on the Steelers wish list too, especially with MacLendon gone now.

    Steelers aren't big players in trading their first rd picks anyway, almost never happens. If Billings were gone and Apple, Jackson and Alexander were there still, I would be in favor of moving back a couple spots to pick up an extra pick because you'll still get one of those guys.
     
  10. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    Perhaps. Reasonable people can disagree on player evaluations. It happens every draft among the various experts employed by the teams to evaluate talent and make selections. I'd also bet that it happens to a significant extent within the teams themselves.

    I see Billings, Apple, Will Jax and Ogbah as being very similar in grade. They all have tons of upside combined with some really good and bad tape. Billings may be a more immediate contributor because of the position he plays, but the other 3 may be better players in the long run. Just my view, and I've watched a good amount of Billings' games. I could think of worse picks at #25 than Billings, and I won't be worried if we take him in the 1st like I was when we took JJ a few years ago.
     
  11. TerribleTowelFlying

    TerribleTowelFlying Staff Member Site Admin Mod Team

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    Trading back in the first for Steelers fans is like asking the genie for more wishes. It's fun to think about, but it probably isn't going to happen.
     
    • Agree Agree x 3
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  12. SteelCity_NB

    SteelCity_NB Staff Member Mod Team

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    I just don't see the Steelers going after Billings. We play too much big nickel, and Cam and Tuitt aren't coming off the field.

    I have been a proponent of going NT since Big Snack retired. But I look at the defense now and I just don't think it's a big concern for the Steelers the way we play defense now.

    I just can't see how the Steelers ignore issues in our secondary any longer.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  13. RPO IZSB

    RPO IZSB Well-Known Member

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    My argument is based on the fact that teams rate players, placing them in tiers/values/rounds. Teams generally trade down when they don't have someone available in the tier/range they are drafting IN THE FIRST ROUND. Good teams DON'T trade down in the first round when they have multiple players available in that tier of the first round. They trust themselves to make the right player decision, they dont defer to the teams around them

    Again. If Dodd, Ogbah, Apple, and Jackson III are all on the board and all relatively equal in YOUR opinion, and you would trade down 4ish spots to take the one who is remaining, then I think you are really bad at your job. It's your job to determine which one is the best fit for our system, it's your job to determine which position is a priority. You essentially want to punt on your responsibility, and let other GMs decide for you... all so you can get an extra pick to draft Sean Davis in the 3rd round. That might fly in Cleveland, but that's now how we do things in Pitt.

    I understand using draft simulators makes trading down seem more appetizing, "Look, I still got Apple and added these 3rd and 4th rounders!!!" But that's fantasy, not reality.
     
  14. RPO IZSB

    RPO IZSB Well-Known Member

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    Yes, you are. That's exactly what you are doing by trading down in the scenario that has been presented. You don't set yourself up for success by adding mid round picks. You set yourself up for success by scouting Dodd, Ogbah, Apple, Jackson (or whatever collection of 1st round talent you view available at our draft slot), and making the right choice.

    I was at the Shrine game, Sheldon Day wasn't
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2016
  15. RPO IZSB

    RPO IZSB Well-Known Member

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    Cam/Tuitt don't have to come off the field.

    LEO-Dupree
    3Tech-Tuitt
    1Tech-Billings
    5Tech-Heyward

    It's essentially an Under front for our Nickel... and keeps us stout against the run (something we were susceptible to in Nickel).

    We can then also transition in to a run base 4-3 as well, giving Jarvis a role he's actually suited to as a Strong Side LBer (Subbing in for the Nickel back)

    I don't view Billings as a NT. I view him as a hybrid DT, a 3 down DT. He can play 0, 1, and 3 tech. And when we play significant games against pocket passers like Flacco, Brady, Dalton, etc and front line of monsters that can penetrate instead of relying on edge benders is definitely a direction this team is headed.
     
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  16. RPO IZSB

    RPO IZSB Well-Known Member

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    full discosure:
    I traded down in the draft game
    games are fun
     
  17. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    I feel like I'm talking to a wall. I'm typing on my phone, so I'll be brief. I didn't have anyone left with a clear 1st round grade at #25 in our mock. I had a bunch of guys with a borderline 1st/2nd grades that can all fit needs. I also see several value players at positions of need that are projected to be available in later rounds. Somehow you keep twisting it to imply that I would leave a great player on the board to draft 2 marginal players. That's not what I'm saying at all. What I was saying is the draft was falling in a way where I'd rather add a pick than settle on one of those guys at 25 because I felt that the value of the added pick would be greater. You disagree on the evaluation, and that's fine. You could stand to tone down the "I'm smart and everyone who disagrees is dumb" arrogance.
     
