Biggest bust potential

I've said many times that this is a very deep draft..... Actually, this is the deepest draft I've ever seen, but that said, every year a few of these "can't miss" prospects find a way to miss for whatever reason...... Who out of the sure fire first rd picks do you see as being one of those big busts and who do you want us to steer clear of......
For me, the 1st rd candidate with the highest bust potential is kwity paye.
Curious to know all of yours

 

I had to look him up. Kitty? LOL I typed in Kitty paye and got Kwity paye! Just pulling your leg. I don't know anything about him so I have no clue

 

all of the other first round QBs behind Trevor Lawrence.

Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Mac Jones.

 

I think I'm going with Trey Lance. Just a feeling

 

Damn auto correct...... it's worse than network tv censors

 

I think he has less than 20 starts in college, he should probably sit and learn his rookie season.

 

Sorry for the late reply guys!! Had some back end work on my new laptop!! At any point, here is a short list of players I personally have.


List will be updated soon.



Biggest Bust Potential Prospects:








QB Trey Lance: Less than 500 Total Career Passing Attempts?! That said, not all of it is his fault as the FCS was essentially cancelled for him. Even so, better have him sit as having him start will ultimately be his undoing. He is too raw in his overall mechanics at the moment but has an immeasurable set of tools to build on.


QB Mac Jones: I am running out of ways to say it.... so, I will just say it; BUYER BEWARE! I do understand that a QB does need talent around him to succeed in order for him to do anything. That said, half of his Offense is/will be either First Round or Top 50 players by the time their respective drafts roll around. Look at Mac Jones solely and, outside of his accuracy, pocket presence and decent extension of plays...... is there any other redeeming qualities?! Yes, yes, another QB that the NFL knows of very well has done far more with far less but how much is that due entirely to him?!


QB Justin Fields: His dynamic play making is not to be questioned; his unique abilities to extend plays doubly so. That said, his abilities to not just stand up to pressure within the pocket but also navigate said pressure is some of the worst I have ever seen of a Top Five pick. Add his inconsistencies in terms of being consistent in the passing game with his lack of experience and Justin Fields, while having the most dynamic and impact play making ability among any QB in the class, also possess some of the most glaring issues among any QB in the class. Again, I can easily see him using his legs more than his arms making plays whenever he is pushed too early to start..... and such an accelerated form of development will cause more harm than good.


QB Zach Wilson: While he has shown absolute flashes of brilliance during his time at BYU.... keep in mind that these levels were against some very suspect competition. Not all of course but some of the competition Wilson faced was not exactly a worthy challenge for him. In addition, while he has the ability to make any throw off any platform, this gunslinger mentality will get him into far more trouble than he should be in. As opposed to speed reading the coverage, picking the option that will get open and rifle his passes in, Wilson instead elects to forcibly extend plays on nearly every single play. Such a concern is warranted as he is not very good at handling pressure within the pocket but not nearly as bad as Fields is. While he does have the athletic ability to evade and elude such pressure while navigating it very well, there will not be nearly as much openings for rushing lanes in the NFL as it was in the FCS; his lack of experience against top tier competition being his biggest concern. Again, his impressive athletic and passing abilities are already at an elite level but the basics and fundamentals are in need of a serious tune up.


QB: Kyle Trask: The whole "Arm Strength" aspect does not carry nearly as much weight for me... if it ever did. However, much like Mac Jones, beyond his abilities as a passer, what else does he provide?! His pro day will definitely be one worth watching as his limited mobility is not suitable for today's NFL. In addition, like Mac Jones, Trask had quite the amount of talent as a whole during his time at the University of Florida. However, unlike Mac Jones, Trask is not someone who can maneuver in the pocket as well as he should in comparison to Mac Jones.


WR Rondale Moore: Using him as a multi role weapon will suit his abilities. Using him as the Number One Receiver against some of the top flight corners is asking for serious issues.


OT Jalen Mayfield: Asking him to play Offensive Tackle out of the gate is not a good idea. If he is brought along slowly, this is a different story.


OT: Samuel Cosmi: I do realize he had the best ever athletic testing for a Offensive Tackle. That said and, beyond that, some of his flaws still remain. As much as I enjoy him, playing him at Left Tackle just because he is simply more athletic than anyone is asking for trouble. If a team is to draft him, have him as a swing tackle early on and let him work his way up.


OT Walker Little: Likely going to be over drafted.... and likely to flame out doubly so if he is going to be the blindside protector. Even as a Right Tackle, he is not very good in run blocking nor is nearly as skilled in his run blocking sets.j


OC Landon Dickerson: That injury history is..... well.... not good. While he has the ability of being the best Offensive Center in the Draft, his injury history makes him a classical example of roll the dice.


