Why RBs Don't get Paid Anymore (Freakonomics)

Didn't want to necro the old Najee / Warren post for this.

But the Freakonomics podcast just released an update of their podcast "Why Don't RBs Get Paid Anymore?" episode from last year.

It's a pretty interesting look at the market IMO.

Talkes to former RBs, agents, and the guy who (they say) developed EPA in football (I assume they are correct).

I think the take home messages (which I don't think are surprising) are:

• Running the ball is kind of like long-2s in basketball. Passing plays (like 3s) deliver more value per play than running plays. So in times where you can ignore score effects (i.e., run when you're winning by a lot, pass when you're down by a lot), the average passing play is better than the average running play.
• RB is probably the most brutal position on the field and they take a tremendous amount of punishment. Their careers are short. The best backs do get screwed by the CBA, but that's a small minority of people.
• While the podcast talks about 5 years of control by the team, that's only true (in the way the podcast talks about it) if the RB is taken in the 1st round. This happens less. And the 5th year options are (1) more lucrative now and (2) guaranteed after year 3 if they are exercised. IMO, point (2) was a big sticking point for the Najee decision (especially since he had so many touches).
• Teams do still have control for up to 2 years beyond the rookie deal (and option if exercised) because they can tag a guy twice (like we tried to do with Bell). While many players hate this, I wonder if it's not a terrible thing for RBs because it's guaranteed money at a high value. And they can hit another big (for RB) contracts again in a year (if they stay healthy).
• Good running plays are about way more than the running back. Spending money on the OL probably gives you a better running game because they play develops better and even UDFA RBs can still come in and contribute.

Interesting because the agent they talked to was Bell's agent (or maybe just in the same agency?). But he "declined to comment" on Bell's situation in particular. Too bad, because I think it would be super interesting to get an inside scoop on the "pay him like a RB1 and WR2" fiasco.

 

True, but contracts at that position were higher last year with raises for Barkley and Henry... I expect it to be the same for Robinson in Atlanta and Gibbs in Detroit this offseason.

It's still less than other positions, but it's been much worse, and Bell deserves the blame for that. When he was a free agent in 2019, he expected to reset the market at that position like crazy, but it went in the other direction, the wrong direction for the market. But Henry and Barkley's big season in 2024 helped a lot to reset the market in the right direction.

 

Still paid low relative to other positions. It's Philly, so they went full void years...but his cap hit this year was $6MM, next year $10MM.

I do think it makes some sense for them to maximize the next few years. Hurts contract gets insane in 2029 (voided with $100MM cap hit). My understanding is that all of that cap hit has already been pushed out as far as it can go. So I think they have 3 more seasons to try to win again before I think they basically have to crater and rebuild (although maybe cap inflation will help them to some extent. I wouldn't be surprised if they restructure the guaranteed salary in 2025 and 2026 (42MM then 52MM, to push even more cap hit into 2029...and then beyond).

And the Barkley deal probably doesn't bode super-well for other RBs in the future.

He was still a good RB in 2025, but he also had almost 1,000 fewer rushing yards this year vs last year (about the same receiving yards).

RBs do get paid sometimes. But the big contracts usually highlight that it isn't a great investment. Look at a guy like McCaffrey. Who gets 2k total yards every year he isn't on my fantasy team. But gets hurt for long stretches ever time I draft him (sorry everyone else who plays FF).

Henry's the best example of a guy who got paid and still produced (in year 1 anyway). He obviously dropped off from 1900 yards. But "only" by ~ 300 yards from the year before (still a 1600 yard season is obviously elite). If he didn't play for Baltimore, it would be easier for me to hope that he keeps churning out elite seasons. He's so fun to watch...but **** the Rats.

 

I didn't look, but I think as a %age of the cap RBs went up last year. But still far below where they were in the "glory days" of RBs.

