Welcome to the Steelers, Kaleb Johnson

That’s not exactly where I was going

Maybe there were big people chasing him and he ran around them

 

It is definitely illogical to hate the pick. We weren't going into the season with just Gainwell and Patterson behind Warren. We needed a young guy that we think can develop into a good player, and TBH most teams need two quality backs (there are so few elite backs), and Johnsons fits the bill. He doesn't do any one thing great, but he's a well rounded player. His floor is super high and he should easily be capable of 8-10 touches immediately.

We're essentially getting a back that is equally good or better than Najee at a fraction of the cost. There's so little downside

 

You mean Lance Zierlein - didn't you say recently you didn't care for his evals?

The more I've thought about it, the more I agree that a case can be made for the the relative difference between Johnson and backs that would be available later and that of other positions. I think Zierlein's take on Kaleb is on the harsh side, but I also look at others available at 83 and Parrish, the CB out of Kansas State, was a guy I liked.

Is the difference between Parrish and Kent > Johnson and, say, Martinez (who went just ahead of the Steelers first pick in the 7th)? That's a fair debate. I liked Martinez heading in (Zierlein didn't ), and while perhaps not as proficient in outside zone, is more versatile to finding and bullying through creases inside - he played in both gap and zone schemes between Oregon and Miami.

Parrish I liked a lot as a fast CB (4.35) with twitch that could play inside or out - my idea was slot this year. I know they've potentially got Bishop and Echols for that, but I go by never having enough corners.

 

Well Ok, I guess. Fraction of the cost? We could have had Najee wrapped up on a cheap extension for just under 7 mil. Anyone, including this kid, if any good, will get more than that. So cost is not the argument for taking him. What we get from him that we didn’t get from Najee is the narrative, and THAT remains to be seen.

However, it’s still illogical to hate on the pick cuz of need and where we took him. He’s a big frame and slow out the chute, but he’s got patience, finesse, and the ability to shed tacklers.

Again, we’ll see how that goes against NFL tacklers faster than himself.
Only time will tell but drafting him is a worthy gamble.

 

Really? I hated Gordon III as a prospect. Skattebo would've been interesting, but I think there's zero shot he's anything more than a super fun change of pace back that is a #2 in a tandem. I think Johnson could be everything we liked about Harris (what few things he did well), but with better burst and better vision. Even if he is nothing more than David Montgomery or James Conner (two pretty fair comps imo), that is a win. Both of those guys are solid, and we can split carries with an explosive back like Warren who can do it all.

 

I think you defending Warren to those dismissing the idea him becoming an RB1 lately is making you over-defensive here. I mean, where did I say he was going to come in and 'overshadow' Warren? What I expressed was my belief that the Steelers plan on him contributing this year after you questioned how he'd help if Rodgers decides to sign.

I don't know what to tell you on the pass protection. What I've seen of him was willingness with some inconsistent technique. Yet I've read scouting reports ranging from 'his technique needs significant refinement' to 'held up well when asked to pass protect, should continue to get better.' Most of these analysts study a few games of a player to get their read. Between different performances in different games (Johnson averaged only 2.4 pass-blocking snap per game last year) and their personal opinions, the reports can vary.

To give you an idea of how a lot of backs need refinement coming into the league, here are Draft Blitz's pass pro percentages for their top ten RBs:

Jeanty -- 48%
Hampton --52%
Johnson -- 44%
Henderson -- 51%
Sampson -- 61%
Judkins -- 39%
Skattebo -- 39%
Neal -- 49%
James -- 44%
Harvey -- 29%

Not stellar, not terrible. And even with Sampson you'll find the comment under his negatives, "pass protection recognition needs work - shows hesitation recognizing complex blitz packages and stunts."

We'll see how things progress once camp starts. While I haven't seen much on the maturity issues - what I did came mostly from Walter Football, but seemed to in part be gleaned from his coach praising the improvement he'd seen in Johnson's maturity over the last two years - he's obviously going to have to earn his way into playing time.