EDGE Jayson Oweh: He will be way over drafted than he should be and will likely struggle out of the gate. Despite his limitless athleticism and potential, the talent and polish is sadly not there just yet for such a high price. Add the fact that he did not produce during his Junior Year and one has to wonder if this is a supercharged Mike Mamula or not?!


EDGE Gregory Rousseau: Beyond his opt out, there are more flaws to his game than one gives him credit for. The most critical of which is that his toolbox is simply not fully developed just yet. Add his possible leverage issue (pending pro day) and inexperience at the position and, even with the likes of Owusu Koramoah and Lance, one could make a case for Rousseau being the biggest risk in the entire draft.


EDGE Jaelen Phillips: Much like Landon Dickerson, his career has been plagued big time by injuries. It is quite a shame as his Junior tape makes him arguably the best pass rusher in the class. However, banking on that one season of production after sustaining so many injuries is quite the risk.


EDGE Kwity Paye: No athletic or injury issues here. The biggest issue with him is that he is very scheme specific. Asking him to do more than just rush the passer is going to result in some harsh and deep growing pains.


Off Ball LB Jeremiah Owusu Koramoah: Say hello to the biggest wild card in the draft!! What is he exactly?! There in lies problem number one. Unless a team has a plan for him to maximize his abilities, pigeonholing him will cause his immense talent to be wasted and thus, stymie his impact overall. If anything, J.O.K. is not just scheme specific but also potentially team specific as well as not every team deploys such talents like J.O.K. the same they would other unique players. (i.e. how the Chargers deploy Derwin James vs. how the Steelers deploy Minkah Fitzpatrick).


Off Ball LB Micah Parsons: I have already been on record regarding the hazing incident and it seems that sadly, some within the National Media is as well. However, that is not the issue with Micah Parsons. While he excels at run stuffing and pass rushing, pass coverage is an area that he really lets him down. He possess the athleticism to do so but does not possess the polish or fundamentals for such a talent with such ability. He no doubt has three down potential..... but he is not at the level of pass coverage ability that neither Devin Bush Jr or Devin White showcased from 2019.


CB Patrick Surtain II: Judging by both his Pro Day as well as his 2020 tape, some wonder how the heck he is even here?! That answer is simple; ball tracking ability.... or lack thereof. People initially thought that Jaycee Horn Jr was too aggressive during coverage. I beg to differ. Way too often I found myself puzzled as to why Surtain II is so grabby after the initial five yards. I then realized that is, like many big corners, shifty but explosive Wide Receivers are their biggest weakness. Here in lies the issue; said Wide Receiver is VERY POPULAR in today's NFL. If Surtain II were in the league a decade ago, he is hands down not just the best corner but best defender and arguably the best prospect in my eyes..... if the NFL was what it was a decade ago. Sadly, this is simply not the case and, due to this fact, Patrick Surtain II is sadly more scheme limited despite his impressive testing results.


CB Caleb Farley: So far, some of my potential busts have been either injury risks, opt outs, shortcomings in their abilities and how that may make them scheme specific, their rawness to their position or a combination of the five. Caleb is a very different case study. For one, his injury history is troubling; doubly so given his back injury. For two, his best tape was mainly from his Freshman Season. Most importantly, for three, how physical is he exactly?! When it comes to where he fits scheme wise, among the big three between Jaycee Horn Jr and Surtain II, say hello to the most coverage diverse Corner in the class. That said, some schemes do demand that their Corner support in the run more so than others; something he has trouble in even dating back to his Freshman days. Add up the injury woes and it does beg the question as to how available he will be when he enters the NFL Draft.

 

Other players may be added but so far, nothing to add just yet for my list.

 

my non QB is JOK. i think he gets exposed big time in the pros. won't meet the billing and early rd. ranking.

 

LOL. Ok. Maybe just I thought the ....outside of his accuracy, pocket presence and decent extension of plays..
Was funny. What do you want ?
While you do mention that the offense he plays for has all these top talent. You fail 2 mention that most the teams he played against Defenses are top talent. Also because of the Virus. He had no stats padding games. Every team he face was SEC untill he faced the best from other conference in the Playoffs & Championship.
He is better than Tua.

 

9 of those SEC teams didn't have winning records.

 

Because they only played SEC teams. They didn't get 2 play out of conference games this year.
Now when the draft comes. Tell me how many of those teams players get drafted.

 

I disagree.


Tua was more dynamic extending plays before his injury. I doubt Tua moves like he used ever again but I am only comparing Tua vs. Mac as prospects right now as opposed to what they could become. In addition, the major aspect that separates Tua vs. Mac is overall arm talent. Mac has a good arm but Tua's is better. Add the fact that they are both ridiculously accurate and the battle between Tua vs. Mac comes down to the finite details.


