Using Clear Optics: How To Guess the Steelers 2021 1st Round Pick

Hello everyone! Ask here and today we will be discussing how the possibilities of some players are higher to be selected by the Steelers. To that end, we will go over the historical significance of how to exactly zero in on who could possibly be picked, the major avenues that the team often goes to and then give a list for the 2021 season to narrow down the list using a finite criteria that the Steelers have employed for some time now. As always and, before we begin, a disclaimer:


These written statements by the author do not reflect nor are shared opinions of members of TheSteelersFans Message Board, Staff Members and/or Site Administrator.



Bringing the House; Laying The Groundwork:



Let us travel back in time; the 2009 NFL Draft. Fresh off the Super Bowl 43 win, the Steelers did have some questions heading into the 2009 season. To repeat as Champions, while not much needed changing, quality depth was a sure fire aspect of the team. That said, Alex Mack was widely mocked to the Steelers during that time period. However, even then, it was becoming more and more of a foregone conclusion that Alex Mack would not be available to the Steelers by that point. So, what did the Steelers do at that point in time?! Draft a player from Missouri known as Evander Hood; "Ziggy" as we would end up knowing him. That said, did the Steelers send the house to Ziggy's Pro Day?!..... Well.... not exactly. They did send John Mitchell and Mike Tomlin was also in attendance but even then.... that is not entirely what one would constitute as "Bringing the House". Sadly, while Ziggy Hood would prove to have a productive career, for the most part during his time in Pittsburgh, he was mainly a rotational piece until his final two seasons in 2011 and 2012. Shortly after that though, Ziggy Hood would not be in a Steelers Uniform again. Now, heading into the 2010 NFL Draft, Pittsburgh had altered their approach this time around; bring everyone. The Pouncey Twins were the big prizes for the Steelers as not obtaining a high quality Offensive Lineman in 2009 continued their woes during that season; 8-8 as a result. To that end, Pittsburgh stepped up their efforts during the 2010 Pro Day Circuit with the addition of possibly making Maurkice Pouncey a Steelers player. That year, four contributors would emerge from that class; Pouncey, Jason Worilds, Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown (more specifically Pouncey and Worilds but Sanders and Brown were both observed by both then Wide Receivers Coach Scottie Montgomery and Mike Tomlin). From that point on, casting a wider net to better their chances of drafting good players meant that the team would have to expend said resources via man power to do so. That said, expending said manpower must be done with precision and care as merely sending the heavy hitters like Colbert and Tomlin to Schools that do not feature nearly as much overall NFL Talent would be a waste.



Since 2010 though, every 1st Round pick by the Steelers has had a major theme; the heavy hitters within the Steelers Front Office will all converge within the same place; a major sign that the team has immense interest in the prospect themselves. For a much more recent, comprehensive viewpoint of this; let us take a look at who the Steelers brought to players selected by the team dating back to 2017 then concluding with the *** 2020 *** season shall we?!



2017: Trent Jordan (T.J.) Watt:


Head Coach Mike Tomlin


General Manager Kevin Colbert


Outside Linebackers Coach Joey Porter





2018: FeDerius Terrell Edmunds:


Head Coach Mike Tomlin


General Manager Kevin Colbert


Defensive Coordinator Keith Butler


Inside Linebackers Coach Jerry Olsavsky







2019: Devin Bush Jr:



Head Coach Mike Tomlin


General Manager Kevin Colbert


Defensive Coordinator Keith Butler


Special Teams Coordinator Danny Smith


Inside Linebackers Coach Jerry Olsavsky


Tight Ends Coach James Daniel


Senior Defensive Assist Teryl Austin


Player Personnel Coordinator Dan Rooney Jr.






**** Honorable Mention ****



2020: Minkah Fitzpatrick (Not necessarily a true 1st Round Pick but was traded via one.)


Head Coach Mike Tomlin


General Manager Kevin Colbert


Defensive Coordinator Keith Butler


Inside Linebackers Coach Jerry Olsavsky


Defensive Line Coach Karl Dunbar






As shown above, this list not only gives us a clear overall viewpoint of not just who the Steelers bring in but also who else; namely the Coordinators and Position Coaches. In addition, this also gives us further clarity in the likelihood of how interested the Steelers are interested in the player. For example, in addition to the aforementioned people mentioned for Devin Bush Jr.'s Pro Day, there were another four reported people on hand during Michigan's Pro Day; 11 total from the Steelers Front Office. As Art Rooney II said about their interest in Devin Bush Jr.;


"This is the worst kept secret in the history of the NFL Draft. That said, we hid nothing about it when we first scouted him back in 2018 and were fortunate that we were able to acquire him."




