Steelers Showing Early Interest in Liberty QB Malik Willis

The point was more to the fact that trading up past the Saints is a very real possibility since they are in the market for a QB and being so close that the draft capital to move past them wouldn’t require a lot. Since the Steelers don’t know who they would take, would they gamble that they won’t take the one they want? I’m sure they will be thinking about Cincy and how they stole Williams out from under them.

And Elvis, thats your evaluation of Willis, Saints may feel he is much better than Hill, which I think he is.

 

I’m being reasonable and rational, and looking back objectively at the past as an indicator of how uncommon it is for a Qb to transition from college star to NFL franchise QB. As a baseline, 1st round QBs have a success rate of well under 50%. I looked at 2010 -2019 first round QB selections and placed them into success or failure buckets. Of the 30 QBs drafted in the 1st round over that period, I scored 12 successes and 18 failures, and I was really generous by calling Goff, Wentz, Bridgewater, Tannehill and Bradford successes. I could have realistically called 7 successes and 23 failures. It’s easy to look back in retrospect and say that the guys who didn’t work out weren’t good to begin with, but the reality is that there are just as many concerns on film with the current crop of potential 1st round QBs if you watch complete games. If any of these guys fail, it will be very easy to go back to their college tape and explain why. Nobody in this group has as much good college film as guys like Mariota, Winston, Wentz, etc. Yet those guys have generally failed in the league, and they were certainly bad picks for the teams that drafted them. History repeats itself in the QB draft. The majority of these 1st round QB prospects will likely be either backups or out of the league entirely in 5 years. It doesn’t mean that none of them are worth 1st round picks. First round QBs have a low success rate as a baseline, but you need a QB. However it’s important for teams to go into it with eyes open and understand that the potential downside is actually pretty significant. In particular, it generally hasn’t worked out well for the teams who have traded huge draft capital to move up.

 

It’s also an evaluation of how well Pickett fits their environment.

 

Reasonable and rational, ok, this is where I get off. Fact is, you nor anyone else has a clue how these guys will do in the pros.

They play half their games in domes, what about the other half? What about playoff games? Hill is over 30, also.

 

Come on man… I’m getting the sense that you really don’t like when logic and reason are added to the equation. My point is that drafting a QB is a crap shoot even when he checks most or all of the boxes. Case in point is Mariota. He had all of the physical traits to be a perfect QB prospect, and he was ridiculously successful in college: 115 TDs to 14 interceptions in 3 seasons; 42 TDs vs 4 interceptions plus 15 rushing TDs his last season. He still didn’t make it because the weakness that he showed on tape didn’t improve. That weakness was reading the field and working through progressions, absolute must-haves at the NFL level. I’m not saying that all of this year’s QBs will fail. What I’m saying is that the tape doesn’t lie. The WHOLE tape, not just the “hero” plays. The odds are against a 1st round QB succeeding. They just are. The history is indisputable. The more deficiencies in their game, the more risky they are. I’m not saying to never draft a QB in the 1st round. I’m saying beware a guy who checks fewer boxes than others.

 

Naa, it’s passive aggressive comments I have a problem with. What you call logic, reason and rational is really just your opinion.

Now see, Mariota is someone I was never sold on, he never seemed to have that “it” quality to me. Two people can watch film and come away with completely different evaluations. Case in point, this is reminding me of Diontae and all the flak I took for pimping him before he stepped foot on an NFL field. I was told repeatedly by you and others that he wouldn’t be able to handle press coverage or get separation against NFL corners which I found to be an insane take because I saw a guy with a great first step off the line and excellent route running to still get open at the NFL level.

And that’s evaluating a much easier position, QB’s is the hardest or right up there with corners anyway. What makes QB’s so hard is the stuff that @S.T.D talks about, the mental aspect of the game. Can they go from the basic arithmetic of college defenses to calculus of the NFL. It’s not sitting back and going through progressions, how many college QB’s even have to do that? its being able to recognize what defenses are doing, can he “read” as was caught on a mic’d up segment on the NFL when an opposing defense were saying “he can’t read, he can’t read” in regards to Hurst. Watching 3 or 4 YouTube videos isn’t going to tell you that. Comparing him to other more successful college QBs means jack**** because each individual is different when they reach the pros.

We’ll see who’s right.

 

Not bad for being so inaccurate

 

I’ve been making my points aggressively. No passiveness there. I’m not going to even try to unpack your last response because there’s nothing there that actually refuted what I’ve been saying. I’m also not sure what lumping me into a conversation on DJ 3 years ago that I’m pretty sure I wasn’t part of has to do with the fact that drafting a QB is a high risk proposition (which is easily confirmed by looking at recent history). You’re right about exactly 1 thing in that post: we’ll see who’s right.

And for the record, if we do draft Willis I will root like hell for him to be great. Heck, if he doesn’t go to a rival I’ll root for him anyway based on how likable he’s been in interviews. He seems like a good guy. I just don’t see the tape matching the hype.

 

What you didn’t see was that the first time he just took off running with the ball before they told him he had to throw it. Just messing with you BF. I don’t think accuracy is a big issue for him, though he’s not the most accurate thrower in this class.

 

Sure, as long as one of them doesn’t tip over spontaneously while the ball is in the air.

 

It’s an accuracy drill. Pretty sure no one else got that close.

 

Tough crowd here… I thought this one was pretty funny, but maybe it was too subtle? Hint.. who falls down when the ball is in the air?

 

From 30 yards away and apparently not as easy as you think it is. And the idea is to drop it inside the bucket, not just hit it.

 

Actually I’m also right about two people being able to watch the same film and come away with different evaluations. That was the whole point of the DJ comparison. The tape doesn’t lie but people can have different interpretations of what it is saying.

 

Ok fine, you get that one too. That happens at the NFL team level too , obviously. Part of the reason why 1st round quarterbacks fail well over 50% of the time (really more like 2/3 of the time). Teams see what they like, and think that they can fix the rest. Failure to develop the young QB properly is the other biggest reason.