A look at Watt's production through Week 11

Well it certainly helped Watt in 2021 when the Steelers were starting two Heywards on the DL according to PFR.
But seriously, look at the back end that season. Haden, Sutton, and Fitz were all still playing at a high level. Even Edmunds had his best season as a Steeler. Makes a big difference in defending the quick pitch and catch offenses we see these days. Force the QB to hold the ball.

Having said this, I'm was/am in the anti-contract to Watt group. His missing games or getting dinged toward the end of every season was a warning shot not heeded.

 

As with many of your posts, I agree with part of what you are writing, though I still find parts of it to be unnecessarily condescending, which is how you lose your audience. You also ignored that I acknowledged that it was fair to say I should use a word other than proven, continuing to lecture instead of fully reading my response.

You are also ignoring that the sample size isn't just this season. Watt's decline began last season. The Steelers foolishly wrote it off as him being slowed by injuries when he completely disappeared during the final five or six games last season, but he wasn't dominating even before that.

Given the decline that started last season and his lack of production through 10 games this year, it is very likely that a player in his 30s is going to reverse the trend and become a dominant player again. The Steelers are paying him like the dominant player he used to be and only decent play out of it. That is money that could have been spent on upgrades at multiple positions. Look at the needs for next season. They probably need help at guard. They will need to add to the defensive line to replace Heyward. They may need help at cornerback. They definitely need a starting receiver. They will need a quarterback. Sure, they will get players out of the draft, but being able to spend on free agents could help them get back to being real contenders sooner. This argument that they don't need the cap room anyway just doesn't make sense.

 

The Steelers have $38 million dollars of cap space in 2026 with 41 players under contract. I think they are going to be fine. They have $142 million dollars of cap space in 2027.

The Steelers have zero concerns about their salary cap moving forward. They can sign anyone they want to almost any contract they want and make it fit. Plus, it is ALWAYS better to give cash to your existing roster than outside FA. Most players hit FA because they have serious on or off field liabilities. Queen was one of the best players to hit the FA market recently and he has warts in his play that even I can see.

 

Here is the list of LG, IDL, and CB free agents for 2026 (assuming they all make it to the open market): https://overthecap.com/free-agency

Steelers could easily sign any three or four of that list with their available cap space. Here is a better breakdown than I can manage: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space. Effectively $20 million or so they can spend like a drunken sailor on shore leave.

 

Your argument is basically because the Steelers will have a decent amount of cap space, they wouldn't be better off with more. Do you see how flawed of an argument that is?

No, it is not better to give cash to your existing roster if the player receiving it isn't worth the money, which is clearly the case with Watt.

 

When you argue that it doesn't matter that they are grossly overpaying Watt because they have plenty of cap room, that does imply that they don't need the cap room. The thing about cap room is that more is better. Wasting it on a player who is no longer worth it is a bad thing no matter how hard you try to cover it up.

 

I don’t see how people are not understanding this. It was clearly a bad deal so far and I highly doubt it gets better the next couple years as he gets older and more mileage. And even if it doesn’t crush their cap it doesn’t help it. Could have used money on skilled offensive players.

 

That rests on the faulty premise that MORE cap space is always better. That just isn't true. You can only spend it on so many guys. After that, it is just wasted accounting lines.

There are ZERO NFL players that the TJ Watt contract makes it impossible for the Steelers to sign. They can sign whoever they want and as many outside FA's as they want throughout the entire duration of the TJ Watt contract.

The "true" issue with the salary cap is not what you pay this guy or that guy, but the opportunity cost paying someone causes. In other words, if the Watt contract meant the Steelers couldn't go out and sign Josh Allen because the Bills shockingly cut him -- then you have a cap issue. But that isn't going to happen.

If the 2026 Pittsburgh Steelers want to sign the top FA LG, CB, Safety, WR, and interior DL -- they can do all that. So what is the issue?

 

I think part of this is him declining. I think that part of this is also teams adapting by getting the ball out quicker (would be interesting to see if opposing time to throw has gone down over time against us). I wonder if he's being chipped even more now?

Good news is that now that his stats are much worse than Garret's, PFF should be arguing that he's in perfect position to get DPOY...right?

 

I mean if you could have games of 5 and 4 sacks crammed into a season, it would make anyone's season stats look like a world beater. No one said a peep about him when he went quiet down the stretch, but Watt is criticized
incessantly

 

The average time to throw for an NFL quarterback in 2025 is approximately 2.78 seconds

Against the Chargers Herbert's average time to throw was 2.21

Apparently the Steelers are generating an average pressure of 2.66, but it appears opposing QB's are getting the ball out quicker against them.

One thing to note is how almost every team to beat the Steelers this year, went on to having sub-par performances in their next game against , Supposedly, worse defenses.