Now clearly, every NFL Team, rather, every stable NFL Franchise, does this in order to maintain their competitive rosters. However, said teams often have their favorite NCAA College Campuses to drop in on for scouting that they do not hide at all. Pittsburgh is no exception. Again though, this list must be narrowed even more so to determine which colleges the Steelers send more Front Office Personnel than others. Let us continue onward to find this answer shall we?!





More Talent Means Higher Percentage of Being Selected:



Now again, let us use our base year, 2017, to determine how often the Steelers brought both Kevin and Mike to an NCAA FBS 1 Pro Day. Keep in mind that this list will be done based on numbers as opposed to merely listing each College (more on this in a bit). Furthermore, this list sadly only goes up to 2019 as 2020 is inconclusive due to COVID 19. In addition, 2020 is essentially answered from using the 2018 Pro Day values (or value) already given.




Pro Days in which both Tomlin & Colbert attended:


2017: 4

2018: 7

2019: 4





Now, let us narrow down this list even further; adding in a Position Coach:





Pro Days in Which Tomlin, Colbert and a Position Coach attended:


2017: 2

2018: 5

2019: 3





We are nearing the end here! However, let us list off the most extreme of circumstances; adding in the Coordinator in addition to the aforementioned Personnel listed before we go.






Pro Days in which Tomlin, Colbert, a Position Coach and a Coordinator Attended:


2017: 0

2018: 3

2019: 2




Now, let us use these numbers to add the total values here of each category to get an general understanding of interest the Steelers have on a player within the positions they need:



Total Values of Interest:


2017: 6

2018: 15

2019: 9






With all of this information now gathered here, a pattern now can take shape regarding where exactly the Steelers go. Recall back when I stated that I would not be using each colleges name?! Well, here is the major reason for it. During this research, I ended up finding the Steelers often go to the following schools; usually featuring a major member of the Steelers Front Office; Brandon Hunt and Phil Kreidler among the biggest voices but also include others like Dan Colbert to Dan Rooney Jr. Now, colleges that qualify for this list must have been visited by said major member of the Front Office from 2017-2019. No skipping any years!!!



They are as follows;



Alabama

Ohio State

LSU

Notre Dame

Georgia

Clemson

Michigan

*** Penn State ***




Here in lies the list and there are some notable omissions that I initially thought would get in. Wisconsin was the biggest one for me as Pittsburgh's interest soured in 2019. Oklahoma State is another. Penn State though was little surprise to me; missing out on both 2017 and 2019. That said, this team is a bit of an outlier as Pittsburgh has far more access to the Nittany Lions and therefore does not have to expend much to see their program given their location. Either way, the main core focus is the same here; the Steelers often can be found within one of these places; Alabama, Notre Dame, LSU, Michigan and Ohio State historically receiving the most attention. Regardless, we now have a template to work with given these conditions. Now it is time to wrap it all up here to compile a list with the aforementioned finite rules mentioned in the beginning!




Narrowing Down the Suspects!!! Who's Who In 2021:



Now, before we begin this, I would like to preface this in stating the obvious; good teams draft the position over player while great teams draft the player over the position (exceptions apply here but are seldom in nature). Keep this in mind as this list is going to get quite interesting. In addition, I am only naming players who fit the Steelers General Criteria for drafting in the Colbert Era. They are as follows:

1. Must be between the ages of 20-23. Dating back to 2007, the average age of Steelers First Picks are 21.75; T.J. Watt and Jarvis Jones being the outliers.
2. Must be an Underclassmen. Bud Dupree is the only Senior ever selected in the First Round in the Colbert Era.
3. Must be from a Power 5 Conference. In the Kevin Colbert Era, Pittsburgh has only selected one non Power 5 Conference Player in the First Round (Big Ben).
4. Must be an elite athlete or showcase elite athleticism. There are some outliers though; Jarvis Jones being the biggest one.
5. NFL Bloodlines: Since 2017, every Steelers First Round Pick under Colbert has been related to an NFL Player in some capacity (Minkah is the exception here as of current).

