What are Reasonable Expectations for Mike McCarthy in year one with the Steelers?

You have so many for Cowher and Ben that's for sure .

 

They don't need excuse... Their resume speaks for itself, especially when Cowher and Ben were together!

 

So he says it's all on the quarterback, except when the team wins. Then the quarterback has nothing to do with it and the masterful planning and leadership of his hero made all the difference.

 

He's keeping that laser-like focus on what's important to him.

 

I love how this guy has no problem insulting any great Steelers player if he thinks it helps make a point. Treats them like dirt.

He must worship at the foot of his favorite coach's statue all day.

 

We'll never know for sure.

When you go back and watch NFL videos of how hard those big losses were on Cowher and how he always shared them with the women in his life, and how much of a relief it was and the exhilaration of the moment when he finally won a Super Bowl, it really felt like the culmination of a life's work to me. I know he coached one more year, but that's the feeling I get when I really look back on things. That Cowher felt that he had done enough that he was satisfied with his body of work, and he had other things to attend to in his life.

Just my humble opinion.

 

Dont worry, you are too old for the draft.

 

Which would be this guy

 

That’s why I read the next mornings paper

 

The draft may be coming back

 

As is the Steeler record for playoff scoring.

Ben could literally HAND OF THE BALL to the Jaguar defense to run in for 2 touchdowns and we should win the game scoring as we did.

If we just have a defense ready to not have THE WORST POSTSEASON DEFENSE IN FRANCHISE HISTORY, we win the game.

The next season we Ben had 2 picks, a huge deficit TO THESE SAME JAGUARS and it took 20 points to win the game.

 

You shall not pass!

 

Of course it is, it's in Pittsburgh

 

But when you turn the ball over and it results in a 14 point swing IN YOUR FAVOR you have been gifted the opportunity to make that game winning score by your defense.

If the same thing happened following Bens Jax pick it is an entirely different game. Rather than a negative the exact same QB event had an entirely different result. THAT IS MY POINT.



I think the entire offense got us buried too deep against the Browns absolutely. But 2 turnovers is a different deal than four. Not that complicated.



I have never defended the Browns game.
Of course quantity matters. Or else YOU would not think Bens Card game was any good as he had a turnover too. Did that turnover nullify Bens performance? Of course not.

There is a big difference in the two. Ben has multiple playoff wins with 2 turnovers. Even with a DTD.


I actually know exactly what you are saying as we have gone round.and round on this for years

Our disagreement lies in your contending that Ben is MORE responsible for the loss than the defense. In my view it is not even close that this falls most at the feet of the defense. Proof?

While Ben has MANY wins with 2 turnovers, including in the playoffs how many does he have when we give up 35? Certainly has never happened in a playoff game.

Final question.

We are on a crazy playoff drought.

If I could project our Bens stat line in our next playoff game including the turnovers would you take it or would you choose the our Jax defensive ineptitude over it.

You can only choose one.[/QUOTE]

I strongly agree with you about that defensive play in the Cardinals game. Check my avatar picture. Ben's pass gets more press because of how dramatic it was at the end of the game (and how perfect the pass and catch were). But that defensive play was beautiful. I loved hearing LeBeau describe it (I think one of the times he was interviewed on the Terrible Podcast?). But I always love listening to LeBeau interviews. So easy to see why his players loved him.

I think Ben matters more than the D because Ben was more important than the D. That's the cross that franchise QBs bear. They get the credit in the wins. And the blame in the losses (especially when the points they score for the other team are more than the margin of victory). Our defense (horrible as it was) allowed fewer points than the points scored (for our team) by the offense. You're supposed to win when that happens.

And just looking at the box score neglects the fact that sequence of returns matters (just like in investing).

I assume you've seen this before too (because as you've said, we've had this conversation before), but 2 turnovers (not including turnover differential) is enough to reduce win% below 50%. I'd imagine that it's much, much worse when one of those turnovers is a score for the opposing defense.
https://www.ganggreennation.com/201...-tremendous-value-of-ball-security-in-the-nfl



Note: that this was only every game in one season (2017). I can't find more up to date data. But since it's a complete season (256 games), I'd imagine that it's fairly representative of the "true" numbers. As stated above, it's pretty obvious that when one of your 2 turnovers is a DTD the other way you're win% is going to be much lower than 40.7%.

The thing that isn't complicated is that you lose almost every time you give up a DTD. So when you're the player that gives up the DTD, when you lose you're a massive part of the loss. Here's an article that says that DTDs give you an 86% chance of winning (that's a 14% chance of winning when you give one up). I'm sure that this number varies season to season. I'm sure it's always very high.

Because it's not 100%, you can find outliers (as you have done). This doesn't mean that the DTD is the most important play of the game.

If the only thing you knew about a game was that team A scored a DTD, you'd be able to guess they won with a higher degree of accuracy than knowing the result of any other play in the game. My guess is that the correlation between DTDs and winning is better than winning (turnovers + explosive plays), which I think is the best correlation in most cases (because most games don't have DTDs*)

Same as what I was saying about PFF above. Consistency throughout the game is important. But it's the big plays that determine the outcome of football games (which is why there is such a massive focus on generating explosive plays in today's NFL...by every team but the Tomlin-led Steelers it seems). And I'm pretty sure there just isn't a more impactful play in the NFL than a DTD (maybe a kick return...but that's scoring on your own possession, so my guess is that it isn't as impactful).

