NFL 2025

When I first started betting the NFL I would have action on 6-10 games per week. Lots of action with small bet amounts. Thats the best way to learn I believe, and I have done it that way that for many years. But the problem was that I would win the small ones and lose the bigger ones. Have weeks of 6-2 and break even.lol It was a regular occurrence. The last few seasons I'm hitting the bigger bets and losing too many small ones. I'm looking for about 30-40 plays this regular season. I will post my strongest only and not show the weekly grind.


GL!




2024 / 20-24 -9.90
2025 / 36-37 +4.48

 

2025

Week #1

Using QLines from week #17 for reference and feeling. You know what to do .



25 Dal / Phi 40.5

41.5 KC / Lac 36

32 Mia / Ind 28

32.5 Pit / Jets 29.5

24.5 NYG/ WAS 35

25.5 Car / Jax 27.5

37 AZ / NO 26

34 Cin /Cle 25

25 LV / NE 26

41 TB / ATL 31

27 /Ten / Den 34.5

30 SF / Sea 32.5

40.5 Det / GB 37

32 Hou / Lar 32

41 Balt / Buf 37

38.5 Min / Chi 23


Betonline odds
Phi -6 , kc -3 , Mia pk, Pit -3, Was -6.5, Jax -2.5, AZ -6 , Cin -5.5 , NE -3, TB -1.5, Den -7.5, SF -2.5, GB -2, Lar -2.5

Buf -1 ,Min -2


Like Ten and Balt off the top of my head.

 

Betting the NFL is a losing proposition as you need to be 60% right to break even.

There is a trick to winning. The JB way. You keep doubling and add 20% to be bet until you win and quit.

Seldom do you lose five times in a row. ( 1 in 32 )

Bet the minimum first and quit for the year on your third 1st bet loss.

Only bet the amount you are willing to lose after 5 loses in a row.

The odds of you being a winner under the JB are roughly 80%.

No charge. Treat yourself to something as you won. Then STOP.

-JB


Blackjack is the best game to bet. Football is the best sport to bet.

 

I have lost 5 in a row many times...On the same day ! And Recently ! Beaver ball WNBA has kicked my ass albeit small $25 wagers . First season ever messing with it.

Nothing wrong with doing a little Martingale and pressing a winning bet.

But a chase system will put you down quick. Going 2 deep is about as far as you want to go, if you must. Theres a whole section at Covers on chase systems that never pan out.

Basketball is the best sport to bet. Less moving parts more games, lots of travel etc.


Finals - NBA - Forums - Pregame.com


cfb

Texas Longhorns +1.5 $218/200

 

Wk 1


Chargers +9 / Ravens +6 $200/182


Was hoping and waiting to get 3.5 on LAC and then lost a point on Balt . Sheesh

Got crap line on Texas too, but they are getting steamed.

GL!

 

If you lost five times in a row ( multiple times ), that's rare and you have no luck. Follow my system.

 

CFB

0-1, -2.18

Notre Dame -3 -105 1.05/1

GL !

 

Actually, I do not.

I've only grazed around the edges of sports betting, but would be interested to hear further explanation. I believe I get the general gist of things.

 

I give each team a point for winning a quarter and half point for push/tie and keep a running total . By about week 7 or so you can compare each teams total points and subtract to make a betting line. I call them QLines and discovered this way myself and have never seen anyone mention it but sure someone else out there does it.

Also I have to track a running total for Time of Poss +/- and line off L/O. For line off, for ex. Steelers are -3 fav and they beat Jets by 10 that's a +7 for Pit and -7 for Jets. All other stats for my line are easy pickings at pro football ref.

It`s called "My Line " But I didn't invent it. A poster named ACE ACE at a site called theRX showed everyone his version about 20 years ago. I have changed it for my own so it's not his original. He actually started posting again after a long layoff. He is an Ex bookie and is worth reading since he teaches and not just post picks. You need 3 weeks of stats for my line at a minimum.

I will post my line Steelers games every week and then any for the other games that I wager on. Too much typing for me as I do all games in a notebook. Speaking of typing Iwent cheasp on a keyboard and it doenst have the little light fore CAPS ! jEEZ IT SUCKs

 

My line example from last season

Bungals / Steelers +2.5

Top +9 (+10) = 0
Pen 755 - 803 = 48/100 = .48 Cin
TO +- (-4) +15 = 19/3 = 6.33 Pit
1DD 345+ 303=648/100=6.48 Pit
1OF 355+302= 657/100= 6.57 Cin
3OF 95+86= 181/25 = 7.24 Cin
3DD 83+67 =150/25 = 6.00 Pit
RZ +4 -7 =11/3 = 3.66 Cin

Cin = 17.95
Pit = 18.81 = Pitt by .86 +4.9 LO = Pit by 5.76


L/0 Cin -15 + 35 = 49/10 = 4.9 Pit

 