Having these important information in what I call the "Rule of Five", let us then use the Colleges from our previous entry to nail down some of the possible candidates for the Steelers in play at pick 24:



Alabama: Najee Harris, Mac Jones (have to include but not happening), Alex Leatherwood

Georgia: Tyson Campbell, Eric Stokes, Azeez Oljuari

LSU: None

Notre Dame: Jeremiah Owusu Koramoah

Ohio State: Justin Fields (not happening I know but must list him here as he fits the criteria here), Barron Browning

Clemson: Travis Etienne (Trevor Lawrence would fit here but is, like Justin Fields, is not happening)

Michigan: Kwity Paye, Jalen Mayfield

Penn State: Micah Parsons (unlikely but see Justin Fields explanation), Jayson Oweh


*** Florida State: Asante Samuel Jr. (Fits the "Rule of Five" mentioned above)! ***




However, this year, thanks to COVID-19, the proverbial monkey wrench has been thrown into the equation. Here are some of the possible players from these colleges also in play for pick 24 (confirmed Zoom Meeting via SteelersDepot).


Virginia Tech: Caleb Farley, Christian Darrisaw

Tulsa: Zaven Collins

Miami (The U): Jaelen Phillips



Now in comes the toughest aspect yet; finding out the "Who's Who" among these selected players. Now, the general rule of thumb is to identify your teams weaknesses. As it stands currently, Running Back is clearly the biggest one for the Steelers right now. Next up, Offensive Tackle as it is unclear if Chukwuma Okorafor is within the Steelers future plans. Next up, the "linebacker" position would be a solid bet and I am using this term lightly as Jeremiah Owusu Koramoah is a lot less of a Linebacker and more in the mold of what I would classify as a DPW (Defensive Personnel Weapon). Others like Barron Browning classify with this here. Lastly, Cornerback is a dark horse need as having three high tier Corners in today's league is a must. With this out of the way, we now have an even more finite selection. With this out of the way, let us narrow down our selections by Position.


Running Backs: Najee Harris, Travis Etienne

Off Ball Linebackers: Micah Parsons, Barron Browning, Zaven Collins

Corners: Caleb Farley, Asante Samuel Jr., Eric Stokes, Tyson Campbell

Offensive Tackles: Alex Leatherwood, Jalen Mayfield

Quarterbacks: NHAA (Not Happening At All)

DPW: Jeremiah Owusu Koramoah.

EDGE: Kwity Paye, Jaelen Phillips, Jayson Oweh, Azeez Oljuari






Our short list is now complete everyone! Here in this humble writers opinion are the contestants who are in contention for pick number 24! I understand that some players sadly did not make the list like Greg Newsome Jr or even someone like Trevon Moehrig. That said, I am only using the most accurate data possible given Kevin Colbert's Draft Tendencies. Furthermore, I cannot definitely say where most of these players even go; save for the obvious. Overall though, while I will not deign to guess who among these men will be the pick, I can say with the upmost certainty that one of these players from this list will be. Now, before we go, we of course, have some final notes to take care of. Lets get to it!!




Final Notes:



Oh boy.... I can imagine opinions will fly in this piece. Mock draft season is reaching critical overload but some want to obtain a player who sadly is not either within or on the Steelers Radar. I do understand how frustrating it can be everyone. Please understand though that, while having some blemishes on his resume, Kevin Colbert has had far more successes than failures to his contemporaries; doubly so since 2000. Ultimately and, as "defeatist" as some will make my next statement out to be (it is not), the NFL Draft, at the end of the day, is the ultimate "Powerball Ticket". Sometimes you hit the "Mega Millions" and other times you get duds. No amount of scouting, game tape, resources, time, man power and coaching can change some of these players. Be it scheme, lack of availability due to injury, selfish decisions, a combination of of the three or in seldom cases all three, the Draft is not an exact science. The tools that are used however can decrease some of the negatives; namely in character, conduct and athletic ability. Measuring aspects like "heart", "it factor", "clutch" and other synonymous terms are impossible and therefore require luck to get a hit on them. This is not accounting that, even assuming said player has one or, in the best of cases, multiple to all of these luck traits that the general rules like availability or schematic fit still apply.




