Just Say “No” to the Franchise QB

https://www.dailynorseman.com/platform/amp/2021/5/30/22273672/the-great-quarterback-fallacy-part-i

The article above does a pretty cool job of dispelling the myth of the Franchise QB.

It compares the GOAT in Brady with the commoner in Kirk Cousins and explains the data behind why the 2 QBs are so similar stat-wise and why the Brady team wins more.

From what I gathered after the quick skim, is that as a whole, investing in the Team pays more dividends than the investment in a Franchise QB.

Take a quick read and let us know your thoughts and how you see it.

 

nothing wrong with having both. you can look at GB and KC and see that it takes the whole package to make things happen for a team. one guy can't do it all and make it work. it's not just players either. staff, front office, players and coaches. the whole deal has to be on the same page.

 

Look no further than Bill Cowher's earlier years to see what happens when you don't have a franchise QB. Or better yet, Noll in the 80's.

 

11 times or 20% of the time, the winning Super Bowl QB hasn't ended up being a HOF QB. I am including Brady, Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, and Russell Wilson as future HOFs. Granted the Super Bowl wins lead to HOF status, but half of the losing Super Bowl QBs also end up in the HOF. Basically 67% of the Super Bowl QBs end up in the HOF. Playing without one gives a team a steeper hill to climb. If the Steelers have learned anything, it should be do not wait 20 years to draft their next HOF QB.

 

Anyone who tries to argue that Kirk Cousins is as good a QB as Tom Brady shouldn't be writing about football.

 

The Steelers also failed to recognize the talent of HOF QBs that they had on their roster in the 50s in Unitas and Dawson. The NFL is a QB driven league. Lady luck plays a big part also.

 

Don’t forget Marino the Johnny U statue is right down the road from me.

 

Football is a team game. Any "franchise" QB I guarantee you is surrounded by other talent. Its just they get all the credit (and blame) for a team's performance. Without Blitzburgh, and Holmes, and Ward, and Miller, and a host of others, Ben would not be considered a hall of fame QB.

 

I agree. The article gives a decent argument in supporting that.

I think the concept of a franchise QB is a bit misleading. Essentially it’s used to describe QBs who are long term successful. That’s pretty much impossible without a solid team around them.

 

That’s not the argument though. The writer is saying Brady and Cousins have very similar QB ratings over the last 5 years. But in games where their rating drops below 90, Brady still wins far more than Cousins.

So the writer argued this is one case for saying teams carry the QB as much as the other way. He’s not saying Cousins is in Brady’s league.

It could also be argued that Brady can play through a bad performance and make the throws when they’re needed, which passer rating wouldn’t catch.

 

Wow, great breakdown. Thanks Yancey!

 

Interesting tidbit I learn recently. No quarterback who's annual salary is 30 million per that particular year has ever won a Super Bowl.

 

Not many non-great QBs win the Super Bowl though?

The big thing is trying to win before the qb gets to his second contract, after that it makes it difficult.

 

Elite team with average qb or elite qb with average team… who you got

 

Right! Which in my mind says to invest in the lines and work out. If you draft a stud QB, all the other pieces are already in place. I’f you win a SB, great! But don’t fall into the trap of mega dollar contracts for QBs. Trade them away at maximum value. Give me the Elite Team over the elite individual.

 

No kicker making $30million has ever won the SB either.

Not that many $30m QB's out there so I have a hard time linking this to anything meaningful. Good Qb's win more....that's just a fact. Sure they need a supporting cast, good coaches, and luck but there absolutley is a link to good QB's and winning. I think you need the other tangibles to consistently win a SB's and it's rare to get everything to fall into place. I think of the Steelers, Cowboys, 49er's, and patriots (maybe even the Bills) as the only true dynasties and all of them had good QBs, good coaches, and varying amounts of luck. My personal opinion is it takes a good QB along with a good defense.

The patriots are really the only team to buck that trend a little bit but I think that's a fluke...and I think the Patriots had better defenses than their stats really gave them credit for. I also think them cheating had a lot to do with this.

 

Good post! The Bills had everything but the luck!