Week 14
QLines

GB 26.5 / Det 31 Lions by 4.5
Jax 19.5 / Ten 19.5 pk
Atl 22 / Min 28 Vikes -6
Car 19.5/ Phi 30 , Eag -10.5
Jets 22.5 / Mia 21.5 Jets -1
Cle 17.5 / Pit 26.5, Steelers -9
LV 16 / TB 29.5 Bucs -13.5
No 21.5 / NYG 17, NO -4.5
Sea 23 / AZ 28.5 , Cards -5.5
Bears 19.5 / SF 22.5 , SF -3
Buf 28.5 / LA 23, Buf -5.5
Lac 27 / KC 29.5 , Chiefs -2.5
Cin 19 / Dal 19 , pk

 

0-2, - 3.23

Wk 1


Chargers +9 / Ravens +6 $200/182

 

Tampa +1 -114 1.5/1.32

Tampa just flipped to a dog -1/+1 ....58% of cash on Falcons but tickets on Bucs at 68%. For some reason a ML IS NOT AVAILABLE you don't see that often it will most likely be later.

Bucs lost 2 close ones last season vs. Falcon when Cousins had his best games. I rememeber the thurs nite one because I had Tampa.

Bucs with Baker have been solid in openers 2-0 and some divisional revenge in order.

Falcon games are my nemesis so i thought i would get it out of my system early.


Looking at Packers and a few others.

GL !

 

Steelers +3.5 / Dolphins +7 / Raiders +8.5 .... 1/1.51

Crossing the ZERO with Steelers is bad form on a teaser but getting 3.5 is solid.

Could of Anchored with Tampa but Falcons involved.

 

Phins crush my teaser but them sucking so bad in the game sets up one of my strongest systems. It will be a fade on Indy next week and PLAY ON Broncos. this system is only good weeks 2-10. The fade teams went 1-4 ATS last year and the plays were posted in my other 2024 thread. Broncs will be a fav so I will need to grab the early line before it moves. The fade teams are 2-16 ATS since 2016

 

NFL 2-1, +2.14

CFB 0-2, -3.23

WK#2

Denver -2 -10 2.2/2

• 
  
  
  • Denver Broncos
    -2.0(-110)
    Point Spread
    Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts
    9/14/25, 3:05 PM
    
    Risk: 220.00
    Win: 200.00
    Ref.25092554652414

 

MNF

Minny at Chi has a total of 43.5 a tick down from 44 -45 depending on your book

When these teams meet in Chi, its usually an under 7o /11 u /1p since 06 and 1/4u last 5

When these teams meet for the first time each season it's also 7/11/1 to the under


But all that isn`t what I'm thinking about. Its the next matchup between these 2 teams on Nov 16.

Whatever happens tonight go opposite in next game. That trend is 13-5-1 and a 72% angle.

It goes back even further because I read about it in a Mark Lawrence PLAYBOOK magazine WAY BACK

I must admit some seasons I forget because I dont do many totals.


GL!

 

Sunday, Sep 21
1:00pm ET on CBS
Aaron Rodgers vs. Drake Maye

➤New era, same issues? The Steelers have struggled with the Patriots lately; they are 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS vs. New England dating back to 2013, with Pittsburgh’s last win outright on the road against the Patriots coming back in 2008, with a 0-4 SU/ATS mark since then.

➤Steelers are playing different this year. Pittsburgh’s first two games of the regular season have both gone over the total for the first time since 2018. So far, it has also turned in a 0-2 ATS start. The Steelers haven’t started a season 0-3 ATS since 2013.

➤Rodgers has made two career starts on the road in New England, and he is 0-2 SU/ATS – the Patriots and Colts are the only two places Rodgers is 0-2 SU and ATS or worse on the road.

➤We know the history behind Tomlin as an underdog, but what about Tomlin in night games, especially on the road? Since 2022, in road games with a spread of 4 or less, the Steelers are 14-5 SU, making Tomlin the most profitable coach on the moneline in that span.

➤Since the start of 2022, the Patriots are 3-30 SU and 5-27-1 ATS when trailing by 7 points or more at any point; both are the worst marks in the NFL. Just for reference, Mike Vrabel is now 3-16 SU and 5-13-1 ATS in this same spot as a head coach dating back to 2022.

➤In Drake Maye’s 14 starts last season for the Patriots, the over was 10-4 in those games, going over the total by 3.3 PPG. With totals of 40+, the over is 8-2 in Maye’s starts, both 4-1 at home and on the road.

➤Nothing new. For the 3rd time in the last five seasons, the Steelers open the second with consecutive games with under 75 rushing yards. They had 53 yards on 20 carries vs. the Jets and 72 yards on 21 carries vs. the Seahawks.

➤Through two weeks, Aaron Rodgers has 5 passing TDs and 0 interceptions. The only other seasons he’s opened with 5+ pass TD and no picks through two games: 2020 and 2011 – both years he won the MVP.

➤Rodgers needs to do enough for his defense. When the Steelers score 20 pts or more, they are 44-11 SU and 42-13 ATS since 2019, under that 20 mark, they are 15-35 SU/ATS.

➤Steelers have started slow in the first quarter since the start of last season, going 5-15 against the first quarter spread.

Game Forecast
From NFL Weather


PIT @ NE
Sun, 9/21 1:00pm ET
Forecast
68°F Dome

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Wind
6.87 SSW