Two-year extension for Jaylen Warren

Yup. That was one of the reasons I had hope going into the Sunday night game. The Ravens do not rush the passer well at all.

 

I agree.

I also wonder how much time our coaching staff thinks about how every team we face tries to get it out in 2 seconds so we don't kill their QB. And how good QBs seem to consistently kill us with this strategy.

 

Do they? I remember seeing statistics demonstrating that isn't entirely true. It happened a few times early in the season, most notably the loss to the Bengals, but not as consistently as you think.

 

YPC are a cop out..
If You aren't a work horse back they mean nothing.
Curtis Martin, Emmitt Smith, Jerome Bettis, all were actual work horse RBs, and some of the Best Rbs this game has ever seen. 4.2 YPC was about the highest they got. Because when you are used over, and over your YPC tend to go down. Unless anyone wants to dispute that our RBs we have at this time , and many Rbs with higher YPC are better than Emmitt Smith, Curtis Martin, and Jerome Bettis.
Also nobody is bringing up the fact that we have about 400 yards less rushing this year. My main thing with Warren, and Najee when they both played together was the needless bashing of one to try , and raise the other.
Instead of being happy of how they complimented each other, and yet it's still going.
With all that said.
Go Warren, Gainwell,and KJ.

 

Money post!!!

I don’t understand how folks can call this better because of ypc or success rate when we have less rushing yards, less offense overall and the same record as we had with Matt Canada.

Sure, we won the North but it isn’t because we dominated it. We had 6 points vs the Stains when we had a chance to win and rest players and Burrow and Lamar missed half the season.

 

Re: YPC. I think by itself it's got issues. But I think that looking at YPC (how frequent does the RB deliver big runs) and succ% (how often does the RB get you ahead of schedule) together gives you a pretty good idea of how "good" / "efficient" the player is (provided the sample is big enough...maybe 100 carries or so?).

Re: Old greats. The game is different now than it was then.

YPC is a proxy for whether or not the RB hits home runs. We saw that with Warren in the Lions game. His YPC went from 4 to 4.5 in a game late in the season because of 2 carries.

It's like how big men didn't used to shoot 3s in the NBA. But now it's a big deal.

Also, you're not correct about the YPC of the players you mentioned.

Bettis' carrer best YPC was 4.9.
Martin's career best was 4.6.
Smith's career best was 5.3.

And again...all of these guys played in a very different NFL that wasn't nearly as centered around explosive plays. I've said several times (in this thread and on the board I migrated from) that I think Najee would have been pretty close to the ideal 90s back. But his inability to make game changing plays made him "just OK" in today's NFL. Where big plays are more important than durability (the opposite of the 90s RBs we all loved).

And those guys in the 90s were also getting way more carries than a RB gets in today's NFL. Smith had years where he had 377, 368, and 356 carries. Martin had a 371. Bettis had 375. That's unheard of in today's NFL...and we play an extra game now too. This isn't to say that backs in today's NFL are soft or anything. Frankly, I think today's backs are even tougher than the guys in the 90s. Because the collisions are getting more and more violent. Which is why guys don't have the 15 (Smith), 13 (Bettis), and even 11 (Martin) year careers those guys have.

In Najee's rookie year, he had 307 behind only Taylor (332). But in 2024, Najee had 263 carries...which still ranked 7th in the league. I haven't counted, but I'd imagine that Najee has the most carries by a RB from 2021 - 2024 since he stayed healthy (307, 272, 255, 263)*. This is an insane workload in today's NFL. But Bettis only carried less than 299 times in seasons where he wasn't starting all year.

It's why I think Derrick Henry is among the most impressive backs in NFL history. Guys don't have 10 years of excellence at the RB position anymore. And he's not just durable...he's explosive too. His career YPC is 4.9 (compared to Najee's 3.9). Outside of his rookie year, his long every season is more than Najee's career long. And he's doing it multiple times a year. He's still almost unstoppable (except that Harbaugh often forgets that he's on the team). This is the kind of back that's worth paying. He can bang away on short yardage...and bust 80 yard TDs. Even now when he's in his 30s.