 

A good OL and runner is so very valuable and desirable, obviously along with a passing attack. But I look at this dynamic like a pendulum that needs to find equilibrium to stay compliant to the cap. More money going one place/ position will have to be taken from somewhere else. With so much emphasis in the National Passing League, WR's/ QBs will continue to dominate salaries over RB's. I definitely am not a NFL money expert but with a limited pot, some things will get while others will have to give, I'd think. I know GMs can work "miracles" sometimes to make the numbers work but I think this gets teams into trouble or what some call CAP hell. TJ's contract comes to mind although he's on the other side of the ball. I personally don't care as long as we get win's and get to a SB. JMO>

 

I was curious so I checked. It doesn't appear they have risen much at all as a %age of the cap in the last 15 years.

GMs are playing it with the analytics in mind, i.e, a form of moneyball for the NFL.

 

Blame the Denver Broncos for starting this trend..... during the Mike Shanahan years, the Broncos were churning out rb's like they grew on trees..... every time one went down, another came in out of nowhere to star for them,...
Other teams saw this and realized that they didn't have to use valuable early draft capital on the position, and started looking for bargain basement alternatives to the marquee guy...
Only the truly special backs get 1st rd nods now

 

On another site the reason for not signing RB’s to bug money was lack of SB appearances by high priced RB’s. Then McCaffrey made it in 2024.. lol. But since he didn’t win the reason why was his contract.

Bell’s biggest mistake was seeing his college teammate Kirk Cousin’s finesse ridiculous money from teams and thinking he could do the same.

Steelers gave him a good contract but it was the typical dusty ass contract without guaranteed money after the first year.

If I’m not mistaken, Watt was able to finally get more than 1 year of guaranteed money.

and as I predicted on that other site, we haven’t won a playoff game since Bell left and he holds the record for most yards by a RB in his first 2 playoff games.

Elite RB’s deserve big money based on production. As we all know, there is no other position in football where big money for a great WR, QB, LB or Corner guarantees a SB appearance yet RB seems to be the only position where its used against them.

Watt has been paid handsomely and he has one quarter of good playoff football under his belt.

Lastly.. who cares about the cap hit the first few years? Like they say, the cap is a myth that can be manipulated. Its not real.

 

The question i would ask are,where have the big backs gone.Think our Bus was the last big back..Bam Morris ..we had some huge big one that were good

 

The only RBs to pay big money for are ones that excel in both rushing and receiving. They're just not gonna get paid if they can't do both at a high level. McCaffery was probably the trend starter there. This season he was #1 in receiving yds/gm among RBs. This was Harris' biggest flaw for not getting the mega contract. He just wasn't much of a factor in the receiving game. It will be very interesting to see where Gainwell falls in his next contract. He was 5th best this season in receiving yds/gm and did well rushing as a RB2.

 

Franco Harris was released by the Pittsburgh Steelers in August 1984 following a contract dispute where he sought a raise and a guaranteed second year, while the team offered a $557,000 base salary plus a $100,000 bonus. He subsequently signed with the Seattle Seahawks for roughly $300,000 for the 1984 season before retiring.

Times sure have changed as they always do.

 

I think you'd like the podcast episode if you have time to listen to it (about 1 hour at normal speed, or faster if you increase).

They are pretty balanced. And they certainly have several people who have what I think is the same point of view you have on this issue. Including several former RBs. And they apparently found an economist to co-host who at least says he did really well playing RB when he was young in Texas. I think his stance is kind of "I understand why RBs don't get paid like they used to (marginal utility), but I don't like it because they're super talented and 'deserve' (not in the economic sense) to be paid more."

It certainly sucks for RBs that their position is too brutal for even very good ones to really benefit from big 2nd contracts. That's the reality for the vast majority of NFL players. But usually, guys who are very good still get paid.

And for the guys who grew up watching the RBs they idolized getting paid more like QBs. And now they get paid more like safeties.

And while some will say they should learn to throw or catch, prototypical RBs tend to have different body types than prototypical QBs and WRs. And "learn to throw" is kind of hilarious. Because there probably aren't 32 people in the world that can play QB at an NFL level. They'd have a better chance at becoming WRs IMO. And I'm sure that lots of guys are going to try to make that switch if they can. Which will make it "easier" to make it as a RB. And it's probably better to be a "poorly" paid RB in the NFL than whatever guys who don't make it to the league after college do (although who knows how true that really is given how beat up these guys get physically and mentally).

 

People "did the math" and most teams realize the explosive plays are really important in the NFL (almost as important as turnovers!).