 

Warren is a better pass blocking NOW! That was not the case when he entered the league. Here is what Draft Blitz said when he can into the league.
"offers little in little in pass protection and pro technique in cut blocking, fails to do more than slow down blitzers by laying down in front of them".

KB has work to do in this area but has coaches as well as Warren to help him work on the issue>

 

What you are missing is that Johnson won't have an established back ahead of him, at least not an established lead back. Warren has never started an NFL game. He has carried the ball 15 times in a game once. He is an established pro, but not in the way Harris was going into Warren's rookie season. Harris had proven he could be a workhorse running back as a rookie, carrying the ball 307 times. He also caught 74 passes, giving him 381 total touches.

Warren hasn't come close to that. He has only 342 carries in three seasons, no more than 149 in any one season. That is one reason Johnson has the opportunity to take a larger role as a rookie than Warren played in 2022. It also makes a difference that he is a third-round pick, not an undrafted free agent. The team has more invested in Johnson than they had in Warren as a rookie.

 

I agree with your disagree

n’ at

 

If Johnson can be a David Montgomery or James Conner type I would be thrilled. I hope he can be that. I think he's gonna get met with contact before or at the LoS more with the Steelers than he ever did at Iowa. Will he be as productive in spite of that, I'm not so sure. His tape says he has much better vision than Najee, but that is no grand endorsement in my opinion. Harris was largely terrible in that category IMHO.
The big thing for Kaleb Johnson is his many runs of 20+ yards last year. If you watch those runs, on nearly all of them he does not or is barely touched. Is that because of superior vision and movement? I hope so, because he is not going to have that kind of room and holes to run through with this offense.

 

We also brought in a FB. Seems we keep these guys around yet they never see the field.

 

They paid Thomas-Jones a $30,000 bonus to sign here to play FB. That's the biggest bonus the Steelers have ever given to a non QB undrafted free agent. At 6'2" and 252 he has the size.

 

7 mil was apparently expensive for Harris' services since the market valued him at one year 5.2 million (not to mention that the team that signed him felt good enough about him to draft a RB in the first round).... plus Johnson will make like 2.7 million over his four year deal. We basically get him at 1/8 the cost (per year) of Najee and he has many of the same tools and abilities. Even if we only get Najee production from him (hoping for more), its still fine given the cost. That type of back won't get paid in the free market too much so we can either keep him around and draft Warren's replacement (in 3-4 years) or let him walk and sign/draft another guy.

I firmly believe the RB position is hyper inflated with solid runners. You really only need to extend guys that you think are studs (or do the receiving/blocking/3rd down aspect exceptionally well).

I get that his team sucked, but when his team was good, Ollie was good. When his team wasn't, he wasn't able to elevate himself or his squad. Doesn't bode well for his ability to be a difference maker at the next level. I also just don't like his style. Not a fan of big guys that run upright and smaller than they are. He kinda feels like a Mendenhall type. Not that Mendy was a bad player by any stretch. That is just the most I think he can get out of his ability.

Yeah, I know Skattebo is pretty polarizing. I could see him having a big year or two similar to Peyton Hillis, but I think he lacks too many tools to be an every down stud in the NFL. I could be wrong of course. But I think he will be exciting, even if he only ends up being an 8-10 carry a game guy in the league.

 

Gotcha.

To clarify my own view, I don't see Johnson's path coming anywhere close to the likes of Harris' first season. That was a monster - over 300 carries and 70 receptions. But I also went back and looked up Warren's rookie stats after your comment, and thought the 77 carries (5 carries/game average) was too light.

As for what it could be, they ran it 533 times under Smith last year and have a three-year average of 508. Assuming they stick closer to their total under Smith again and give Warren double the workload from his busiest year in 2023 (8 carries/game), that's 272 off the top - leaving 261. Gainwell has yet to have more that 84 attempts in a season, so it seems reasonable to me to start at around 150 (9 carries/game).

Where it goes from there, other factors like the ones you mention will determine. I think it's possible the team envisions a larger role, but agree that he'll have to prove himself in pass pro both to eliminate predictability and to keep Rodgers/Mason/whomever upright first.

 

I still would have preferred Dillon Sampson if we were picking RB in the 3rd round.