At the end of the day though, we as fans can have as much fun and creativity with these mocks and Big Boards as we want. For the Steelers?! MUCH. DIFFERENT. STORY. Every pick counts; starter, depth or otherwise. Missing on one is not good. Miss more and the results amplify. Miss on an entire class and that has the potential of setting back a team by years; how often those teams miss determines how long they set themselves back. For the Steelers under Colbert, very seldom has Colbert whiffed on a Draft Class; 2008 being his most infamous one. That said, I think it is safe to say that, outside of some questionable picks from the 2010s with the 2008 Class, since 2000, out of the 32 NFL Teams, teams like Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Arizona, New York Jets, Oakland (now Las Vegas) Raiders and others would take that problem given their futility. In short?!




Be thankful for what you have. You never know what you truly have until it is gone. For SteelersNation, that time is rapidly approaching the same. Who knows how much longer Kevin Colbert wants to do this; another rebuild on the horizon doubly so?! Never mind that though as what is his succession plan?! Only way to find out is to stay tuned!!





Closing Statements:



"With the 24th Pick Overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select...... (insert name here)".



We all have plenty of time between now and then to debate and discuss who that player is. That said, using the tools given is a good way to downsize the great net that the Steelers often cast during the NFL Pro Day Circuit. Once you do that, the answers to whom the Steelers will select becomes clear. One aspect to always remember though everyone;



"Pick the player and not the position"





As always everyone, thank you for reading! I hope you liked it and I hope you enjoyed! I will have my Top 32 Big Board out (FINALLY) for the 2021 Class this Weekend but it is the final variant. Soon after, my Mock Draft will go up but this one will be far more simplified than in years past. No over analysis and no "storybook explanation" either. What you see is what you will get on that end.



Once again, thank you all for your time and until next time, this is AskQuestionsLater saying so long and stay safe!!!




Go Steelers!!!!!

 

AQL... Awesome piece, and very in depth...Very interesting and quite a few players I'd have no problem if we took them!

 

very nice aql.

now, i have a few things to add. covid 19. how has it changed how and who we send to these pro days?

TE, is a position you didn't show as a needed position. i do believe there is a lot more need there then is being given with ebron only signed for this year and very little behind him.

all these futures picks on the offensive line. collins, haeg, cowerd, leglue. lesser aquired but were priority picks of coyle and walton and jarron jones. that is a lot of offensive tackles especially if you add okrafor. this is exactly how we got banner. he was just like a few of these guys. AV was just like a few of these guys. feiler was just like a few of these guys. foster was just like a few of these guys. i'm not sure we select an offensive tackle in the first because of the numbers we have of players that could be possibilities at the position.

center is another monkey wrench that is being neglected here. finney was told it's up to him by tomlin. that is a big if to leave hanging over your team without a plan for the future. guard is also thin, but out of the players listed above, some have the ability to play there of course. though the two birds with one stone ability comes in at the center spot if you add a draft pick that has the ability to play anywhere on the interior until the position is clearly defined. three guys from three of those big time programs come into play as that type of guy.

safety/hybrid. they have been looking to fill this spot for years. we have even drafted for it. antoine brooks jr., marcus allen, killebrew added. i'm not sure JOK being added would give them any different of a skillset that they don't already have in this position. even edmunds to an extent. i'd rule that pick out as well.

CB. yes haden is older and expensive but still playing pretty good. pierre, layne, sutton back and as i have been saying trevor williams being here, we have some talent that we could get on the field. taking another in the first seems like jumping the gun just like what they have done at tackle and too an extent hybrid safety/ LB. seems like they have flooded the position with what might stick this year before they commit. i will say though samuels and stokes are two i would love to have.

