Wentz

Matt Canada's Offense relies heavily on Outside Zone Runs, Motion Sets, and Play Action with some quick strike passing from time to time. Regarding how will Canada's Offense will work with Ben, given the fact that Big Ben is either unable to push the ball downfield anymore or was simply too hurt to do so, running the football and using Play Action on those successful runs will be how the team can keep Big Ben happy. That said, regarding Tomlin not knowing Lance, I seriously doubt it. North Dakota State is not far off from Pittsburgh for a start; making the Steelers BLETSO Team's commute that much more manageable. For two, both Tomlin and Colbert have long been known to keep an eye on every form of collegiate talent they can; division of the NCAA Football being irrelevant to them. Finally, it has been speculated for some time now that the team is looking for a QB; making the link to Trey Lance even more believable.


However, the biggest issue with Lance thus far is his lack of experience. Even dating back to the year 2000, Kevin Colbert has never selected a QB with fewer than 999 Pass Attempts. Trey Lance does not even crack 500. Even so, Trey Lance has stellar arm talent, an absolute cannon for an arm, great instincts, superb athleticism, and immeasurable play making ability which leads to his ultimate capability; limitless potential. This is why so many websites are mocking him as high as the Top 3 as such because raw QBs like Trey Lance do not come around often. However, thanks in part to COVID 19, there is no guarantee where he will go. Some believe he could go as high as New York while others believe he might fall to us!! The biggest concern though is that with that limitless potential also potentially comes immeasurable bust potential. His ceiling/floor is the most abnormal that I have ever studied from a QB.



Even so, should he make by pick 14, if I am Kevin Colbert, I am WORKING THAT PHONE. Matt Canadas Offense with Trey Lance's abilities = Instant Big Ben succession plan.

 

Respectfully disagree. Lance is undoubtedly intriguing, but I'm not giving up what it would cost to get into the teens to get him. Maybe up a pick or three if he falls into the 20's... but even then, given the number of holes the Steelers have to fill, it's hard to justify leveraging that against the hopes that one year of superior NDS numbers translate to franchise NFL QB status.

That all said, I love the potential upside.

 

One is not gambling on those NDS numbers to translate however. One is gambling on his ability to quickly pick up on the game; a process made much easier thanks in part to the increased influx of college level plays NFL Teams are using these days. Matt Canada is no different from this new wave of Offensive Play Calling. If anything and, as I said, Canada and Lance are the ultimate "Football Match Made in Heaven" in the class; including even Trevor Lawrence. Canada's Offensive Philosophy fits Trey Lance's abilities to the tee. No doubt Trey Lance would be able to become a Franchise QB under Canada.



Very seldom would I ever advocate for a trade as such to begin with anyways. Keep in mind that Lance may already be gone by that point. If anything, Matt Rhule getting his hands on Trey Lance would end up turning the Carolina Panthers into a powerhouse team that will be able to contend within two years minimum post 2021. Granted, Rhule's Offensive Philosophy would not be nearly as beneficial for Lance as it would Canada's, Lance would still be able to pick up that Offense fairly easy considering his time at North Dakota State and Matt Rhule's Offensive Philosophy are nearly identical.

 

Wentz and two firsts for Ben to take that contract

 

Why would the Steelers want Trubisky? They already have a failed first round pick in Haskins.

 

Because Lance only played 1 game in 2020, his team canceled their season.

 

You seem to have infinitely more insight about Lance then I do so I'll take your analysis as reference. A couple of thoughts though, if he were available to get, would he really be worth getting over a BPA OL that we could start shoring up our OL and run game especially if Ben returns? What would you assess his potential bust percentage could be in taking in first round and is that still worth doing? I am of the opinion that the offense lives, breathes, and dies based on the OL and this becomes a chicken and the egg scenario. Which is better to get first? There isn't really a wrong answer that would be apparent right away but you'd think getting a 1st round talent and having him with a clip board on the sidelines would be frustrating vs an immediate impact stud OLman. Glad I am not involved with these types of decisions.