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  18. RPO IZSB

    RPO IZSB Well-Known Member

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    By trading down, you've deferred the evaluations of "several players" to other teams to allow them to dictate which of those players falls in your lap, and you did it to acquire middle round talent in a weak draft. Players in the 3rd-4th rounds have a significantly lower success rate then the players in the draft range that you deferred your analysis on. You can tell me all about the players you like in those middle rounds, and you'll be wrong about most of them... and so will our front office.

    It's a bad front office approach, but fun in a game.

    Again, talking about trading down in the first round... not deeper in to the draft. I'm all for trading down later in the draft when we are talking about a 1 out of 10 success rate. Give me more lotto tickets.
     
  19. NY STEELERFAN

    NY STEELERFAN Well-Known Member

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    Really are you kidding me 1st off I did say sr bowl or shrine game, pretty hard to keep it all straight....and good for you for being at the shrine game....did ya watch any of it cause it was full of players who are projected as mind round picks....again like Davis and a kid who had a pretty good game there Allison wr........

    Anyways you can trade down and still end up with the same player you would have nothing says that player won't be there. If I remember right Belicheat and the pats do this.......
     
  20. RPO IZSB

    RPO IZSB Well-Known Member

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    yea, it was full of 5th-UDFA round talent, that will go in the 3rd and 4th round because this draft is weak on talent. Massive overflow of underclassmen declaring in 2014 and 2015, has left this senior class very weak in terms of both top talent and depth at the senior level, which will facilitate "Shrine game level" players getting drafted higher than they normally would. And nearly another 100 underclassmen declared this year, because there is so much room on the 256 board...

    It's an incredibly weak draft class overall.
     
    • Disagree Disagree x 1
  21. gpguy

    gpguy Well-Known Member

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    I'd hoped I wouldn't miss this, but I've been under the weather since Monday (and still am)....definitely an interested result...I called CB all the way on this one...guess we'll see how it pans out in the coming rounds.


    Too funny!
     
  22. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    No, the point is that I'm not deferring the evaluation, I've concluded it and determined that the value isn't there at 25. I'd rather have player A, B or C and the pick instead of havin to take Player A, B or C.
     
  23. Blast Furnace

    Blast Furnace Staff Member Mod Team

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    I find it hard to get excited about 4th rd picks. The deeper into the draft you get, the less likely you are to hit on a prospect, no matter how big the man crush, thats just the way it is. At least for us anyway, going back to 2000, this is whom we have drafted. A few gems in there but not a high percentage.

    Doran Grant
    Martavis Bryant
    Shamarko Thomas
    Landry Jones
    Alameda Ta'amu
    Cortez Allen
    Thaddeus Gibson
    Tony Hills
    Daniel Sepulveda
    Willie Colon
    Orien Harris
    Fred Gibson
    Ike Taylor
    Larry Foote
    Mathias Nkwenti
    Danny Farmer
     
  24. RPO IZSB

    RPO IZSB Well-Known Member

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    You concluded your evaluation without prioritizing team need and without being able to separate the value of those 4 or 5 players by more than a late 3rd or 4th round pick? That doesn't sound like good evaluation to me. I'm not trying to be annoying, so if debating this any further is insulting feel free to tell me to eff off :)

    If you're the GM and you can't decide between CB A and DE A and DT A, and you'd let another GM decide for you, at the return of a 3rd round pick. I think that's poor front office decision making. Now, if you told me you had Apple, Jackson, and Mackenzie all rated equally and were going to trade down a couple spots to address CB, that's a slightly different story.
     
  25. SteelCity_NB

    SteelCity_NB Staff Member Mod Team

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    I have no problem in picking up extra picks in Round 4-6. I think the Steelers track record is pretty good in these rounds. Sure, the percentage isn't high, but when you find a guy like Antonio Brown in round 6, I am willing to give Kevin Colbert as many extra picks as possible.
     
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