* Henry was close 2021-2024 (219, 349, 280, 325), but he missed half year in 2021 (only played 8 games but had 221 carries!!!). He does have more work from 2022 - 2025 (349, 280, 325, 307) than Najee has from 2021-2024. I thought he'd see a big decline / get injured this season after getting 325 carried last year (at 31). But he just keeps trucking guys (and then leaving them in the dust). Taylor gets a lot of work when healthy, but he missed a half season in both 2022 and 2023.

Edited to add: And while he isn't a good human, OJ was a ****ing beast. Getting ~ 300 carries in 14 game seasons. Racking up 2k yards. His YPC is 6.0 in his best year with an average of 143 yards a game! Again, not a good human. But I wish I was around to watch him play in real time. Must have been crazy to watch.

 

agree on Henry

 

Part of the reason the offsense sucked under Matt Canada is that we were always behind schedule*. This is what success rate tells you.

Najee was poor at keeping us on schedule with Canada, the few games under Faulkner/Sullivan, and Smith. But my guess is that he didn't put us too far behind schedule. I think that's why we see big swings in his succ%. My guess is that he usually gives you right around what the success criteria is. Although he certainly got stuffed a lot too.

This also put Kenny is ****ty situations because we'd run on 1st and get a yard or 2. Run on 2nd and also not get much. Then we'd have 3rd and long. We can see from after he left that Kenny just isn't an NFL QB (outplayed by 3rd string QBs basically every time the 3rd got a chance to play). But he certainly wasn't put in great situations when he was here either.

* I'm surprised that my TV survived all the 2nd and long runs. Might as well just punt early at that point.

 

i for one, do not miss Najee.

Nice guy, but the Warren / Gainwell combo is JUST FINE.

yes - a BIG BACK in the mix would be nice. Johnson was big disappointment this year.

Is Gainwell just a 1 yr contract?

 

I guess McCaffrey isn't any good. He only had 3.9 YPC this year???
Yet we all know they don't win games when he's not playing, or playing well.

 

it wasn’t that Najee was poor at keeping us on schedule, the OL was poor and the play calling was predictable for the bulk of his time here.

and the whole “ahead of schedule” is laughable.

We are 10-7 and hosting a 12-5 team. The AFC North has the 2nd least amount of wins of any conference in the NFL.

We aren’t doing anything special on the ground. We are passing more efficiently and sprinkling in some runs.

and I also believe AR is checking out of runs at a much higher rate on first down than other QB’s in the past.

First half last game we didn’t have a run longer than 2 yards until the 3:09 mark in the second half.

 

Joel loves some Etienne because of his high ypc. I pointed it out before but this year we are seeing it again. They are on an 8 game win streak and Etienne has only had 2 games over 4 ypc during that streak.


No one faces the Steelers and says “must stop the run”

Its all about Aaron Rodgers and getting these RB’s on LB’s in space in the passing game.

Its not the success rate or the rushing attack. Its the occasional nice run but mostly the passes out of the backfield.

I’ll keep saying it over and over. If we were 12-5 or 13-4 and our RB’s were doing damage I could be convinced things are so much better but we are benefitting from Lamar and Burrow missing games. Either one of those teams wins 11 games and we are having a totally different conversation about our weapons on offense.

We are not witnessing better efficiency or better production. We are benefiting from a down year in the AFC. Hopefully we take advantage.

 

Felt, no one is saying that we're amazing at running.

Just that we're not worse than last year. And that our RBs this year were slightly more productive than last year even though they got almost a game's less touches (so they were more efficient).

And that the sky didn't fall when we let Najee leave and replaced him by promoting a UDFA and grabbing a guy off the scrap heap. Because the decision to let Najee go wasn't an important decision (except to people who were big fans of Najee).

I agree that AR is better than Kenny, Mitch, Mason, Russ, and Fields. The bar here is pretty low (especially re: Kenny and Mitch). But it's not some staggering difference from last season either. I think old-man Aaron is probably even a little better than old-man Ben (who was also better than Kenny, Mitch, Mason, Russ, and Fields) who was still good at pre-snap reads, but didn't have much accuracy on medium and deep passes.

After all...We are 10-7 and hosting a 12-5 team. The AFC North has the 2nd least amount of wins of any conference in the NFL.

