Two-year extension for Jaylen Warren

You are more optimistic on the offense than I am. I think the names and faces will change, but I think it will be similar results. I think a low number of plays. MM in GB salad days faced a lot of the same run/pass criticques that Andy Reid did/does....where he can just forget about running the ball.

Now MM in GB had MVP caliber Rodgers....so maybe he adjusts?

I think there is just so much uncertainty around the offense. I have no idea what to expect. Like if the 2026 Steelers are an effective running team, I will be pleasantly surprised.

 

Given the results of this team over the last 5 years or so, it's really hard to argue against the bolded part IMO.

I'm just hoping that we aren't as terrible at getting off the field as we were last year.

Offenses converted 37.44% 3rd downs against us in 2024 (11th). In 2025, they converted 43.03% (26th)!
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-third-down-conversion-pct

Hoping that reversion to the mean kicks in there and we get more chances on offense.

Not that the offense will be great or anything. But we did get to around average PPG (I think). Getting to average number of plays would be nice this year.

 

The offense needs to convert third downs. The were bottom third or so doing that. Not to totally absolve the defense....but the offense didn't do a great job of staying out there all by themselves.

 

This. If You want your D to get off the field faster, how about don't keep putting them out there for most of the game because the offense can't do d!<k.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see an even split of the snaps, with Dowdle taking more on first and second down and Warren out there on third and more than one.

 

We were 15th in converting 3rd downs on offense in 2025 (40%, right ahead of Seattle). We were also 2nd to last in defensive plays.

The problem was that we were 29th in time of possession and 28th in offensive plays. This probably has more to do with our poor 3rd down defense (26th) and poor overall defensive plays (31st) than our average 3rd down offense (15th). Both could stand to get better. However, our overall possessions hurt us the most. If we find a way to be average or better on 3rd down and those offensive plays go up (assuming we stay a middle of the road sustaining offense).

 

I only looked at this: https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversions-per-game

Which had them lower in # of third down conversions. But that could be skewed by the struggles of the D to get off the field.

They did punt a lot however, so I am not totally willing to let the offense off the hook: https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/punt-attempts-per-game

I am sure someone smarter than me can figure out what the variation between all the numbers reveals.

 

I think this is where we'll end up too.

I think you're right about their style.

I don't know about Dowdle's pass pro, but we know that Warren is very good at that (pushed Najee out of that role and he was good at it too).

 

Offense wasn't great on 3rd either.

It was basically the same (but a little worse) than last year. 2025: 38.39%. 2024: 39.95%.
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct

Rank was 20th.

In addition to ranking, it's also worth looking how far away from "average" we were.

Median offensive conversion rate was ~ 39.6%.

So while we were ranked 20th (just outside of the bottom 3rd, but close enough), the spread between that and the median wasn't much (~1.4%). So we were on the cusp of the "bottom 3rd", but also not that far from "average" (because there are a lot of teams clustered around the average).

The median in the defensive link above was ~39.6% (makes sense...same on offense and defense). The D (ranked 26) was about 3x further away from the mean than the O was.

I agree that the O wasn't great at staying on the field, but the D was worse at getting of it. Which felt like a big change from previous years when watching the games IMO.

Upthread, I'm pretty sure I also found the average number of 3rd downs a team faces to see what the approximate difference in actual conversions was on both sides...but it's worth noting that we had far fewer than average offensive plays (so likely fewer than average 3rd downs)...and probably more than average defensive 3rd downs.

I also think the O just "felt" better than previous years because I think we were much better in the red zone / getting TDs (didn't look up the data though). I don't think Rodgers was great, but I think he's head and shoulders the best QB we've had since Ben retired (bar is very low)...maybe even since Ben's injury.

 

To try and torture some more analogies....the 2024-25 Steelers just felt like a baseball starter that you know isn't very good...but is racking up wins. Like all the underlying numbers are bad....but he is still winning.

I am not sure what the underlying numbers are that support that....but that was the feeling I just couldn't shake watching the team play.

I have no idea what to think about the 2026 Steelers. Like on paper, it is difficult to find fault with a single on of the off-season moves so far. But I still can't shake that none of it really matters. It all ends up the same place.

Also....I don't think the numbers back this up....but the 2025 Steelers offense just felt like a great deal of 4-6 play drives and then punt.

 

He certainly did more than just 3rd downs, but if we read "3rd downs" as "passing situations", I think that's closer to what he was in 2023.

In 2024, Najee got worse IMO and it felt more like "mostly even but Najee if we need to protect the ball and Warren if we need someone to make a play".

 

Since Ben got hurt really.

And there were several places even beating this drum when we were 11-0 before Ben's injury.

The system we played made it so we were really good at winning ugly games against teams that were "better" than us IMO.

 

Looking at AR's numbers he's been the same QB since his last year in GB. Actually it's pretty remarkable, excluding his injured season. That's three different offensive systems.
We are looking at 500 and a half attempts, <4000 yards, and about 5% TD rate.

 

I

I'm not saying that offense was great, but the defense was a good bit worse than the offense was on third down. They go together (if we were better on offense, we might've had less defensive plays too), but when you're bottom 5 in conversion and total plays defensively... it shows where the main struggle was. I hope we improve both.