* I think an interesting trivia question about Tomlin would be to see if any other HC with more than 5 or so playoff games had more total DTDs / game (for and against). We got a bunch of DTDs in the playoffs.

 

2018 season Ben throws 2 picks, we are behind 16 zero, and we won the game THE NEXT SEASON VERSUS THE SAME JAGS TEAM.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201811180jax.htm

 

I strongly agree with you about that defensive play in the Cardinals game. Check my avatar picture. Ben's pass gets more press because of how dramatic it was at the end of the game (and how perfect the pass and catch were). But that defensive play was beautiful. I loved hearing LeBeau describe it (I think one of the times he was interviewed on the Terrible Podcast?). But I always love listening to LeBeau interviews. So easy to see why his players loved him.

I think Ben matters more than the D because Ben was more important than the D. That's the cross that franchise QBs bear. They get the credit in the wins. And the blame in the losses (especially when the points they score for the other team are more than the margin of victory). Our defense (horrible as it was) allowed fewer points than the points scored (for our team) by the offense. You're supposed to win when that happens.

And just looking at the box score neglects the fact that sequence of returns matters (just like in investing).

I assume you've seen this before too (because as you've said, we've had this conversation before), but 2 turnovers (not including turnover differential) is enough to reduce win% below 50%. I'd imagine that it's much, much worse when one of those turnovers is a score for the opposing defense.
https://www.ganggreennation.com/201...-tremendous-value-of-ball-security-in-the-nfl



Note: that this was only every game in one season (2017). I can't find more up to date data. But since it's a complete season (256 games), I'd imagine that it's fairly representative of the "true" numbers. As stated above, it's pretty obvious that when one of your 2 turnovers is a DTD the other way you're win% is going to be much lower than 40.7%.

The thing that isn't complicated is that you lose almost every time you give up a DTD. So when you're the player that gives up the DTD, when you lose you're a massive part of the loss. Here's an article that says that DTDs give you an 86% chance of winning (that's a 14% chance of winning when you give one up). I'm sure that this number varies season to season. I'm sure it's always very high.

Because it's not 100%, you can find outliers (as you have done). This doesn't mean that the DTD is the most important play of the game.

If the only thing you knew about a game was that team A scored a DTD, you'd be able to guess they won with a higher degree of accuracy than knowing the result of any other play in the game. My guess is that the correlation between DTDs and winning is better than winning (turnovers + explosive plays), which I think is the best correlation in most cases (because most games don't have DTDs*)

Same as what I was saying about PFF above. Consistency throughout the game is important. But it's the big plays that determine the outcome of football games (which is why there is such a massive focus on generating explosive plays in today's NFL...by every team but the Tomlin-led Steelers it seems). And I'm pretty sure there just isn't a more impactful play in the NFL than a DTD (maybe a kick return...but that's scoring on your own possession, so my guess is that it isn't as impactful).

* I think an interesting trivia question about Tomlin would be to see if any other HC with more than 5 or so playoff games had more total DTDs / game (for and against). We got a bunch of DTDs in the playoffs.[/QUOTE]

If you include his role as secondary coach as it directly relates to interceptions Tomlins teams have created more postseason scores than most NFL FRANCHISES.

 

Not to be a party pooper.... but Steelers went on to lose the next 3 games after beating JAX and it killed any chances of making the post season in 2018. One of these epic Popcorn losses was to none other than the Raiders who ended up 4-12 on the season.

 

The point is.... Steelers did not beat the Jaguars when it really mattered the year prior in the f**king playoffs, and when they finally did.... it didn't matter, because they went on to lose to AFC bottom dwellers, thanks to Popcorn's excellent preparation.

 

I had a different one in mind

Less fun

Somewhere in my house I still have my draft card

 

It really is remarkable.

And I think as a HC, we had even more DTDs against that we did for. Which is why I think he has to be very high on the DTDs / game in the playoffs for people with some qualifying number of games.

I worked it out on here somewhere....I think it was maybe something on the order of 1 DTD for every 2 playoffs games.

As you've stated elsewhere, prior to that game there was a focus from coaching for players not to be content ending the play on the pick. Working your ass off to block was something that was explicitly focused on before that SB.

In the interview I saw, LeBeau said there were something like 10 blocks made after the pick. And 9 guys threw a block on the return (Harrison obviously didn't throw a block, but someone had 2). And you could tell that it was the team effort that he was most proud of.

It's a historic play.

And if I were able to vote (again...clearly biased), I'd put Harrison in the Hall for this play + his short lived but consistent dominance as the premier edge rusher in the league. I don't think he'll make it because his career was too short / doesn't have enough total sacks.

But if the bar is "you can't tell the story of the league without talking about this guy"...(1) that might be the best defensive play in a SB and (2) he was consistently dominant (but for a short time).

 

That wasn't the same Jags team they had a losing record and finished in last place in their division.