Rookie class all signed.

The shrimp is available for the QB room. Didn't even make it to TC:

“The #Ravens have waived former #Vanderbilt star QB Diego Pavia prior to training camp,” the insider reported this week.

 

When the Ravens noticed that the ball boy was 3 inches taller than Pavia that probably sealed the deal.

 

He didn’t help himself off the field either, throwing money around like a pimp in Las Vegas.

Looked like he was just too small-time for the NFL

 

Well played Joel.

 

mccarthy had to totally break him down and re-teach him how to hold the pen to sign. i heard that was the holdup. i saw that somewhere on the interweb.

 

I think it's about the order they got drafted in.

QB's are "special". They can't get more money because the money is determined by the CBA.

So I think rookie contract negotiations are all about how much is guaranteed.

I didn't read about the terms of his deal yet, but I think he was waiting for Beck (QB drafted before him) to sign. Hoping that he'd get a bunch of guarantees. Then he could ask for something less than Beck, but more than what someone usually gets at his draft position (because QBs are special). It may have also been the Steelers waiting too. Because whatever Beck's guarantees were would be the absolute ceiling the Steelers would do.

Like I said, I didn't look at the terms yet. But my guess is that he didn't gain much / anything by waiting. But since there was no real benefit for him signing before camp, he lost nothing by waiting.

IIRC, this is also why Porter took a bit to sign his rookie deal. I think at the time the amount of guarantees you got were different if you were drafted in the 1st or the 2nd (this might still be the case). But he was a crazy edge case because he was drafted in the 2nd round at 32 over all.

Technically it's the second round, but I think his team was arguing for the same that the 32nd pick go the year before.

My understanding is that the "front" where these guarantees are paid out gets pushed back a little every year (so more guys are getting more guaranteed money). So each year, if you're earlier than the front the deal is easy. And if you're well after the front the deal is easy. But if you're close to the front, the team and the payer might both be looking for other guys to sign first as a signal for what they should get / give.

 

He had me with the hat.

 

Yeah no kidding. He also hurt his draft stock with his mouth and he might be a partyboy type. God knows what the background investigations at Vandy came up with. But that said I like my QBs cocky and scrappy as that type of leadership leaks into the team. Having a guy like him coming off the bench might be entertaining for the faithful in Baltimore. Hopefully entertaining in a bad way, but I'm not gonna bet against him being able to carve out a backup role at this level.

 

It is by the order they are drafted including guaranteed money they get slotted

Allar gained or lost nothing other than he would have received his check 3 months sooner and if invested at say 7% annually he actually lost about $26,000

Ditto Porter

Rookies should sign as fast as they can

This may help

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/draft/_/year/2026

Porters agent tried to argue he should be compensated as a first because he was taken 32nd and wanted the Steelers to set a precedent (if they even could)

 

Contract value is set by the CBA. Amount of guaranteed money isn't (at least that's my understanding).

The link you have here appears to be the contracts that were actually signed by rookies from this draft. I think we can see that guarantees aren't prescribed from the CBA by looking at previous years and comparing them to the current year. Unless the CBA also prescribes how the guarantees increase over time...in which case everyone would sign immediately (which doesn't happen).

If we look at this link (and the same link from previous years by replacing 2026 with 202X) we can see the "front" I was talking about in the post you quoted.

• From your link: In 2026 2nd rounders received 100% guaranteed contracts up until pick 48. Then it starts to drop off
• In 2025 2nd rounders received 100% guaranteed contracts up until pick 40 https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/draft/_/year/2025
  
• In 2024 zero 2nd rounders received 100% guaranteed contracts. Pick 33 recieved 95.7% guaranteed https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/draft/_/year/2024
• In 2023 spotrack stops telling us the %age of guaranteed money guys got. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/draft/_/year/2024

Spotrack doesn't give us the data, but I think it's safe to assume that that Porter (as the 32nd pick) secured a bigger bump in guaranteed money vs. the 2022 contract at 2.1 than the bump the guy in the previous year got.

From the data in the link you provided (and the ones from previous years) this we can also assume that 2nd rounders up to pick 48 will all sign very quickly because they all know the value of the contracts and they will all be fully guaranteed.

Whoever was picked 50th will wait until the guy at 49 signs to see if he gets a 100% guaranteed contract. Given the trend above, I think it's almost certain he does. When he signs, then the guy at 50 will sign (probably also fully guaranteed).

We see the "line" has moved 8 spots in each of the last two years. So those first few contracts after 48 are probably no brainers to get 100% guaranteed contracts.

But what about when we get to around 55? Those guys around 55-58 will be pretty reluctant to sign before the guys before them sign.

Once the line hits the end of the 2nd round, then there will probably be some difficulty signing the guy at 3.1. Because it will probably be a bigger negotiation to get that guy to 100% guarantees.

It will be interesting to see how this gets updated once Beck's contract comes in. On your link, they don't have a guaranteed% yet. They know the value of the contract because it's perscribed by the CBA but (when I'm writing this), they don't have the guaranteed yet.

• 2026 - 3.1 Carson Beck (??%)..........3.2 (24.8%)....3.12=76 Allar (??%)
• 2025 - 3.1 Darius Alexander (23%)...3.2 (22.9%)....3.12=76 Revel (21.1%)
• 2024 - 3.1 Malachi Corley (20.4%)....3.2 (20.2%)....3.12=76 Elliss (18.6%)

We see that

1. The jump from 2024 - 2025 was about 2.6% for both 3.1 and 3.2.
2. The jump from 2025 - 2026 was 1.9% for 3.2.

My guess is that Beck (who is a QB that waited as long as he could to sign) will be bigger than the bump the guy at 3.2 got because (1) he's a QB and (2) he waited.

We'll see when they update the numbers.

For Allar at 3.12, he was waiting for Beck because if Beck gets a bigger bump in guarantees than other guys around him because he's a QB Allar will also be looking for a bigger bump because he's also a QB.

Let's say that Beck gets a 4% increase in guarantees instead of the ~ 2% for the guy behind him. Then Allar will say "he got that extra bump because he's a QB. I should also get that extra QB bump". So he'll try to get more guarantees too.

At least this is my understanding of how the NFL is currently negotiating rookie deals. It's what I tried to describe in the post you quoted. I appreciate having the data from the link you provided. I think it supports the idea I was trying to describe.

Thanks!

 

Good for him.