McCarthy vs Tomlin Drafts

I think GB was running a 34 when they beat us in the SB. But I'm not sure either.

"Base" defenses are sub packages now, but that was probably less true early in the dataset for both of these guys.

 

We know that Tomlin and the GM were on equal footing, and Rooney had final say. Likely impossible to say who was most influential on any particular pick so difficult to analyze who contributed more to any particular success or failure as far as the draft other than to say they were all involved. If Coach T had a strong opinion one way or another it is hard to believe that would not be influential.

 

No one was on the roster that Tomlin didn't want to be there.

 

Both the GM and the head coach report directly to the owner. That’s what the team has long said. They’ve also long said that the GM runs the draft.


Go back and look at the goo goo eyes that Tomlin made at Malik Willis during pre draft workouts. He didn’t draft Kenny Pickett.

I’m sure Tomlin has a ton of input. I bet the other coaches did as well. It would be foolhardy for any team to draft guys the coaching staff didn’t want or believe in.

But many Steelers fans trying to rewrite history.

Plus, we can always start talking about Bill Cowher and his love affair with the look in Alonzo Jackson’s eyes.

 

The only drafts that matter are the ones for the Steelers.


Fun graph. Looks like chances are very good we draft another OT early.

 

come game day

 

the Steelers were heralded as the WR whisperers back around the Young Money Crew years IIRC

 

Hard to compare anything related to how players were selected as it varies by organization who collaborates with whom to make the selection. What may be more relevant is after the selections were made, which coaching staffs were more successful in orchestrating their new talent into a cohesive winning team. In other words, who did better with who they drafted, i.e. game planning, player development. Just wondering. Interesting OP.

 

Here's the breakdown on WRs in Rds 1-3:

Rd1
MM = 1
MT = 0

Rd2
MM = 4
MT = 5

Rd3
MM = 3
MT = 6

When you combine this with PFR's AV for each, MM far exceeded MT in drafting high level WRs even though MT picked more earlier in the draft.

[btw, please feel free to substitute "KC" for "MT" if you think it was him doing the drafting. In the end, it's an org decision.]

 

Packers WRs That Didn't Suck 2006-2018 (Out of 19 total Picks) https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/draft/history/_/position/wr:

• Greg Jennings - Round 2
• James Jones - Round 3
• Jordy Nelson - Round 2
• Randall Cobb - Round 2
• Davante Adams - Round 2
• MVS - Round 5

Steelers WRs That Didn't Suck 2006-2018 (Out of 15 total Picks) https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/pittsburgh-steelers/draft/history/_/position/wr:

• Santonio Holmes - Round 1
• Mike Wallace - Round 3
• Antonio Brown - Round 6
• Emmanuel Sanders - Round 3
• Martavis Bryant - Round 4
• Juju - Round 2

Can we stop with the emerging narrative that Mike McCarthy and Ted Thompson were some WR drafting savants? Those two lists are at best a push. Arguably, Brown and Wallace have the Steelers extracting better draft value. The reality is that the two teams were similar in this period in that their incredible HOF QB made it work with a number of WRs. And each team drafted two incredible talents (Adams and Brown).

 

The steelers were considered by the NFL as the best team to draft wide receiver during this period.The packers were still solid even if it was not as great that the steelers during this time.This is true having a hof caliber QB help a lot but if one thing the pats were bad during this period in the Brady era was to draft wide receiver,so the packers and steelers still deserve credit for that even if having hof QB help big time

 

I used the first three rounds as the measuring stick because according to Colbert those players are "expected to eventually be starters". The later rounds are mostly luck if they work out.

Using PFR's wAV as an objective measure it's clear the Steelers were not as good as GB/DAL at picking WRs in the Tomlin/MM era.

Adams - 92
Nelson - 73
Jennings - 66
Lamb - 65
Cobb - 64
Jones - 46
Montgomery - 17
Tolbert - 9

So MM had two busts at WR in the first three rounds.

Sanders - 63
Wallace - 57
JuJu - 43
Pickens - 36
DJ - 35
Claypool - 19
Washington - 11
Coates - 4
Wilson - 2
Sweed - 1
Archer - 0

Even giving the benefit of the doubt on Claypool that still leaves the Steelers with 5 WRs busts in the first three rounds. And GB/DAL has 5 WRs rated higher than the Steelers top rated pick.

(Bryant was a 4th round pick, Holmes drafted pre-Tomlin)

 

That excludes Brown, the Steelers best WR. Seems to be tipping the scales in an attempt to prove a specific point a priori.

Plus, MM and MT had not a great deal to do with drafting specific players. You are comparing Colbert and Thompson.

The more critical study to the role that MM could contribute to the Steelers moving forward would be how many WRs does his offense need to function and does he have a track record of getting lesser known WR prospects to exceed their projections? That is where a coaching staff can have a larger impact on young players rather than in scouting and identification of prospects.

If you look at the draft picks in the 2006-2018 period....the Steelers got more later round picks on the field and productive than the Packers did.

 

Not tipping anything. I explained my method. It's the same for both teams. If the Steelers knew Brown would be all-world as a WR don't you think they would have grabbed him much earlier?

This offense needs more than one WR. And honestly, Metcalf was somewhat disappointing given what the Steelers are paying him. I would not be surprised if Kahn/MM draft two WRs (unless MM thinks Wilson got a raw deal last season). This is a deep class, and the talent is there.

Not sure how to interpret your last statement. If it was great coaching that got the late round picks on the field then why weren't the early picks better? Better players later? Then the Steelers misevaluated the early picks.

 

If you don't look at ALL the WRs drafted for both teams....then you are not getting the full picture. The presence of Antonio Brown on the roster certainly influenced the prioritization and types of WRs the Steelers targeted in the draft. Or at least one would assume. Just like having Davante Adams on the roster influenced GB.

And, again, I do not know how many times I can repeat this until you hear it. Neither MM or MT was making the final decisions on these WRs. They had opinions, preferences, and priorities for annual roster construction that were certainly taken into account. But both Colbert and Thompson were very powerful GMs that were provided wide latitude by ownership to run the draft how they saw fit.

What your analysis appears to show is that GB was better at scouting WRs in the fist 3 rounds of the draft and the Steelers were better at scouting WRs in the bottom 4 rounds of the draft. I have no idea if that is actually true....but that is in line with the overall numbers for about a dozen years or so.

It is further possible that the MM version of the west coast system requires better athletes to thrive at the WR position and those are found earlier in the draft? Maybe the "run to the buick and turn around" sandlot style that Ben preferred was not as technical and mentally demanding? I have no idea....but there are intriguing hints in the data. That and the existence of Coby Hamilton.

 

I can agree with your first statement. And sure, the drafts fall on the org and its scouting depts. I used MM/MT to set similar time frames with consistent coaching styles for each. In that case give the Steelers credit for the Holmes pick in 2006, who rated wAV = 47.

 

I watched the NYG on Hard Knocks and it seemed to me that most teams have 4-5 top guys sit in a room and discuss the good and bad of every draft pick and then agree upon it. I'm sure there are heated discussions. The NYG were a joke to me. I think they were partying when picking.