Is RB market making a comeback

This market is the one Le'Veon Bell's agent was trying to set. Henry is really the only pure runner at or above 15 million. If you have the elite skillset to be that homerun hitter and can win on all three downs... then you're worth the money.

 

Its a lot for a RB... but I'd pay him that in a heart beat. He's RB1 in the league IMO

 

I think its just dollar devaluation.

everything is looking more expensive, from food to homes to NFL player salaries but its just the dollar losing its value

 

well. I am comparing the first 2 contracts from a decade ago to the one’s signed last week.

Include inflation, % of the cap, etc..

getting a higher AAV on a shorter contract with more guaranteed money is always a better value.

 

So you inflated the contracts from a decade ago the same %age as the cap went up?

From what Hackjam posted earlier re: Gurley contract, the AAV should be the same if you are talking about the old contract in 2026 cap dollars and not whatever year that contract was from cap dollars.

I do think there is a general trend toward more guarantees in NFL contracts over time as well. I think this trend will keep going this way.

But I don't think they'll ever have fully guaranteed contracts. Or at least if they do, it will completely change how GMs manage the cap in the NFL.

 

No, I’m pointing out shorter contracts with more fully guaranteed money.

 

Vs very old contracts?

It would be silly to compare Matt Stafford's new contract to Troy Aikman's last deal, right? The economics of the league changed.

 

Bijan Robinson can have good argument too but I agree Gibbs is amazing too!

 

There were a couple thing that rocked the RB market that it is just now recovering from.

Adrian Peterson and Johnson I wanna say (Tenn RB) both signed huge 15M per deals at the same basic time. On those deals, AP blew a knee and lost a season to suspension for child abuse, even with a 2k season in there, Minny lost big on that deal. Tennessee, handed out the money and the guy was seemingly out of football in 2 years and was never the same after signing the deal.

The next blow was Denver seemingly able to pull guys from anywhere, stick them in and be very successful, which led to years of RB's are a dime a dozen and you can find them everywhere, you just need the proper scheme and execution. To this day, some people are still against taking RB's in the first round in principal because of this.

Another thing is that, at least a few years ago, the average NFL career was 4 years. For RB's it was 3. They typically don't take the pounding and last in the grand scheme. Again, we all know guys who've been around a good while, but it's the conventional thinking for a lot of people.

As for robinson, i'm not sure atlanta has anyone making more money than that do they? qb's on a rookie deal, not sure they have a WR over that, etc. They'll have other problems if they opt to extend Penix as the qb rate by then could very well be 70+. Remember, it's he who gets paid last that get's paid most.

 

I’m using the contracts for Bell and Gurley vs this years contracts since those were the one’s that were pointed out.

Another point is the Gibbs, Bijon and Love contracts were all signed in the same year which is rare for RB’s. You don’t usually see guaranteed contracts this size in the same year for this position. These newer contracts you have a much better chance of hitting your incentives on a shorter contract.

Lastly, comparing Barkley and Love’s fully guaranteed contracts adjusted for inflation, Love’s is 13% higher even though Barkley was drafted 2nd and Love 3rd.

 

Tomlin definitely botched the handling of Blount, increasingly freezing him out of the offense as Bell developed into a star, but you are forgetting a few things.

One is that the Patriots clearly tampered with Blount. They wanted him back and took advantage of his frustration in Pittsburgh. Blount knew exactly what he was doing when he left that game against the Titans early. Instead of suspending him or fining him for his behavior, they rewarded it. This was the beginning of Tomlin's habit of hurting the team by giving away talent. If the Steelers didn't want to play him after what he did, bench him. Suspend him. Do anything but reward his poor behavior and hand him to the Patriots, which was incredibly stupid. That said, it was the Ravens they lost to in the playoffs that year. With Bell hurt, it was Josh Harris and Ben Tate they turned to ar running back, with predictably lousy results.