 

But what makes a "good" QB? Probably an offensive line. Good receivers. Other than that you need to look at passing accuracy, and ability to read defenses. But without the other parts, a "good" QB will get lost in the poor performance of the other parts.

 

that's because you begin to be a team of ONE (1).

SEA sucks now, b/c Wilson eats up too much money. I'd love the owners to nail down a salary cap on the QB position. the league would be better with that in place.

 

Let's look at the last 20 Super Bowl winners

Brady 7
BEN 2
ELI 2
Mahomes 1
Brees 1
Peyton 2
Rodgers 1

R Wilson 1

Flacco 1
Foles 1
Brad Johnson 1


So depending on your thoughts on Wilson. Franchise 17(85%) others 3(15%)

Of 20 losing QBs. Half were franchise guys.

So can you win it all without one? Sure... but the odds are against it.

HACK

 

But isn’t Brady (who accounts for 7 of those Championships) an outlier? Can we toss him out?

 

Take Brady out and it is still 10/13 which is better than 75%.

 

Guys....




Having "the guy" does not automatically make a team a Super Bowl contender. What it does allow is for that team to be far more successful than without. Realistically speaking, a Franchise QB allows a team to be a playoff contender every year due to the level of great to excellent consistency that QB provides them.



For me, labeling any QB "Franchise QB" is a bit redundant due to the current context and supposed "criteria" of the term. Not so much because the term has lost its meaning but said term is overused... WAY TOO MUCH. For example, I believe we all can come to the agreement that the likes of Patrick Mahomes is a legit Franchise Caliber Quarterback. Yes, 2021 has not been kind to him but underestimate Mahomes at your own risk. He is still capable of coming up in the clutch when his team needs him to be. Justin Herbert on the other hand? Having another great season but need to see this level of consistency not only continue but also pick up; doubly so in the playoffs. Quarterbacks who have shown to win games in not just one score Fourth Quarter Games but also Playoff Games, on a consistent basis, are what separates good QBs from great ones. Granted, Herbert has doubled his comeback totals from his Rookie Season and has gotten better. However, this needs to continue for him.



Other QBs like Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield?! Lamar sadly has not shown he can overcome tremendous odds nearly as much as Herbert. For example, Lamar has eight total comebacks in the NFL Regular Season. Very good on paper... but this is occurred through four seasons (technically three but let us account for 2018 as well). The most he has had in a season is actually this one; 4 total in 2021. Compare that to Herbert; 2 in his Rookie Season and 6 in year two. This is not accounting for playoffs either as Lamar has not shown enough consistency in the playoffs; 1-3 as a whole. Baker is even worse; 7 total. Again, very impressive.... with
one MAJOR ISSUE here!! Four of the seven comebacks were in his Rookie Season..... four!! The natural inclination of a Franchise QB is great progression from year one to two. Since 2018 though... Baker has only three comebacks... from 2019 to 2020. That is it. There is none to speak of this season.



Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray can also be accounted for here but their shortcomings are actually of the same component; availability. Yes, their talents and abilities at the position are not to be questioned. Their availability leaves much to be desired; doubly so in Murray's case. Joe messed up his Pinkie bad, so it will be interesting to see how that affects him moving forward. Finally, I am not adding any 2021 QB (Mac Jones included) or any established player as that information is either inconclusive to blatantly obvious.





In short?! A Franchise QB is a special talent that has shown that they can win games, no matter what the odds within any situation, for an extended period of time in a consistent fashion. One year wonder QB's need not apply here as such miracle seasons will only go so far. The ability to win is an inherent trait; it is either possessed by these QBs or it is not. No exceptions. That said, American Gridiron Football truly is the "Ultimate Team Sport" for a reason; no one player, no matter how great, can dominate alone. For even someone like Tom Brady, I can make the argument that, without the likes of Ty Law, Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour and Willie Mcginest, the Tom Brady that we know of today likely does not exist in the same way currently.




For reference?! See QBs like Tom Brady, Big Ben, Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, etc. who had great players like Ronnie Lott, Troy Polamalu, Mean Joe Green, Deion Sanders (Troy Aikman people!!) and a lot more players that can be applied here.

 

Previous franchise QB. That title is a little out of date.