Calculating the probability of the Steelers making the playoffs

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...ri-cle-15=loss&cle-bal-16=win&cin-cle-17=loss

 

This doesn't seem right saying 1% if we only beat the Jets. Texans/Titans are fighting for division. They play each other twice. One team could lose both. Titans have to play Saints. Depends how teams finish but if Titans go 1-2. Might come down to strength of victory and barely beat us. We got strength of schedule on lock if goes to that.

Browns have to play Ravens. Raiders win out and we go 1-2. Raiders got us on division record. We got tiebreaker on Colts.

Still think it's better than 1%

 

According to the playoff predictor when I checked it, if we win any two out of three remaining games we are in. Did not check possibilities if we only win one game.

 

If we don't beat the Bills in prime time at home, we don't need to worry about the playoffs.

We are playing about the best we have all year on offense. Multiple young receivers have proven they are capable of producing at a high level, and the entire receiving corps seems to have forgotten how to drop passes. Duck is doing more than just not killing us.

The running game is still a work in progress, but has shown flashes as of late. I think they are due for a breakout game.

And the defense...they always seem to fall asleep for a series and let the opponent waltz down the field without much resistance. But before and after that series, they do justice to the memory of the Steel Curtain.

Sunday night is our very best opportunity to show which side of the contender/pretender fence we're on. All the stars are aligning.

Will the real Pittsburgh Steelers please stand up, please stand up?

 

Somebody posted a breakdown of this on another thread. Steelers really need to win two games from the remaining three. If they don’t they will be looking for other results to go their way and that is never good.

I don’t know what to make of the Bills. They have played an easy schedule but they did go in to Dallas recently and whoop them. They are built very like the current Steelers with a good D but few legit weapons on offence. Bills do not put up big scores even against very average defences. The Steelers should be able to beat them in Heinz field if the defence continues to ball and the offence play mistake free football.

 

Probability is 100% if we win next 3 games.

 

Just do it, Pittsburgh! Seriously though, 11-5 would be absolutely incredible with injuries.

That said, I think we go 10-6 and lose Sunday night.

 

Yes to everything you said. I am still unsure about how disciplined our team is as it seems we kill ourselves with penalties, stupid mistakes like fake punts, coaching errors, or players running our of bounds helping the other team. The list goes on and I know these are not exclusively just us doing them but we damn sure have our quota every game it seems. I call it winning ugly, but in the NFL a win is a win and we have a chance to legitimize this team against the Bills in our house.

 

The Bills made a fatal mistake not challenging a blatant pass interference against them. The crows got the ball and drove down the field and scored a TD.

I feel we match up well with them. And I expect a close game with our Steelers winning this contest.

Duck is getting more comfortable, the offensive line is finally showing their dominance, possibly getting Juju back as well as Connor and this defense is rolling on.

Side note: Lamar the great is now injured. What a surprise.

 

This man was last seen filming in cincy ohio.

 

The Buffalo Bills next two games are the key. Beat them, then have them beat NE next week will likely mean that the Ravens are resting players in week 17 giving Pittsburgh a legit chance at 11-5.

 

ESPN's playoff machine has the Steelers being the #6 seed if we lose to the Bills but win against the Jets and the Ravens who stand a great chance of having the #1 seed locked up before the final game. That is as long as the Titans lose to the Saints and split with the Texans.

 

I checked the same program. If either the Titans or Texans sweep then of course that means two losses and we are in on record, no tie breaker if we win two in that event. That is the huge schedule advantage we have that cuts out many variables, with the exception of a highly unlikely tie in the mix.

The Ratbirds got the Jets and Browns next. They also have a game lead over NE plus the tie breaker. Seems near certain they will have no incentive to win when we play them. I really hope we beat the Bills and nab the 5th seed.

 

I think our offense with Duck as QB is a work in progress and we don`t know if it has reached maximum efficiency. If we lose to the Bills, it better be a game where we show we have an improved/pretty good game on offense, but something stupid happened to prevent the win in a close game. I would hate that if it happened, but if it happens that way I would still hold out hope of making some noise in the playoffs. We need to prove we have enough on offense to be taken seriously and not just be a token playoff team that got in beating the lowly Jets and then a team that didn`t play it`s starters.

 

Raiders will never have us on division record since they are not in the same division

 

It sounds like we'll be getting a healthy JuJu and Conner back on Sunday, which should be huge. Having two gameplan for those guys is a nightmare while accounting for the leaps Snell/Whyte and Johnson/Washington have made.

 

The ESPN playoff machine has the Steelers getting the 6th seed over the Raiders if both finish 9-7 and the Titans are 8-8. If the Steelers win one more game then the Raiders, Colts and Browns are eliminated.

 

From what I found on the playoff machine, the only realistic way in at 9-7 is being tied with the Titans with Texans having swept the Titans. Does not matter which of the three we win to get to 9-7 in this scenario. We don`t win ties with the Texans at 9-7. However, being only 9-7 at that time means we had problems or maybe that the Browns beat the Ratbirds in week 16 and NE kept winning forcing them to play starters against us in week 17.

Funny thing is if Browns win out and are tied at 9-7 with other teams, they have good tie breakers. Laughable, but still possible. Note also that if we are tied with Browns at 9-7 we are eliminated due to division seeding.

 

Obviously. The tiebreaker says division record. So I was assuming each teams record within their division. Raiders would be 4-2 in division if they win out and we would be 3-3.

 

Win Sunday and then let's revisit

 

There you go Steel Hog.

End of story.


STEELWINDS AKA The East Side Kid

 

Hey uncblue012.

Yes, I am excited if we can finally be at 100% strength on "O". Now, the only variable is the QB play. I know that is huge but at least it is just one variable now. Plus, from a psychological standpoint this should help Duck feel a bit more comfortable. I am excited to finally see "My" "Formidable 2s" (JuJu, Washington, Johnson) all line up at the same time in a 3-Set. I just hope that JuJu is 100 healthy or at least to the point that he will be effective. I know that he has been battling injuries so he may not be 100%. However, if he is healthy enough to play then its time for him to start ballin' again! Oh Yeah!

STEELWINDS AKA The East Side Kid

 

The division record only applies to break a tie between divisional opponents

 

We beat the bills and we jump to the 5 seed. Right?

 

This would be nice, but I can see Steelers dropping at least 1 game... beating the Bills and Ravens, losing to the Jets.

It's not a complete season until Steelers lose to a bottom feeder.