Playoff Math Made Simple

I know this is the 3rd Playoff Scenario thread on the board, but I thought this was worthy of its own thread. This is per the ESPN Playoff Machine.

Baltimore, Tennessee, and Indy play cream puff last games against Cincinnati, Houston, and Jacksonville respectively. I am going to go ahead and assume those are all wins. So here are the Steelers possible scenarios.

Bills win their final two games and Steelers win vs Browns
Steelers vs Colts

Bills win their final two games and Steelers lose vs Browns
Steelers vs Browns

Bills go 1-1 in their final two games and Steelers lose vs Browns
Steelers vs Ravens

Bills go 1-1 in their final two games and Steelers win vs Browns
Steelers vs Colts

Bills lose their final two games and Steelers win vs Browns
Steelers vs Colts

Bills lose their final two games and Steelers lose vs Browns
Steelers vs Browns

So there are 6 different scenarios. In 3 of those scenarios the Steelers play the Colts. In 2 of those scenarios the Steelers play the Browns. There is only one scenario where the Steelers play the Ravens. Anything can happen, but its looking like a Colts rematch to me.

 

I’d rather lose against the browns week 16 then beat them first playoff game haha

 

I would hate to lose a game, but that might be the best case scenario for the Steelers.

 

Thanks for this thread.

What results are needed for the Ravens to not make the playoffs, out of interest?

 

If the Bengals beat the Ravens, and the Browns beat the Steelers, the Ravens are out.

 

Bills win tonight eliminates 2 scenarios, which leaves the Steelers with these 4 possibilities. This is if Ten, Bal, and, Indy all win.






Bills win their final two games and Steelers win vs Browns
Steelers vs Colts

Bills win their final two games and Steelers lose vs Browns
Steelers vs Browns

Bills go 1-1 in their final two games and Steelers lose vs Browns
Steelers vs Ravens

Bills go 1-1 in their final two games and Steelers win vs Browns
Steelers vs Colts

 

I think the Colts would also have to win to eliminate the Ravens in that scenario. If the Colts also lost, they would be tied with the Ravens at 10-6. The Ravens hold the tiebreaker over the Colts because they beat them head-to-head.

 

Some stuff is being left out. Still a scenario where the Colts can win the South next week and push the Titans potentially out of the playoffs or into tie breaking scenarios with any of these other teams that accrue losses next week to get to 10-6 with them.

Edit: Titans hold tiebreakers over all 3 of the Browns, Ravens and Dolphins. So if they were to lose to Houston, they would only need one of the 3 to lose.

 

Really comes down to the Bills game. If they lose to the Dolphins, chances are really high we play the Ravens in the wildcard round.

If they win, we will play the Colts or Browns.

(this is already assuming that the Steelers are taking the L to rest all of our important players)

 

If I'm the Bills, I want that No. 2 seed for many reasons. One is to guarantee home-field advantage for the divisional round. It also gives them what is most likely an easier road to the conference championship game because it pushes the Ravens into the other side of the bracket. (This assumes the Ravens beat the Bengals, which seems extremely likely.)

Baltimore is a terrible matchup for Buffalo. The Bills' defense is more vulnerable to the run, so they could have some problems with the Ravens' offense. Baltimore also has the athleticism at linebacker and the talent in the secondary to give the Bills' passing game trouble.

I'm probably just trying to convince myself that the Bills will actually play their guys and try to win Sunday, but there is some logic to it as well.

 

Yes. I'm assuming that the Colts beat the Jags. Anything can happen, but that one seems pretty safe.

 

Have Miami been eliminated? If they have something to play for vs the Bills it makes a Bills win much less likely, especially if they rest the majority of their starters.

 

Miami is very much alive. A win and they’re in I believe. They’ll be 11-5 with 8 conf wins. That gives them a tiebreak edge on just about everyone.

 

That’s what I thought. Surely they are a potential opponent in that case? I don’t see them in the OP’s formula, perhaps I’m missing something

 

According to the scenario above, if Miami wins, they are the number 5 seed, top seeded wildcard team. They could only play the #4 seed. However, all of the scenarios above are predicated on three things- that the Titans, Ravens, and Colts all win. Playing bottom 5 teams, it's likely, but any loss among those three teams will greatly change the math.

 

Exactly. The Titans, Ravens, and Colts all have games they should easily win. So this formula is based of those 3 teams winning.

There is no scenario where the Steelers play Dolphins if the above teams win.

The Bills may not be resting anyone vs the Dolphins. 2nd seed is still up for grabs. The Bills lose and the Steelers win, the Steelers are the 2nd seed.

 

So we will play the Colts, Browns or Ravens. I was hoping for the Dolphins.

I think the most exciting Playoff hunt this Sunday will be the NFC Least. I believe 3 of the 4 teams could win division.

 

Why would the Bills want the #2 seed more than the Steelers do? Not sure why they won’t rest guys while the Steelers do.

 

Thanks for the clarification re the Dolphins

Much of a muchness really who we play, Ravens probably the toughest out there but it’s a home game so Steelers should be favourites

 

I'm not sure anyone is resting anyone. Some coaches want to keep playing as long as there is something to play for. Others would rather preserve health. The Bills dont have an injured 38 year old quarterback that needs rest. The Steelers do.

 

I'm not sure what it would take for them to win the division, but I'm really pulling for the Giants. A lot of my neighbors are Giants fans, and this has been a brutal season for them.

 

The Bills don’t have a 38 yr old QB, but they don’t want their 24 yr old QB to get hurt for the playoffs in a meaningless game, either.

 

It not being meaningless is kind of the point. 2nd seed still up for grabs. Who knows what the Bills will do.

 

I'd want the #2 if I'm the Bills, a lot of times you see the Top seed come out rusty have a layoff and get knocked out.

You get the AFC Championship at home, imagine poor Bills fans, wait almost 27 years for a home AFC championship and you can't have a full house/ or any fans at all due to Covid.