 

Nobody said the sky was falling, but the running game is less productive. They have made up for it with the short passing game, but much of that is a product of Rodgers being better than the quarterbacks the team had the last few seasons.

The improved quarterback play makes it easier for the backs, but even with that, the running game has not been strong outside of a few games.

 

Dumped the trash RB, QB, and WR

Plain and simple

 

The running game only got less yards because there were fewer carries (and fewer plays on offense). The run game was far more efficient this year (both by YPC and by succ%).

In this case, you're saying that the running game was more "productive" last year. By this, I assume you mean "it got more yards".

As has been has been pointed out many times in this thread, this is because we ran so few total plays on offense this year. I can't find a great reference that just showed plays, but I counted up the passing and rushing plays from here (2025 and 2024). In 2025, we ran 957 plays (550 pass + 407 run). In 2024, we ran 1032 plays (499 pass + 533 run).

In terms of just running plays: We ran the 4the fewest run plays of all teams in 2025. In 2024, we ran the 4th most rushing plays! It doesn't take Sherlock Holmes to figure out why we had more rushing yards in 2024. In fact, it's pretty shocking that we were only short by 159 yards this year. Note: this is only counting the top 2 backs. There were "only" 55 more fewer from the top 2 packs. Thank God we didn't also have to deal with Patterson's lack of ability rushing this year!

I think it's pretty clear that if the D was better at getting off the field, we would have run more plays (including running plays). And if we got to the same number of rushes from the top 2 guys, we would have been well ahead on rush yards.

I've added the carry numbers and total YPC below in orange. All stats there are from pfr.

It is true that we had 159 fewer rushing yards this year, despite having a big increase in YPC and succ% (two things Najee was pretty bad at). But it's pretty clear that isn't because Najee was better at running the ball (he was not).

If we had the extra 55 carries we got last year, we would have needed 2.89 YPC in those extra carries to equal the yardage from last year. That's something that even Najee could do!

And FWIW, I agree that the running game this year hasn't been strong. Part of this is lack of opportunity. But despite having (somewhat) better RBs this year vs. last year, I think we need an upgrade at RB1.

Ultimately, I think Najee isn't a good RB for today's NFL (but I think he would have excelled in a 90s Marty-ball type offense when everyone on the field was slower).

The idea that the running game was good in some games and bad in others is true for basically every team, not sure why you think that needs to be stated here.

RB Comparison Final Total Production 2025 vs 2024 Updated to include carries.

2025:

• Jaylen Warren: 958 rushing (211 carries), 333 receiving. Total Yards: 1291. 8 total TDs. succ% 54.5. YPC 4.5. Long 45. YPR 8.3. Touches: 251
• Kenneth Gainwell: 537 rushing (114 carries), 486 receiving. Total Yards: 1023. 8 total TDs. succ% 55.3%. YPC 4.7. Long 55. YPR 6.7. Touches: 187
• Total: 1395 rushing (325 carries = 4.29 ypc), carries: 819 receiving . 2214 total yards. 16 TDs. 438 touches.

2024:

• Najee Harris: 1043 rushing (263 carries), 283 receiving. Total Yards: 1326. 6 TDs. succ% 43.7. YPC 4.0. Long 36. YPR 7.9. Touches: 299
• Jaylen Warren: 511 rushing, 310 receiving (120 carries). Total Yards: 821. 1 total TD. succ% 50.0. YPC 4.3. Long 22. YPR 8.2. Touches: 158
• Total: 1554 rushing (380 carries = 4.09 ypc). 593 receiving. 2147 total. 7 TDs. Touches: 457

 

EPA is a measure from advanced analytics. Every play has a value based on down, distance, yards gained, field position, time remaining, scoring, etc. and its statistical average to produce points. EPA was developed using decades of NFL data. It's highly correlated to WINS.

Warren in 2025:

• Total rush EPA = -0.5, ranking him 16th for RBs with 100+ rushes. [His highest rush EPA play was one of the 45 yd TDs vs Lions = +4.2.
• Gainwell is right after Warren at 17th, with a rush EPA=-0.65 [highest EPA rush play was the 55 yd TD vs Bears =+5.8]
• D. Henry is ranked 8th with a rush EPA = +9.2 for comparison

*note that it's not unusual for all but the top RBs to have negative rush EPAs since most running plays don't produce much in the way of expected points. After all, it's a passing league.

