McCarthy vs Tomlin Drafts

Breakdown on % of picks for each position. A very interesting contrast between the two. Some might argue 'yea but' on specific positions but over the time span we are looking at for these two coaches the season to season stuff starts to even out. Both have had franchise QBs for much of their coaching days.

I am encouraged that McCarthy emphasizes the trenches more so than Tomlin did. And for as many WRs as as you think Tomlin drafted McCarthy spent a higher % on them.

[note; plot is % of their picks not #s; for reference, MT had 150 picks total, MM had 164 picks total]

 

The thing is you don't know how much say MM had in the drafting process in Green Bay, I think Jerry and his flunkies had the most say in Dallas.

 

He had a pretty decent amount in GB. Not total authority. Ted Thompson had the lead role and final say.

Pretty much exactly what the Steelers claim is how their FO has functioned for decades. Despite fan claims that the GM isn’t running the show.

 

This is cool! Thanks.

I agree with you that it's nice that both have large samples so the percentages are probably pretty reflective.

I wonder if the reason we spent a lower %age on WRs is because we drafted one in the 2nd or 3rd most years.

Maybe MM was drafting them later (on average) so fewer panned out?

In general, I like churning WRs when you have an above average to elite QB (like MT and MM both had). WRs are too expensive to pay if you're also paying a QB (looking at you Bengals).

I feel good about TF at RT, but I don't have confidence in what we're doing at LT. The great thing about hitting on OL (and QBs too) is that you don't need to draft them often if you draft them well. Because they have good longevity.

Maybe the opposite of your WR observation is the QB position. Seems like I've heard from many places about how MM likes taking QBs often to get lots of lottery tickets with later round types. But looks like Tomlin drafted more.

 

A follow up plot showing Tomlin vs McCarthy drafts for the first three rounds.

[note; since they both had the same number of picks (60) the vertical axis is # of picks and not percentage]

McCarthy clearly prioritized DTs and DBs. Tomlin went after WRs and RBs. Kinda ironic that an offensive HC went defense, and a defensive HC went offense. Is this perhaps a sign that a coach's expertise gives them more comfort to draft those players in later rounds?

 

the chart only tells part of the story too. did those positions hit? which coach had the better hit rate of player out of those positions? long term draft and plug in for the next ten years. more doesn't always mean better.

 

that's just in a two year period.

 

When fans have to wear player's jerseys the length of a wedding gown to fit the names of all the failed quarterbacks on there, it suggests a congested chart.

 

I agree. But then you get tangled up in 'what is success?'

If you are a believer in PFR's AV values here's an example breakdown for DBs in the first three rounds:

MM: DBs = 14; total wAV = 230; or 16.4 per pick
MT: DBs = 9; total wAV = 122; or 13.6 per pick

So MM picked more DBs early and got better value for those picks (I know, shocker). It comes down to priorities for each coach.

Let's look at WR as the counter example, MT picking more earlier vs MM.

MM: WRs = 8; total wAV = 432; or 54 per pick
MT: WRs = 11; total wAV = 284; or 25.8 per pick

MM rarely picked a flop WR. Tomlin/Colbert often flopped (Sweed, Wheaton, Coates, etc). Tells me the Steelers really didn't know what to look for in a WR but MM had an eye for them.

 

Thanks for this!

I think we were churning WRs because they are expensive and we had an expensive QB. So many early RBs is a bad call IMO since they don't cost much (although they are both older coaches and RBs were more expensive when they started) and they are probably the highest probability position to find late in the draft (and through UDFA).

I wonder if the rationale is similar for MM. DTs are expensive. I think DBs (assuming mostly CBs here) are kind of like WRs (and the opposite of RBs) where they have been increasing in cao% over time.

Interesting that we took higher C and G. Don't see OT on the list (e.g., BJ and TF).

 

WR part is funny because they got a reputation for being able to pick WRs (which I think is because we always picked one early / Ben made them all look better than they were / we lucked into AB in the 6th).

 

Ted Thompson made those picks.
Just as Kevin Colbert made the Steelers picks.
Will McClay is the individual widely believed to be responsible for overseeing Dallas drafts.

The data is fascinating and excellent. But I’m telling you that Thompson had more power over player personnel decisions than McCarthy did. It’s likely that McCarthy had input. But he’s not scouting guys and finding sleeper WRs. And neither was Tomlin.

From what I’ve read, most NFL head coaches don’t even start paying attention to college players until March. They’re relying on others for the evaluation and scouting.

Cleariy we know head coaches get a vote and a big one. But most of what is being compared and discussed here is GM performance.

 

The data while interesting. Steelers will go about busy as usual. The power structure has not changed.

 

There has yet to be any actual facts or proof as to how much control MT had either, just media speculation and "unnamed sources."

 

Plus the observation that drafting seemed to change when Weidl/Kahn took over from Colbert - and looked a lot more like a Philly OL heavy approach.

 

They churned because they missed too much.
And that rep isn't deserved when looking at MM vs the Steelers. Too many misses. AB saved their bacon.

 

I believe that's exactly it

 

From what I've seen by most haters was.....
Tomlin drafted them if they sucked, and our GMs drafted them if they were good.

 

Nah, when the draft picks and signings failed it was Tomlin's fault according to the fans .

 

It's a bit of both I think.

I also think our "miss rate" increased when Ben started aging out. But I don't have the data, so maybe that's not true.

Either way, we certainly had a strategy of picking a WR in the 2nd or 3rd basically every year. But never (or almost never) the 1st.

I don't think that's a bad strategy since most teams have 3x starters at WR...except the single-wing type offenses we've been running lately.

 

You're right. I missed OTs in the plot. For reference, MM drafted 6 and Tomlin drafted 5 in the first three rounds. So not much difference there.

On DTs, I don't know what kind of defense McCarthy ran in GB and DAL, 4-3 or 3-4?

 

3-4 coached by mostly by one Dom Capers.

 

It wasn't just because of Tomlin, but he had a say in the roster decision(free agent,trade or draft) just like Colbert or Khan.