ILB. we are thin, for sure. barron browning is not a first round talent. collins is a possibility because of his ability to be a two for one. ILB/OLB has the size and speed to do this. has the ability to be used as a chess piece to a lessor degree. sarrutt, deablo < ( could fall into that hybrid role at S/ILB), davis <( ILB/OLB, very good in coverage) can also give you that type of usage at a higher level then browning. i'm still keeping my eyes on those guys along with collins.

the way this team is built at this point i see a lot of players that maybe didn't excel at other places but may indeed have a shot here. the staff wants to throw a lot at the wall and actually see what sticks. OLB, OT, G, WR, CB, S, RB. i think this could narrow it down even further. who fits the new offense will also have to come into play. Oline as well as TE, and RB, i wouldn't rule out WR that fits into those plans either. 3 of ours could be gone after this year. possibly 3 guys that don't fit it quite as well either. this again is a tough call. we have flooded that position too.

TJ watts signability. this may come into play this year. maybe they know something. the franchise tag hasn't worked out well for us lately.

all things that may factor into these decisions. i know you are giving us scenario's that they have done in the past. i'm not sure we have ever lost this many free agents and retiree's all at once though ever.

 

Nice work Ask, Thank you for that piece. I feel they need to look to the future and an every down running back iced for 5 years. The struggles in the running game last season not only start with the offensive line but us having a true bell cow. I feel this will change this season.


Travis Etienne at 24

 

Great read AQL.

 

When the Owner says they’re not going to be in the bottom of the Run game rankings again, the First pick had better improve that.

 

I'll go with Mayfield as the 1st pick. I think a rb in the 1st is considered taboo in today's NFL.

 

Very nice work .TY OP for the valid and well written information. I think we will go Etienne at 24 if he is still there. If Etienne is gone I think we will pick Asante Samuel JR..

 

Pick 24 is borderline 2nd round. So I don't think picking a RB there would be taboo. Picking a RB with our first pick, however, doesn't help our running game unless the OL gets fixed. I don't care who you get. We aren't going to run the ball well without an OL overhaul.

 

Totally agree. What is the priority, improving the OL or the RB? Does a RB in the 1st rd get us where we want without significant improvement along the line? I don't care how big, strong or fast a back is, he won't be going anywhere if met behind or at the LOS by someone bigger followed up by a LB or two. The Claypool around the end ain't gonna cut it. And Ben needs to have time to throw downfield more than 10 yards or the defense will stack the box and we're right back to last year regardless of who runs the ball. This offense needs both run and pass improvement as each helps the other is keeping the D guessing and spread out some for running lanes. I never saw 5 OL successfully blocking 8 defensive players in the box on a run play. Also, if Ben next season is the same as end of last season, not sure improving either makes all that much difference. We'll most likely get BPA anyway so who knows. Hope somebody knows what they're doing.

 

Wow! Great read! Nicely done. I like where your data/research took you with this and how you boiled it all down.

I think there's more of an asterisk on this draft, however because of Covid, cap space, and need. We have had more key-personnel turnover this off-season than probably any of the Colbert era. We don't typically go into the draft with as much desperation as we are this year. When was the last draft season that you said, "We have more needs than we can adequately fill." Recent memory can't come up with any.

We're also at the end of an era with our franchise qb. That changes things as well. For years, Ben has been as much a driving force to personnel decisions as coaches/management. Now that he's departing sooner than later, a decision has to be made to tool up for his last hoorah as opposed to looking to the future. We have no idea what we're going to need to complement our next signal-caller. Colbert hasn't had to deal with that scenario. It has "always" been, "Who can we get to help Ben make a run for the next few years?"

With that said, and following your lead, we're not a great team. Therefore, we need to draft position over player. This is a one-year deal with Ben at the helm. A great team would, to your credit, pick player over position. But that only works when you're not up against a chasm-sized hole of need for starters as well as depth. Player over position implies that the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. That's true when you are mainly whole already. We're not. And therefore, our whole needs to be greater than the sum of its parts. We simply won't have the parts in place to be a great team, a whole team. And so, coaching will be more important this season than in recent past. Game-planning, preparation, and putting those parts in the best position to succeed will drive the outcome of games more than anything else.

And that's why my opinion is that we do not take player over position in this draft. Shore up the foundation and solidify the team from the ground up.

 

I made the comment elsewhere about Terrell Davis not being a great RB, but making it to the HoF because of the OL he ran behind. No offense to TD, but he doesn't make the Hall without a stellar OL. If you follow that logic, Snell could easily rush for 1000 yards behind a good OL. Anyone who downplays his ability based on what he's trying to run behind is just not paying attention. Our current RB's are NOT the problem.

