Compensatory Pick Update and Outlook

OTC recently updated its projections now that all CFAs have been signed (Elijah Moore and JK Dobbins were offered June 1st tenders by the Browns and Chargers, causing a delay). Now that the books are closed, here's a summary on the thoughts and projections for next spring.

With the understanding that no one really knows the exact formula the NFL uses in determining compensatory picks, the wide potential variance comes down to the unusually high amount of bubble qualifiers: those whose new APY is close to the expected minimum to qualify as a CFA, believed to be around $3M this cycle. Things like snap share and AP honors figure in as well, but are normally less of an impact relative to contract APY. With the large bubble pool this year however, they could play a bigger role.

To contrast the potential variance in 2026, OTC presented a minimal and maximal projection for each team. For us, first is the max:



All CFAs we lost project to keep the value of the pick received with respect to the round (at worst, there's a chance that Wilson's 5th round comp slides to the fourth awarded pick of the round instead of the second, e.g.). The most comp picks any team can be awarded is four, so here Jackson and Harris would drop off. Now the minimum:



The odds of this happening are slim - Roberts and Williams would have to fail to be considered CFAs lost, while Echols and Ekuale considered CFAs gained - as OTC notes in their comments:

"The Steelers are the inverse of the Chargers in that it’s highly unlikely they’ll get anything less than the maximum of four comp picks. (Do note in the best case scenario that their last two 6th rounders would be disregarded.) But since they too have multiple players on the qualification bubble that they’re implicated in, they too are included for completion purposes."

Assuming that we receive the full allotment of four picks - a 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th - here are the current draft picks and values per Draftek's 2025 trade value chart. This assumes we and Dallas both finish in the same slot as last year, and uses the min/max average for comp pick position:

1.21: 800 ---- 800 total 1st round value
2.53: 370 -----370 total 2nd
3.76: 210
3.85: 165
3.97: 108 ---- 483 total 3rd
4.123: 49
4.135: 38.5 --- 87.5 total 4th
5.159: 27.8
5.174: 21.8 --- 49.2 total 5th
6.197: 12.2
6.209: 7.4 ---- 19.6 total 6th
7.237: 1 ------ 1 total 7th

Total trade value: 1813.3, or 1.21 + 1013.3

Now, trade values for early first round picks, and the equivalencies for us should we again land at the 21st overall and look to move up to acquire a QB:

1.1: 3,000 <---> 1.21 + 2,200
1.5: 1,700 <---> 1.21 + 900
1.10: 1,300 <--> 1.21 + 500
1.15: 1,050 <--> 1.21 + 250

As you can see, climbing into the top five isn't a reality from there - the Steelers project to have 12 picks, including five in the top 100, and yet the trade value of their entire draft still falls well short of what would be needed for that kind of move.

Future year picks are typically valued at a half to full round lower than the current year. With that in mind, there's a possible path to the 1.5 - 1.8 range at the cost of their 2025 1st, 2nd, and 3rd (#85), and 2026 1st. A steep price, but likely why Khan and Co. opted to stockpile comp picks - the picks themselves don't carry enough value to significantly push the needle in a trade involving top-of-the-first moves, but do still allow them two picks each in the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th in order to mine talent.

Ultimately, though, we won't begin to get a clear picture of what a possible move up the board entails until we see where this team lands, which clubs select ahead of them, and who is actually in play with next year's QB class.

 

I wonder what picking up Jaire Alexander would have cost them in term of Comp Picks?

 

Nothing. If a team releases a player they are not factored into the comp pick formula. That's why Slay is a non-factor.

Timing plays a role as well. FAs signed post-draft without receiving an offer from their former team do not count against the formula either.

 

HMMMM
WRONG FORUM NO?

 

Once again he didn't want to come to Pittsburgh, he wanted to go to Baltimore to play with Lamar.

 

Ultimately, though, we won't begin to get a clear picture of what a possible move up the board entails until we see where this team lands, which clubs select ahead of them, and who is actually in play with next year's QB class.[/QUOTE]

The entire point value looks good, until another team offers 2 of their 1sts in that year, a future 2nd, etc. and throws everything out of balance. The point being the draft market will set itself be each teams need, greed, desperation and in many cases stupidity. Does the comp picks give Omar some ammo, certainly, but in reality it gives more strategy in the lower rounds if a big move is made at the top. If you swap 1sts and give up your 2nd, you still have enough to trade around in the middle rounds to acquire the talent you desire.

 

1. I'm so amazed someone paid Moore that. And we will get a third for him.
2. I could see where we get a 3rd, 4th, and one or two 6th. All those guys projected sixth are meh.

 

Sure. What I showed was the cost that gets them at the table. From there you can't control how other teams play their hand, just play yours as best you can.

 

Can the Fields 4th rd comp pick become a 3rd if he plays the whole season?

 

No

 

Unlikely. After each season the NFL assigns points to, and then ranks, every player in the league - whether they are a pending a free agent or not. They receive points for their contract APY, snap share, and postseason awards (All-Pro or All-Conference awards). The main driver is the contract APY. Snap share gets them 25-100 points (they have to play in 25% of their unit's snaps to qualify for points here, maxing out at 100 if they play every down). Then I think it's 20 points for AP first-team honors, and 10 for All-Conference, but they can only be credited for one (whichever is higher).

After all the points have been calculated, the players are ranked. To get a third round comp value, the player then has to rank within the top 5% of the league. The cutoff for that would be around 87. OTC has Fields ranked at 112. So he would have to surpass 25 players with only snap share and award points to help him.

Being a QB helps in that he'll likely get the max for snaps as long as he stays healthy and is the starter, but that's a lot of ground to make up. Of course, I don't have the list of points and rankings, so I can't say how tight things are.

 

They would not have lost draft picks for doing something that dumb

Just humiliation

 

That doesn’t answer the question

 

What are you RAVING about now???

It was a simple question, that had a simple answer. No Comp calculation because Jaire Alexander was cut by his team.

 

You have been going on about Alexander to the Steelers for a while .