Blast Draft

What's up with the winky face?? I can't tell if that was a dig on Matt Spaeth or a compliment.

Either way, I think Spaeth (eventually) became well worth a 3rd round pick. I'd definitely be happy with a Spaeth in the 4th.

 

I'd be pretty happy with this. I hope it's realistic. I love Senquez in the 3rd. Dude's a baller, hobbit or not.

 

Believe it or not, I was very careful to type "worth A 3rd round pick." Not the 3rd round pick we used. Because you're right, he didn't become a player until year 4. And then he left.

But based on the player he became... the point is if we could get that in the 3rd round (and keep him, and get him going in less than 4 years), it would be good value.

 

I think that's very idealistic. Most 5th/6th rounders don't ever play a meaningful role, if they make the team at all. What you basically said is that a great blocking TE is the equivalent of a guy that statistically probably won't make the team - or if he does, be a special teamer and the type of backup you don't want to see on the field.

Let's have a look at our 5th/6th rounders in Colbert's tenure. I'll highlight all the guys that you could argue were better than Matt Spaeth.

Clark Haggans
Tee Martin
Chris Combes
Jason Gavadza
Chukky Okobi
Rodney Bailey
Roger Knight
Verron Haynes
Lee Mays
Brian St. Pierre
Nathaniel Adibi
Bo Lacy
Matt Kranchick
Drew Caylor
Rian Wallace
Chris Kemoeatu
Omar Jacobs
Charles Davis
Marvin Philip
Cameron Stephenson
William Gay
Dennis Dixon
Mike Humpal
Ryan Mundy
Joe Burnett
Frank Summers
Ra'Shon Harris
Chris Scott
Crezdon Butler
Stevenson Sylvester
Jonathan Dwyer
Antonio Brown
Chris Carter
Keith Williams
Chris Rainey
Terry Hawthorne
Justin Brown
Vince Williams
Shaq Richardson
Wesley Johnson
Jordan Zumwalt
Daniel McCullers

And I would take Spaeth over Kemo, who did far more damage than good. Gay, I feel like is similar to Spaeth. He took even longer to become good. Vince and McCullers have potential to join the list.

That's the reality. We have hope for the guys we draft, but not a lot of them make it. If you land the next Matt Spaeth in the 5th/6th, that's a steal. It's better than appropriate value.

Now let's have a look at Colbert's 3rd rounders:

Kendrick Clancy
Hank Poteat
Chris Hope
Max Starks
Trai Essex
Anthony Smith
Willie Reid
Matt Spaeth
Bruce Davis
Kraig Urbik
Mike Wallace
Keenan Lewis
Emmanuel Sanders
Curtis Brown
Sean Spence
Markus Wheaton
Dri Archer

I'm making reasonable projections for the last three (and cutting Spence some slack). You could make a case for Urbik, I guess. But I count only a handful that are head and shoulders better than Spaeth, and some others that are sort of in the same neighborhood. Starks was a starter, but he had some major suckage. He was all over the place. The bottom line is Matt Spaeth is right in the thick of things there, right around the middle.

I get reaching for the stars. No one wants an ordinary, average successful draft pick, but it's better than one of the two alternatives. I couldn't argue with it. Now, if we were talking 4th round or beyond, there'd be no room for monkey business - you take a guy if you know he's of Spaeth quality.

 

do we have a spot on the PS we desperately need to fill?

 

Steelers please dont draft Ray, we dont need a problem child with a turf toe and 10 mandatory random drug tests a month....

 

Cherry pick much??? You completely missed the point of both lists. Context! You could say, "This CB has speed, height, length, athletic ability, ball skills, cover skills, and character - the only real knock on him is his weight, but he is an aggressive tackler that can be our #3 right away and start by next year" and talking about Curtis Brown. You could say, "This guy is a sure-fire Pro Bowl return man who can be our slot guy right away, and has the speed, moves, and experience to become a dynamic receiver and finally replace Hines Ward" and be talking about Willie Reid.

The point is if I knew he'd be Spaeth - like, could see the future - and if you take away the fact that Spaeth took too many years to get good (and then left) and put him more on a traditional track of struggling as a rookie, being okay in his second year, and being good from year 3 and beyond, and we could keep him long-term for backup money but he'd still see a LOT of the field and have a significant impact... I'd consider it a good pick. And after looking at the failure rate, I don't see how you could disagree. I'm not advocating drafting a guy whose best-case-scenario is a mimicking of Spaeth's unusual career, and at the same time could still fail completely like most of the guys I listed.

Best 15 minutes I ever spent.