So teams want guys who can hit the home run.

They can still be big (Barkley, Henry), but they have to be able to run. I went back to look, and Henry's combine weight was about the same as Jerome's (250 lbs). Barkley was 233.

The other answer is "on the Steelers roster". Because Tomlin really valued the high durability guys (who tend to be bigger). So we took a guy like Najee (big and slow, but could take 300+ touches pretty consistently...until he couldn't) instead of a guy like Robinson (smaller, home run guy).

I'd really prefer us to look for the next FWP, not the next Bettis or Bam. I think people don't necessarily appreciate how good (and durable) FWP was because he was playing in Jerome's shadow. He was still getting 300+ carries. He just couldn't do it for as long as a guy like Jerome (who was an outlier even in the bigger back days).

 

There's no need for a RB to be all that big any longer. The demand that LBers cover space in the passing game has shrunk LB sizes. So you shrink RBs down as well. Now everyone runs faster as both sides seek explosive plays.

Days of two guys weighing 250+ wearing shoulder pads the size of tires meeting in the hole are not coming back soon.

At some point....some down on their luck franchise is going to try it. Just find the 5 largest OL they can, get a massive RB, and line up and run power on one of these teams that likes to live in nickel. We see the beginnings of that shift back towards using the run game to overpower defenses with even guys like McVay falling in love with 13 personnel and jumbo packages.

It makes sense....you have a league full of light and fast defenses....try and just overpower them.

 

I do think it will be interesting to see what happens going forward.

If other teams start paying RBs, I hope we don't follow suit.

I'd rather give big contracts to guys who play positions with long careers (QB, OL, but not P obviously).

But, I could see a team like us (without a franchise QB) getting into a "face of the franchise" issue (like we did with TJ). Players kind of have you over a barrel when they're one of a small few of very good players on the team and they plaster your face on everything.

Plus, the CBA makes you spend cash and cap. So if you don't have many elite players, you have no choice but to pay someone (and inflate the salary at that position). It's the "bad draft tax" we were forced to pay with DK.

 

Our RB1 comes from that line. Warren was an UDFA signing for us.

 

It's not a terrible idea when you don't have a QB.

It's why we did this in the last (failed) offensive rebuild. Although we tried to keep the old line duct-taped together for too long IMO.

Unfortunately, Najee (who I think would have been close to ideal in the late-90s) just isn't a modern NFL RB. Although maybe he'd have looked better if we put him in a modern NFL offense. With a modern QB (the kind that can throw TDs more than once a month or so).

 

FWP was also a UDFA who was very productive for us. Better than Warren IMO.

 

Great post!

Thanks for getting the numbers.

The only reason they didn't have a reduction in salary is because the cap inflation has been crazy. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cba

NFL cap in 2025: $279,200,000
NFL cap in 2020: $198,200,000
NFL cap in 2015: $143,280,000

So in the last 10 years, the cap has increased by $135,920,000 (that's a ~95% increase).

In the last 5 years, it's increased $81,000,000 (~41% increase).

Didn't do exact math here, but average of the top 5 QB cap hits in 2020 was ~ $28.8MM. It's something like $56MM in 2025. Unsurprisingly, this outpaces cap inflation (94% increase vs. 41% increase of the cap).

For RBs it has actually gone down: 2020 ~ $10MM. 2025 ~ $11MM. Up about 10% vs 41% cap inflation. They are getting destroyed by cap inflation. Probably because metrics like EPA suggest that RBs were being overpaid based on their contributions to team success (even in 2020) and RB is the easiest "skill position" to find low-cost plug-and-play guys. Which is good because they play probably the most brutal position in the league so they get injured a lot and decline quickly.

 

and in the last 9 years since the cap exploded we haven’t found a way to win one damn playoff game even though we have all this money to spread around everywhere else?

If I were the Steeler GM, the next time a Derek Henry or Barkley is available I’m jumping at the chance to sign them.

An elite RB is worth the money BECAUSE ITS NOT EVEN A LOT OF MONEY!!!

 

Denver won SB’s.. we have won nothing with our current model. Also, Denver was cut blocking like crazy back then. Dirty as hell.