The playoff loss to the Patriots came two years later in 2016. That was after Blount's contract would have been up, and there is no way he would have stayed that long as Bell's caddy. The Steelers cut Blount in 2014. Williams joined the team in 2015 and played extremely well, but counting on him again at age 33 in 2016 was a mistake. It's just a separate mistake from cutting Blount, who would have been gone by 2016 no matter what the Steelers did because they were never going to give him anything close to an even split of the work with Bell at that point.

 

I found this article that has a nice break down in the difference between these 2 and day 2 and day 3 picks.

here is an excerpt: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/why-bijan-robinson-and-jahmyr-gibbs-are-worth-paying/

Replacing an RB isn't the same as replacing Bijan or Jahmyr

Because replacing Robinson or Gibbs isn't about finding somebody who can average 4.5 yards per carry. It's about replacing everything else that comes with it.

Robinson's 2025 season is the best example. He finished with 2,298 yards from scrimmage, but we wanted to know how difficult it would be to replicate his entire profile. So we looked at 508 NFL running back seasons from 2015-25 with at least 100 carries and compared rushing yards, receiving yards, yards after contact per attempt and yards per route run.

Only eight of those 508 seasons reached even 70% of Robinson's production in all four categories. At an 80% threshold, there were two: Saquon Barkley in 2018 and Robinson himself in 2025. At 90%, there was only Robinson.

That's the distinction that gets lost when we talk about replacing a running back; we're not asking whether Atlanta can find somebody capable of rushing for 1,000 yards. We're asking whether it can find someone who can approximate Robinson's rushing volume, receiving value, tackle-breaking ability, and receiving efficiency simultaneously. And across more than a decade of NFL running back seasons, almost nobody has.

Gibbs isn't quite the singular statistical phenomenon, but he's still operating in elite company. Just 3.1% of those 508 seasons reached 80% of his 2025 production across the same four categories, and 1.4% reached 90%. His value also extends well beyond rushing production; his 2025 route grade ranked in the 98th percentile of the qualifying RB seasons.

 

They were pointed out as cap%.

Just looking at the raw numbers is silly. Just like the comparison between Stafford and Aikman.

As I said before, the league is moving to more guarantees in general.

I'm sure you will find that Stafford also has significantly more guaranteed money vs. Aikman.

If you want to make a comparison between RBs and other positions here, you probably would want to see how fast guaranteed money is increasing in other positions. Like cap%, my guess is that it's grown fastest (on offense) for QBs, WRs, and probably OTs (the people who affect the passing game the most).

As stated in the previous post: the economics of the league are changing.

Finally, why are you comparing Barkley to Love? If your point is that the rules changes in the league favor passing more than running, so cap% of QBs and WRs has increased when RBs have probably fallen since Bettis was in his prime, but stayed about constant since Gurley. Everyone is going to agree with that. I think I said the exact same thing when responding to you earlier in the thread.

 

Do you not see why?

It's becuase you're comparing contracts that are separated in time by a decade without any thought to (1) cap inflation or (2) changes in the league economics that are pressuring teams to give everyone more guaranteed money.

Of course any player would rather take a 2026 contract over a 2016 contract. This is true for very good players. And I'd be shocked if that didn't run all the way down to guys on the practice squad.

I'm not sure if you're using the contract that Bell turned down (foolishly IMO), or the one he signed with the Jets.

Either way, that was a very long time ago. Comparing raw numbers between the two is silly.

So I went to an even sillier comparison between Stafford and Aikman. I didn't look up Aikman's contract. But I think we'll all find that the AAV is much, much lower than Stafford (wouldn't be surprised if one of Stafford's seasons is Aikman's entire contract). And I think we'll also find that there is zero fully guaranteed money for Aikman (outside of a signing bonus that looks like pocket change in today's NFL).

But all that means is that the NFL has had massive growth and the CBA requires that (more than?) 50% of revenues go to players via contracts. So the contracts explode in value over time. Especially when looking over long period of time (like a decade, or 3-4 in the case of Aikman...too lazy to look it up).