Wild Card Race: Let's be real...

Why does everyone think the Steelers won't at least get a wild card, if not take the division?

Like I said in another thread: I needed to look at standings.

AFC Divison Front-Runners (can be pretty sure these teams will take their divisions): Patriots(East), Broncos(West), Texans(South).

Of all the other AFC teams, only the Colts match the Steelers' record of 6-4. All other teams are 5-5 (Bengals only), or worse. There are several 4-6 teams: Chargers, Titans and the rest of the East (Jets, Bills and Dolphins).

I will only address these teams...

The Bengals are not going to make a run as they have to face: Raiders, Chargers, Cowboys, Eagles, Steelers, Ravens. Scratch them.

The Chargers will lose to Giants and Steelers. They're 8-8. Scratch them.

The Titans. Please. Scratch.

The Jets. Next.

The Bills. :roll:

The Dolphins.

The Steelers will face: Browns (away), Ravens (away), Chargers (home), Cowboys (away), Bengals (home), Browns (home). The Steelers will take the games at Heinz, and AT LEAST one away game. That puts them at 10-6, worst-case.

The Steelers will at least get a wild card.

 

I don't know how you can say we'll beat any team when we lost to Tennessee and almost lost to KC. We don't make any game an easy win, so there's just no guarantees. We should get a wild card though, I agree on that, but I think the division is out of reach at this point

 

(sorry Lizard72 - you said exactly the same thing in another thread - missed that one - I guess great minds think alike - or is it simple minds seldom differ?)

Wild card perhaps - mainly because the AFC sucks terribly - but division as you state in your opening line is such a long stretch it's scary - we already have 4 AFC losses compared to the Ravens 1. Even if through some gigantic miracle we manage to beat them at their home in two weeks - we will still be a game behind them and they will still only have 2 AFC losses to our 4. I only bring up the AFC losses because it's possible we both win out in our division and (if we beat them) each end up 5-1. And even if we manage to catch them (they lose one more than we win) - they will still most likely have fewer AFC losses and would take the division.

If we get a wild card spot (still above average chance) looks like it may be a three-peat visit to Denver the first playoff game.

 

The Steelers are good at home. I give them those games. They dropped a home game to the Ravens and I'm saying that's enough to light a fire under them to protect home turf.

They'll take at least one away game. Looking at the opponents they face, in their remaining schedule, 4 wins is not unreasonable (even if I'm wrong about home vs away games).

Ravens can lose to Chargers, Steelers, Broncos and Giants. This puts the division within reach as long as the Steelers get it together, now.

Just my opinion. This board has been nothing but doom and gloom, all season. Yet, the Steelers are sitting in one of the best positions to at least grab a wild card.

So, what gives?

 

Or the Texans. Wait and see. No matter how this goes, now, the Steelers would probably end up playing in Denver. The only way that doesn't happen is if Broncos manage to completely fall on their faces, in the next 6 weeks. Not likely. But, by then, let's hope Troy, AB and Ben are back. And that Mendenhall has found his rhythm. And Wallace stops dropping the d*mned ball!

 

You forgot about the Raiders game fiasco. And add an injured QB, AB and a fumble prone wallace.

 

you are very quick to write off all those other teams that are chasing the Steelers. lets not forget that the Steelers are down to their 3rd qb.

the Bengals are starting to look like a playoff contender.

the Steelers already lost to the Titans so lets hope they dont end up with the same record.

as for the Jets, Dolphins and Bills. i would say it would be a stretch for them to over take the Steelers.

now the Chargers are very interesting. they still face the Steelers, Ravens and Bengals and the Jets. they will have a lot to say as far as the playoff race goes.

im not writting off the chance at the division just yet. the Ravens have a tough schedule still. they have the Chargers, Steelers, Redskins, Broncos, Giants and Bengals. unfortunately they get both the Broncos and Giants at home. they will go no worse than 3-3 and finish atleast 10-6.

that means the Steelers probably have to go 5-1 to win the division since their record in the AFC is so bad. if Ben was healthy i would say that is very doable. unfortunately that is not the case and i just dont see how they will win 5 of 6.

a wildcard is much more realistic. they should be able to go 3-3 and i hope 9 wins are enough. if they can beat the Browns Sunday and if by some miracle they get Ben back for the next Ravens game than that would probably change everything.