 

Not disagreeing about the Offensive Line being a major need at all. If anything, that aspect is also where some of the immeasurable bust potential lies for Trey Lance. That said, how often does "the guy" fall within striking distance?! Very seldom. You are correct as the success percentage for QBs drafted in Round One is relatively high; 55% of QBs drafted between 2011 to 2017 per this site. Now, the issue is there is no set percentiles for QBs but the overall success for picks between 11-15 compared to 21-26 is 57% to 29%. However, there is so much more than just a mere percentage figure at play here. The most important factor about scouting QBs is always about scheme and the team around thelm; the scheme to allow that QB to get as acclimated as quickly as he can and the team that can assist him in his other shortcomings as he progresses. Granted, the usual aspects, such as arm talent, arm strength, intangibles and other values are important as well. It is just that



In addition, this year is plentiful of Offensive Tackles and Offensive Lineman as a whole. Regarding the "stud" aspect, the only "stud" level Offensive Lineman are both Penei Sewell and RaShawn Slater; both of whom will be long gone by the time Pittsburgh is on the clock. Samuel Cosmi has "stud" potential but also has major bust potential as well; Jalen Mayfield the same due to lack of experience. Other tackles, like Liam Eichenberg, are risks but not because of their lack of experience but their lack of athletic ability. That said, plenty more of these examples for Pittsburgh to decide on at pick 24.



For me though, this draft can kill two birds with one stone. Again, assuming Lance is within striking distance here, trading up for Lance nabs our QB of the future. Due to this draft's immense depth at Offensive Tackle, finding an athletic one will not be as difficult considering such athletic tackles need time to hone their skills anyways; early to mid Day 2 picks would be their landing spot. Given this information, I definitely would pull the trigger but again, it all depends on the board.

 

Familiarity. Just like Haskins. Just like Minkah. For that matter, just like every player Tomlin has ever brought in since his tenure here. Some were successful and some were not.



Keep in mind, I am not advocating for Mitchell at all. All I am stating is that Mitchell being traded here will not surprise nor shock me in the slightest.

 

Why is Mitchell T familiar with us???

 

Kevin Colbert. North Carolina Pro Day 2017.

 

Oh! I didn't know that. Dang I hope not. ( get him)

 

Not a single QB in this league has made it on Talent Alone. However there have been QB's who have done more by sheer will. Haskins has Talent that not only didn't translate as well as people hoped for in the NFL he also has a 5 cent head with a Negative 100 dollar work ethic. There's no place for this dude here or in the league. Even if he pulls his head out of his Butt he is way to far behind the curve now. Its a waste of time, money and coaching to even mess with this kid. We do not have the coaching or the culture to even think about taking this on and the reward is simply not worth the risk. Hence why nobody else wanted him. If he was worth even a half a grain of salt Belicheck or any of the other coaches and teams that always take flyers on problem players would have at least looked at him. as i said before signing this kid reeks of desperation!

 

i think the Eagles are more likely to get the Goff package than the Stafford package. If the Eagles didn't feel pretty confident in Hurts a Wentz (Goff) for Watson (Stafford) type trade might work.

 

I understand the trepidation here, while no pick is 100% (even OL, remember Reinstra, Clemons, and Stephens) you do get the sense that this pick could give you 10 years on the outside, or at C. If you move up to get anyone (especially a QB) in the 1st and give up to much you set the franchise back years if he fails. I have to trust those who do the scouting, but Trey has all the tools, but as you said the expectation for the first year is nil, and realistically even the 2nd year would be bouncy. I would be torn, but look at all the QB's on the market this year, the financial impact even for the lower level guys is off the charts and you still have to factor in building a team around someone you are paying big bucks to.

If he is there at 15-18 and you think he has the tools then I think you try and make the deal..gives you 5 years at a relatively decent price to see what he has got, plus that 5th year option.

 

IMO, that data provides no more backing to Lance being "the guy", let alone worth the cost the Steelers would have to give (assuming he's gone by 1.15) to get him. The site linked uses an AV/5 metric, derived from PFR's Approximate Value stat, setting AV=5 as that of a common starter in the league. (That in itself leads to debate - a starter on a good team will generally be of higher quality than one on a bad team... but NFL stats being more difficult to apply to individual player performance than those of, say, MLB, we'll let that go for now.)

Going on to show the percentage, by position/year, of Rd1 draftees that became a '5' in the league, it is seen that an equal percentage of '5' AV QBs also became AV '7' ... 55%. The problem is 55% simply provides a success rate overall for Rd1 QBs taken from 2011 - 2017, and further, the measure of that "success" still varies. For example, it reports 100% of the QBs from 2015 achieved AV7 (even higher than successful starter). The two taken in the first that year? Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota.

The comparison of success rate between picks 11-16 and 21-26 adds no clarity (as you note) as it lumps all positions together, and again, the vague rating/success correlation. You're talking of "the guy" in Lance and "stud" OTs. I don't see where this AV data fleshes any of that out - we'd likely need a higher value.