Again, for me, Tua was the better QB coming out because he had more abilities to make plays and possessed the greater overall arm talent. Their accuracy and intangibles are essentially the same as I can see as neither does much to one up the other. Either way, it is as you stated in your reply to @mac daddyo, there will be, yet again, a great parade of SEC Talent drafted in the First Round.


Here in lies the kicker though. How many Alabama players will be selected?! To reiterate, I had said in that statement that Mac used what was given to him and towards great results. However, to be a Franchise QB, sometimes, one needs to overcome whatever limitations their offense has to win the day. In short?! A Franchise QB must be able to find other avenues to win.



Tua showed that just before his injury got him. I cannot say the same for Mac Jones. We shall see.

 

All the power 5 conferences put draft picks into the nfl. Every conference has a big discrepancy from top to bottom as well. The top teams in any conference will have players drafted. It's the talent of the player over what conference they play in. That's why Cincinnati can play head to head with georgia. Oklahoma can beat up florida. Northwestern can beat up auburn. There were a lot of small conference good teams last year that will put a lot of players in the nfl. Many get drafted but not all live up to their billing like they did with blue chippers at every position like they have at Alabama playing against some of the weaker SEC team padding their stats. That's not a dig on the sec it's just a fact of the draft.

 

Tuas arm is better?Bases on what? I watched him play many of times...And I didn't think he had much of an arm at all...And actually... Mac Jones had a better arm...That's what my eyes showed me by far!

 

And this was before hip surgery...Looked like he was throwing lolly pops last year

 

Tua's arm is better based on my own scouting report and not someone else's. The most important aspect of scouting is to deduce and formulate ones own opinions using what they know and see on tape. I never said Tua has a cannon.



My comparison is between solely on Mac Jones vs Tua. Rather, let us put it another way. Mac Jones has a quality NFL Arm but do not expect Patrick Mahomes throws from him. Tua has a very good arm in comparison but still lags behind the likes of Mahomes or even his own draft classmate in Justin Herbert.

 

Enjoy your posts, you put a lot of time and effort into them but, couldn't disagree with you more on this one ..Tua has a very BELOW average arm...I just watched a video of him on social media ( wish I had it ) ...

Showed him throwing outs and go routes, and various other throws...His his throws were high arching lolly pops ( even on the short ones ) and people were all over him...

There have even been rumblings inside the Dolphins facilities of moving on from him... Already!

 

Rumors mind you. Nothing definitive yet. Furthermore, we can end the "move from Tua" narrative as Miami's current placement knocks them out of selecting Wilson, Lance and Fields. Kyle Pitts might be there along with Penei Sewell, but if I am Miami, I am going with Jaylen Waddle.

 

Hate 2 disagree, but I disagree. As of 2020 there were 348 players on active rosters from the SEC. Not all were Alabama. Not even close. Next closest was Big 10 with 264...were they all from Ohio st. ? No. ...but if I spouted that out enough, maybe people would believe it. Like they believe Alabama is the only team in the SEC.
Since 2000 there have been 12 SEC national Championship winners. Florida, LSU, and Alabama have all won multiple titles. Also Auburn who has won. Thats not counting 5 SEC teams that went ,and lost in that time. Like Georgia ,LSU ,or Auburn. Thats 17 times in 20 years SEC has represented.
What everyone says about the the SEC, they should say about the other conferences. Big 10 Ohio st ..that's it.. That's it. Big 12 or whatever their called now . Oklahoma once, Texas once. In all reality Texas against USC, should have been one of them against Auburn, who was undefeated in the SEC that year, but people were getting tired of the SEC already.
So....

 

Ok...carry on... I've watched him for years,And I think his arm STINKS . But , oh well... That's my opinion...And wtf do I know

 

Dale Lolley and Matt Williamson just did a podcast for DK Pittsburgh Sports, where they went through ESPN's QBR analysis of all of the QB prospects, in a variety of categories - under pressure, while blitzed, deep/mid/short accuracy, deep sideline out accuracy, etc.

Mac Jones was at or near the top of each. You know who was not highly ranked on most, if not all?

Trevor Lawrence. Fields was higher in many categories than TL.

Mac's floor is Andy Dalton. Don't see him completely busting out. He's a smart, accurate QB who doesn't move real well.

 

Agree to disagree.



As I said, to each their own. I never said Mac Jones will bust out. When I said the "buyer beware" comment, I am referring to what a team believes he can be vs. what he actually is. He is, to me, by no means a Franchise Caliber QB but a very good one. Will he go far in this league?! Of that I have no doubt.



Is he a transformative type QB worth selecting within the first 15 picks?! Not to me.




FYI: QBR is a very DEADLY statistic if used incorrectly. Be mindful of how you utilize said info.

 

Trey Lance was waaaaay down on most of them, too. His accuracy is a big issue, coupled with small sample size, competition, etc.

4th round flier at best, but he'll go in the first round.