 

I agree, unless something miraculous happens, such as Batch winning all games he starts and the Ravens lose to Giants and Denver we are looking at a Wild Card proposition. I say we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. The playoffs (don't talk about playoffs) are 6 weeks away. Think back 6 weeks, this team had just lost and was 2-3. We all thought they were terrible. Fast forward to half time versus KC. Game wasn't going well, but we all believed we would win and have a darn good chance to beat the Ravens. We did beat KC and we gave the Ravens a darn good shot. Had Ben not been injured, many of us believe we would have won. Right now, however, I'm not feeling very confident. I'm counting on a miracle (perhaps Batch to Plax combo) that keeps us in position to capitalize should the Rats stumble.

 

right shaner.. i dont often agree with you but you are right on.. and to add to yoru list we lost to the raiders as well... so no game is a gimme without ben... to me we have to hold teams to 13 or less points now to win.. even holding them to 13 last week we still lost.. with out crappy ST we are in trouble giving up TDs.. run backs and field position.. so 10-6 is certainly NOT a given... thats finishing 4-2 and i doubt we do that if ben is not back.. i think we will finsih 9-7 or 10-6 IF charlie can remain healthy at QB till ben gets back .. if charlie goes down so does the season and out next stop here is in draft room boards.

HINES

 

Winning the division will be very difficult. The Ravens have a two game lead, they have the next game vs Pit at home, and they control (though have not clinched) all the tiebreakers. The Ravens are 4-0 in the divsion vs 1-1 for Pit, they are 7-1 in confervence vs 3-4 for Pit. Common opponenets will not a tie breaker for Pit and Balt as both teams have split vs their uncommon opponents (Balt W vs NE, loss vs Hou; Pit W vs NYJ, loss vs TN). I ran the 2048 possible scenarios for the Raven and Pit for the rest of the season, and the the Ravens win the division in over 90% of them.

But a Wild is very, very possible. The Steelers have a game on Cincy, and everyone else is 4-6. And the 4-6 teams play each other a lot
The Jets play TN, Buffalo and SD
The Bills play Miami again
Cincy play SD.
If the Steelers beat Cincy or SD, they essentially elimate them.

Even at 9-7, the Steelers have a very, very good shot a WildCard. But barring a Ravens collapse or an extremely strong finish by the Steelers, the division is a long shot.

 

I just don't agree with you guys. The division title is most likely a long shot, at this point. But all the talk about losing to Raiders and Titans may have to be reconsidered. The Steelers were a totally different team when that crap happened. And those issues have been corrected to a large extent. The Steelers aren't perfect, but they are getting better. Injuries are hampering the teams progress, but there's plenty of football left to play.

Only the Bengals (5-5) and Chargers (4-6) are in position to threaten the wild card race (and the Chargers only because Rivers has been known to go on December runs) and I don't see either of those teams catching the Steelers when you look at the strength of these three teams remaining schedules.

I posted this thread based on other threads where people posted they didn't think we'd get a wild card. And I think that's insane.

Division? Maybe not. Wild Card. Almost certain.

 

Good post and analysis.

 

i don't know what will happen , what i know is that for the second year in a row we have to fight without our qb and best team player . it's unfair

 

What I also find crazy is all the new rules for player safety but many teams were without their starting QB this past week. Other teams are suffering injuries, also. Steelers do seem to be more so...

We need a more durable backup QB and stronger O-Line to protect QBs.

 

That was what I was going for in my thread. I don't have all the skills you do though. I just looked at it and made the quick numbers game and it didn't add up to a division win unless the Ravens fall apart. Once again Tomlin acts like there are no key games in the season and no one in the organization does these projections. Hell they're all still talking like its a wrap they can get the division.

 

whatever happened to one game at a time? im just sayin!