Intermediate Passes Correlate to Success

Carson Beck



Quarterbacks with Beck’s 2025 statistical profile:

• Overall accuracy: ~72%
• YPA: ~8.1
• Low sack rate
• High EPA per dropback (inferred from scoring efficiency)
• Timing‑based, rhythm passer

Comparable college QBs with similar profiles typically post:

QB Type Intermediate Accuracy

1. High‑accuracy rhythm passers 68–75%
2. Strong arms but inconsistent mechanics 55–65%
3. Elite processors (Burrow, Stroud in college) 72–78%

Beck fits the first category.

 

This is why the Steeler should not put too much stock into Howard. The man played with very good WR's in college. We should have selected Dart when we had the chance....

A player I liked in last draft over Howard was McCord who flashed a fast release and did it with grade " C " Wr's and threw for lots of yards. I thought he had a good arm too.


If you are intested, check out my thread on how I judge QB's.


http://thesteelersfans.com/forums/threads/how-i-judge-draft-eligible-qbs.35745/

 

The first QB in for a visit to the South Side on Tuesday the 17th. Also was interviewed at the combine. Cornerback Chris Johnson was on the visit as well from San Diego State.

 

I can't get on board with Carson Beck. Please just-say-no.

 

If you’re drafting Beck to be the next long term starter - barf. If you’re drafting Beck to be the next Mason Rudolph - sure.

 

Bubba, do you have the raw data here?

Might be interesting to see what the change in accuracy from NCAA to NFL looks like for these guys.

Do you know what the line is? I originally thought it was going to be just a "45" where the NFL and college numbers were the same. So we could see that very few QBs improve accuracy when they get to the NFL.

If it's a linear fit, I'm not sure if there's any value from it. The data is all over the place, so the error in the slope would be pretty big IMO.

If anyone wants to do it (I don't...so I guess no one does), webplotdigitizer can be used to pull data from charts (but it's manual). There may be other ways that are easier. Will be nice when someone AI's this too.

 

This is when I really miss Football Outsiders. Some of their stats could get tedious but they had two that were fun when discussing QBs. Their QBase model was really interesting in seeing how it projected draft QBs each year. And they had they had a stat named after Alex Smith tracking how frequently a QB threw short of the sticks on 3rd and 4th downs.

Both touch on things that are under discussion on this board currently. But from what I can see, some crappy nonsense company bought out the site and drove it into the ground.

 

Starters and Kenny Pickett. Hope old is this?

 

How many intermediate passes did each qb throw in the nfl and college?

 

SO old, in fact, that it's college stats!

 

Don't have data. It was posted by SIS. btw, if you are interested they are hiring;

Hiring Sports Data Collectors : r/jobbit

(pay; "TBD"...)

 

KFP hand size

 

Ben's no helmet duh

 

Beck imo is "his brand" mindset could be wrong. experts know best. I wouldn't be against it. late of course
I like CJ from SDS

 

Pretty interesting.

If pay was high enough (probably won't be), I'd check it out. Probably not the worst side hustle.

Except I'd try to analyze the data using actual statistics. And they probably wouldn't like the conclusion that "you can't really tell anything from the data we have because the spread is too wide".

 

Just pointing out it was from when KP was considered an NFL starter, so at best 5yrs.

 

Maybe I'm just not seeing it the way you are, and I'm not saying there isn't a correlation, I'm saying it's looks kinda iffy to me. You do happen to find some interesting stuff to show, and I appreciate that, so don't take what I say as unkind, because I don't mean it that way my friend.

 

LoL

 

This was something I also was looking for.

 

NFL QBs that lived in the intermediate zone (11-20 yds) in 2025

(*min. 100 attempts)



Notice QBs who's name begins with "C"....

 

No worries. I get it. If it really was the secret formula how boring would it make the draft each season? Pull out the spreadsheet, sort the column, draft away. Not much fun.

It's a conversation point at a really boring time of the season. April 23rd can't get here fast enough.

 

Closest one to this is Josh Allen IMO.