2024:

• Harris Total rush EPA of -18.3, ranking him 36th for RBs with 100+ rushes. [highest EPA rush play was a 10 yd TD vs NYJ = +4.6]
• Warren total rush EPA = -14.1, 30th

What does all this mean? Warren has been more productive in rushing this season but is still middling. Same with Gainwell.

As receivers?

Warren as a receiver has an EPA = +10.6 (4th on the team behind Metcalf, Muth, and Washington).
Harris in 2024 as a receiver had an EPA = +7.5 (6th on the team). (Warren was +1.0 as a receiver.)

Bottomline, there has been a measurable upgrade at the RB position. I will let yinz argue what the source is, better QB, better OL, better scheme, better RBs, etc.

 

i agree that better QB play makes running easier

Najee was put in a SUCK Position for years.

Feel bad for him, always did.

His career was wasted here.....WASTED thanks to Tomlin and Co.


the offense is still in the bottom 1/3 and that is b/c the passing game too , is suspect. you need balance - we don't have it. But maybe, MAYBE we are finding it here late in the year. We did not get veteran WR help till week 12 or so.....

WE WILL SEE.......

 

But when they were in the same role, Najee had 52 more carries than Warren he gave us 85 more yards!!!! There's just no way Warren would have been able to get an average of 1.63 yards on those extra 52 carries.



Najee got more rushing yards! The discussion stops there. No further thought is required (or permitted!).

Agree with the conclusion in Orange. Better, but still not where we want it to be. Thankfully, RB tends to be the easiest position to upgrade.

Although, my guess is that we'll try to come back with the same RB room next year. Meaning that we'll probably pay Gainwell more than he's worth.

 

The running game getting fewer touches is partially the fault of the running game. They had too many games when they all but gave up on the run because they got nowhere. A strong running game creates more opportunities, but the Steelers couldn't pull that off despite having a more threatening passing game with Rodgers at quarterback. They were more effective in the final three games of the season, but that was the offense controlling the ball more and playing keep-away as much as it was the defense getting stops.

Keep in mind that Warren was down to 4.0 yards per carry before those final three games. His numbers were drastically inflated by two games, against a terrible Bengals defense and a broken one in Detroit. In the other 15 games, he was basically the 2023 version of Najee Harris, averaging 3.9 yards per carry. (That is what Harris averaged in 2023 if you take away his two games with the highest average per carry.)

 

If you actually read what Bubba and I said, we're not claiming that the running game is especially good. Just that it's better than last year. When it was even worse. Because Najee wasn't good at keeping up with the chains. And he never delivered the big game changing runs that drive YPC.

You can make all the excuses you want for why Najee had bad luck and Warren had good luck. But the problem with this is that Najee has > 1100 carries in the NFL. He's got a massive "N" here (I have where he is on the total carries all time upthread). He is what he is.

Re: YPC. The reason this changed for Warren was because of two big runs.

Because YPC is a stat that tells you how frequently a RB gets long runs. This is Najee's Achilles heel (no pun intended). Because he hasn't had a run as long as either of those big TDs despite having ~1100 carries in the NFL. Which strongly suggests that's he's not capable of doing it (unless he gets an OL like he had at 'Bama that's blocking against guys who aren't going to make practice squads like most of their opponents).

I told you this earlier in the thread. And you said that YPC wasn't about big carries.

Then we got an lesson about stats! Warren got two big carries late in the season and his YPC went from 4.0 to 4.5.

Because YPC is a proxy for how frequently a RB gets big carries (how long the long tail of the distribution is). Basically all RBs will have very similar mode and median yards on their attempts in a season. But the mean is driven by the big carries that skew the "average". It's the same reason that it's silly to look at mean income instead of median income. Because the long tail skews the mean.

These big runs aren't evenly distributed throughout the year. But for guys who consistently end up getting YPCs > 5 (e.g. D Henry), they happen so frequently that they feel more evenly distributed.