At any rate, it leaves us with little more than percentages of serviceable starters/backups drafted over the six years by position. The Steelers are in need of that at OL, RB, TE, LB, CB, and yes, QB. Argument can also be made for WR and DL. That's a lot of bodies, and as your link suggests the likelihood of drafting serviceable starters/backups falls off significantly the later you go in the draft. Therefore, if you're going to leverage what picks you have on a single player you have to have a lot invested - figuratively and literally - in how special they truly are.

Not saying Lance can't be a very good or even elite player. Just that with the current optics, he's grades as very high risk/reward, even more so should the Steelers move up to get him. If they were sitting around 1.10 I'd pull the trigger. Hard to invest multiple picks.

 

Again, there are different reasons as to why the data is complied that way. The major aspect of it is to show how often the success rate 1st Round Players are. However, none of that is the point. The biggest point is that players often end up flaming out because;


a.) Teams overdraft based on need

b.) Said player does not fit that teams system

most importantly

c.) The NFL Draft is an inexact science




Trey Lance can likely fall into any one of the aforementioned; perhaps all of them. If anything, there is a good chance he just might overall. That said, a lot of a players success stems from the teams that draft them and how they will use that players abilities. For me, Matt Canada is about as fit and glove as there is among the teams who will likely jostle for Lance. Even so, I seriously doubt he will be available in the 10-15 range and never mind about being available at pick 24.



Finding the next one is impossible to do. That said, teams that are desperate will do whatever it takes to grab on who they believe is either the successor of a previous HOF QB or their savior to save them from mediocrity. Book Pittsburgh as officially a team that is in the hunt for finding Big Ben's heir.

 

With respect, you speak like you're bringing information but there's little substance here.

"Again, there's reasons the data is compiled that way." 'Again'? I'm aware of why the data is collected that way - as well as the respective pros and cons - I've encountered it previously, but still read the links you posted to see if there was a more granular piece/approach supporting your view.

You state that the main point of the article is to show how often first round picks "succeed" but - lest we get drawn into the debate of 'success' and how it relates to supporting your view the Steelers should trade up to take Lance - you quickly say "none of that is the point."

From there you visit three reasons high draft picks fail, all of which, IMHO, are common knowledge - and, particularly in the case of A and C, represent significant reasons the Steelers should avoid trading up for Lance going into the draft. You finish with more common sense-speak about where the Steelers stand in terms of finding Ben's replacement, and how it relates to their draft position and Lance's projected slot.

That all said, in between you do again mention your belief that Lance's style would fit Canada's system extremely well. Do you have more specifics you can bring to help color that view? Because as one who isn't extremely well-versed in Canada's or NDSU's respective systems of yet, I'd be interested to hear more about that. I suspect others here would be as well.

 

Here is a good read on why Canada and Lance would be a hand in glove fit. Another link for those that are interested about the NDSU Offensive Scheme can be found here albeit in limited capacity. Much of the same concepts found in Canada's Scheme can translate for Lance. Obiviously some aspects are different and he will need work on. However, I believe I shall conclude with this.



As opposed to dragging this out any further, I think at this juncture we will have to agree to disagree here. Trey Lance is likely to be picked high due to his abilities and what he can provide. At the same time, he is also arguably the biggest risk for any team as he does not have much experience. That said, if there is a team that Trey Lance would maximize his skill set as quickly as he can, few teams for me come to mind than Pittsburgh.


Again, agree to disagree good sir!!

 

Trey Lance is gonna be picked too high for the Steelers to have a shot. Lesser teams want him and I doubt will let the Steelers jump in front to trade up.

 

Appreciate the links, thanks!

As for disagreeing, I don't disagree with really anything in your second paragraph here. Lance is without a doubt one of the most intriguing prospects in the draft - for me personally, I'd have him behind only Lawrence despite his limited experience. I just have have issue condoning the Steelers spend multiple picks moving up as far as they'd need to in order to draft him. His enormous potential comes with equal risk, and unfortunately the Steelers just have too many holes to fill.

Besides, we have Haskins.

 

While I don't think anyone would have given a huge haul for Wentz, this really didn't do much for the Eagles. They're now faced with eating $34M in dead cap space going into a year where the floor is now being reported to be around $180M. And all they're getting in recompense (this year) is a late third. Barring injury or truly disastrous play they'll likely get a late first next year.

The extension of Wentz two years ago (along with the Rams and Goff) underscores how much risk a team takes when inking big dollar contracts too far in advance. The Eagles are now saddled with the largest dead money hit in history for a player they didn't get a down of action out of past his rookie contract.

Hope they use those two picks wisely.