To Win the North

This is my first ever post on this forum, but I found a scenario that is interesting. In order for the Steelers to win the North, the Bengals have to lose their remaining games to the Broncos and Ravens, the Steelers have to beat the Ravens and Browns, and they have to beat those teams by a combined score of 30 points. They could do 29 points, and it would go to strength of schedule, and I'm not sure how they rate that. I would think the Steelers have that beat since they played the Patriots and the Bengals did not.

1. Tie-breaker for head-to-head is split
2. Division record would be split (4-2)
3. Record in common games would be split

Bengals lost to Cardinals and would lose to Broncos (in my scenario) and Steelers won those games.

Steelers lost to Chiefs and Seahawks, whereas Bengals beat them. That would make these a wash.

4. Record within conference would be split (8-4)
5. Strength of victory right now puts the Bengals at 155 points and the Steelers at 126 points.

It's a long-shot for the Bengals to lose out, but it would be cool to see a scenario where it would go to the 5th tiebreaker.

Tomlin's strategy for the next two games should be DO NOT LET UP and KEEP SCORING POINTS.
http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

 

I do not see them losing to the Ravens in the last game. Anything is possible I guess.

 

I actually thought the 9'ers had a chance for most of the first half... Maybe the Rats have a shot

I know Denver will demolish them in a must win game at home

 

We know all the crazy what if scenarios, so just be happy if we get a wild card seed.............

 

Is it that crazy? Will be tough for the Ravens to beat them, but it's possible.

 

Are we supposed to be scared of one of the worst secondaries in the NFL and a third rate QB like jimmy clausen, I'm not worried at all...

 

I don't follow. Who's worried?

 

Strength of victory has nothing to do with points scored or win margin.

"Definition: A part of the NFL's tiebreaking proceedure, strength of victory is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponentsa team has beaten."

In all likelihood, we would actually win this tiebreaker, as I believe "our" teams are up 3 wins on "theirs."

 

Strength of Victory doesn't take into points into account.

It measures the records of the teams you've beaten. So in short, since the Steelers and Bengals would have several common wins, the only differences would be the Cards/Colts/Broncos for the Steelers and the Seahawks/Bills/Chiefs.

So right now, the Steelers are +4 (28-24). So the Steelers need a combination of 2 (wins from their teams or loss from the Bengals teams and one of those would be the Broncos beating the Bengals) to lock up the tiebreaker. Because if they get 2 and it ends up tied, the next tiebreaker is strength of schedule and the Steelers already have that one on the backs of the Pats (Steelers) over the Bills (Bengals).

 

Interesting. I was completely ignorant of that. Thanks for clearing that up. I still think it would be interesting to see it come to this tiebreaker.

 

In short the only way the Steelers don't win the North if they end up tied at 11-5 is all of these games have to go as follows:

Buffalo has to win their last two (vs Dallas, vs Jets)
Indy has to lose their last two (@ Miami, vs Tennessee)
Arizona has to lose their last two (vs GB, vs Settle)
Seattle has to win their last two (vs Rams, @ Cards)
Denver has to lose vs SD (Week 17)
KC has to win their last two (vs. Cle, vs Oak)

If any of those games goes any other way, the Steelers win an 11-5 tie with Cincy, either by SOV or SOS (at worst).

The most unlikely need is the Ravens winning at Cincy. The Steeler loss at home vs the Ravens very likely may cost them the North. If they (Steelers) win that game, all they'd need would be 2 wins and a Cincy loss to Denver and one of the above list to go the other way (Buffalo losing to Jets. Indy winning a game, Denver winning at home vs SD).

 

So, we need:
To win out by a combined +28, and the Bengals to lose out.

If they lose out, they'll have a +153 in their best-case scenario, losing both by only 1 point (they currently stand at +155).
We are currently at +126. So, we need to win both games by a combined +28 to get to 154.

IMHO:
We can win out, and do it by +28.
The Bengals can lose easily @ Denver.
I guess this comes down to the Ravens playing their hearts out w17 and playing spoiler.

 

No, points don't matter. Just wins. AZ/Indy/Denver currently have 28 wins. Seattle/Buffalo/KC have 24 wins. The Steelers just need AZ/Indy/Denver to have equal (or more) wins than Seattle/Buffalo/KC at the end of week 17. To be tied at 11-5, Denver has to beat Cincy next week, giving the Steelers trio 29 wins. The most wins Seattle/Buffalo/KC can get to is 30 so the Steelers need 1 more win by Denver/AZ/Indy or 1 loss by Seattle/Buffalo/KC in the last 2 weeks for the Steelers to either win SOV tiebreaker (or have it tied - which pushes it to SOS tiebreaker which the Steelers already have clinched due to the Steelers playing NE and Cincy playing Buffalo).

Points will not matter between the Steelers and Cincy, no matter what happens in the last 2 weeks.

 

The ravens can only really spoil our season though ..The bengals are already in ..If we beat em i'm sure they will just lay down for the bengals ,but either way i look for this upcoming game to be their "super bowl"..Nothing would please them more than to really hamper our playoff chances..