Frankly, if we draft a RB with the first pick, we're going to be spitting on the rest of ours. If I were a RB on our roster and had to put up with running up our OL's asses 3 yards back in the backfield or into the face of the DL in the same spot AND THEN having my ability questioned by another RB being brought in to replace me, I would be begging to be traded. Drafting a RB with our first pick is a big FU to our current stable of RB's.

 

Like any of them would start on 31 other teams. They can leave lol.

 

Nice read , enjoyable, and well informed.
I believe We go Asante Samuel jr. if he's still on the Board. Of course I've been saying they go Cb for ever ....So .

 

Yikes. Let's just let the entire OL, all 3 QB's, and all but 3 of our receiving corp go as well. Other than 3 receivers, our entire offense wouldn't start on the other teams.

My point wasn't about them leaving, but more about the attitude of the organization towards its players.

 

This won't be the same line as last year. Pouncey is gone. Dotson should start every game. Banner will be back hopefully for more then a half a game. So to keep saying it's the same line is just not true. Not much about last year's line is still in the works.

 

Yes

They seem to be easier to find, and you generally get one contract at best out of them.

 

Hey everyone! Me again and just wanted to say thank you for the comments and critiques! That said, let me take this opportunity to clarify some of the bigger concerns within my post.



1.) Remember everyone, barring extreme circumstances, most teams often enter the draft with one 1st Round Pick. More often than not, that pick has to be predicated on the most glaring needs on the team. That said though, if a player that is graded higher, who is within the realm of needs a team needs but is not as big of a need as the most pressing one falls to said team, taking that player that is graded higher is more often than not the smart play. Keep in mind everyone that the best player available does not always facilitate into the most glaring position the team needs. Drafting for need is the worst possible strategy any team should deploy barring extreme circumstances; often is the case within the top 10 but is not guaranteed to succeed 100% of the time. As such, let us remember that some players are rated higher than others for a reason. For that matter, even obtaining a First Round Grade by the NFL Draft Advisory Board is unimaginably difficult in it of itself and never mind Top 20 or even Top 10.


2.) Having depth at a specific position is always a good aspect when heading into the NFL Draft. However, the main question that should be asked is not of how much a team has within that position but how much longer will the team have that depth?! Much like the seasons, rosters change periodically due to a tremendous degree of factors; some more extreme than others. Overall though, planning ahead is what has kept successful NFL Franchises like Packers or the Steelers competitive as long as they have been. Staying put just for even a second in terms of Roster Building will yield far more harm than good in the long run.


3.) As I said within the post, the events that COVID 19 has caused has left scar on the NFL Landscape hither to undreamt of. As such, finding out if these Zoom Call meetings are official is paramount as anything that is unofficial will be nothing but a game of speculation and assumptions. Furthermore, we also have to consider the fact that said event has likely caused major changes that will forever affect how the NFL conducts their scouting with prospects and interviews within the Pro Day Circuit. I seriously doubt that, even when we do return to normal, the same factors and tried and true methods will remain such. Therefore, there were some notable omissions from the list of players listed within my post; unofficial meetings being the biggest culprit of them.





I understand that there likely will be more clarification for some that will be needed and I am happy to assist. That said however, general rules and guidelines of how to draft as successfully as possible are still in tact. Even with a world changing event like COVID 19, for the NFL Draft, the goal remains the same;



Find the best players to help your team win a Super Bowl.

 

I truly hope SaQuon Barkley does buck this trend. Not only is he easy to root for, when healthy, he is arguably the best in the game.

 

I prefer they go RB, or LT in the first round, but if they took Collins at #24 I would like it.

 

I’m a PSU fan so the rooting is easy. But he already has an injury to work back from and even from year one to two his production dropped.

 

True. Given Barkley's running style, recovering from something like an ACL is not going to be easy. That said, if there is one guy I would trust to return, he is the one. Very few players that I have ever scouted had or has as much desire and perseverance with the talent to match like him.

 

I'd be OK with it at 24 this year.

 

It should be unless you are loaded elsewhere and just need a back to get you over the top, but even that backfires. See Patriots and Sony Michel.

That said, if Najee is there I don't see how the Steelers pass. I'm hoping he goes earlier, but earlier than 23rd, or we risk another Artie Burns panic pick.