Is RB market making a comeback

Possible but this is still far behind several position like the wide receiver,where the highest paid player make 40-41 millions per year

 

I mean when you are responsible for almost half the yards on your team you are gonna get paid. I don't see Warren or Dowdle racking up those kinds of yards unless the Steeler WR are just complete junk.

 

?!


I thought this was discussed two to three off-seasons ago nationally?! For that matter, I thought the drafting of Bijan Robinson himself signaled the return of the position as a whole?! Regardless, to answer the question, the position is making a comeback but not quite in the way people think.


Bijan is the quintessential three down feature back. No denying that. That said, people need to understand that merely running and catching passes will not equate towards such a contract. The running back position is making a comeback for the position itself is a lot less the classic two point stance player in the backfield and a lot more of the Offensive Personnel Weapon teams want to deploy.



Pittsburgh experimented with such a player a fee years back; Jalen Samuels. Coming out of NC State, Samuels was a lot less Running Back and a lot more OPW. Main issue with him stemmed from both a severe lack of overall athleticism (namely in the lateral mobility domain) along with a severe lack of consistency.

 

If you have an elite back who does damage as a runner and receiver that market for him is high.

 

I'd like to see what these numbers are as cap% in year signed.

My initial guess was that Robinson was at best keeping pace with cap inflation here.

2026 cap: $301.2/team
2025 cap: $279.2/team

%age increase from 2025 to 2026 = 7.9%

Barkley signed his contract in 2025.

$20.6 x 1.079 = $22.22MM

This is basically what Robinson's contract is.

So it looks like the RB market stayed basically the same. Robinson's up ~ $30k vs. expected cap inflation.

And he's (24 years ols) much younger than Barkley (28 when signed) was when he signed. So maybe this is a little lower than the expected value for him based solely on cap inflation?

But this is only looking at the AAVs in the tweet. The structure of the deals are probably important than the AAV, especially for RBs.

 

I think I'd generally rather have 2x guys at $10MM than 1x guy at $20mm. But maybe I'm biased after seeing all the years we had to play below average guys in the playoffs after Bell got hurt.

There are only 13 RBs with an AAV > $10MM currently.

I actually think we're even better than 2x guys at $10mm right now.

Warren and Dowdle are both ~ $6mm. They're both guys who can give you ~1200 yards from scrimmage (hopefully both 1k in the same year!). And if one gets hurt, you still have the other one.

 

The last Bell offer was approx $14MM/season against a $177.2MM cap at signing. That's just shy of 8% of the cap. Gurley's was $14.375MM (roughly 8.1%) against that same cap.

Bijan's is $25MM against a $301.2MM cap or roughly 8.3% of the cap.

Even Tomlinson's first extension back in '04 was $8MM/yr against a roughly $80MM cap.
Peterson's first extension was $14.2 against $120.375MM, just shy of 12%.

Here's a good look at it https://overthecap.com/contract-history/running-back

 

Only reason why you might feel that is the NFL has its worst crop of QBs in decades. Who’s really elite at the QB position right now in the NFL? Mahomes, Stafford, Josh Allen? Is Josh elite? I don’t think so. Hurts isn’t. Jackson isn’t. It’s one guy and he’s playing on a bum knee. And the other is in the twilight of his career.

QB quality has turned into the NBA’s parody sewer. Anyone can win a Super Bowl. Even Sam Darnold.