Most Realistic Scenario for Steelers making Playoffs

The Steelers are probably going to have to at least go 5-3 down the stretch to get in the playoffs. I think to do that they pretty much will have to do the following. Wins against Oakland, Cleveland at home, Indy at home I think they almost have to pull off. Take a loss at Seattle and then somehow manage to go 2-2 in games where they play Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Cleveland on the road and Denver at home – that means 6-6 AFC record. I know a lot of folks think Cleveland should be a guaranteed win, but with this team it isn’t plus it is a divisional game and you never know what can happen. Ask the Eagles in their SNAFU to a bad Redskins team last year late in the year in Washington.

Looking at the Jets schedule I would guess they should have wins against Jax, Fins, Titans, a split w/the Bills, a loss against the Pats and Cowboys (they will have Romo back by then), and then probably splitting against the Giants and Texans. That would put them at 9-7. They would have 6 or 7 AFC wins.

Looking at the Bills schedule I will give them wins against the Fins, Texans at home, a split with the Jets, a loss at the Pats and Cowboys. The Chiefs, Eagles, and Redskins are all on the Road – maybe they go 2-1, though I think 1-2 is probably more likely. They would have 6 or 7 AFC wins.

Looking at the Raiders schedule I will give them wins against the Titans, Chargers, Lions, and Vikings, a split with the Chiefs, losses against the Broncos, Packers, Steelers. That puts them at 9-7. With 7 AFC wins.

The above scenario puts the Steelers at the 5 seed (I think) because the Jets knock out the Bills w/a better in conference record. The Raiders knock out the Jets based on head to head, the Steelers get the 5 seed based on head to head with the Raiders.

I really think this game against the Raiders is a must win for the Steelers, they lose this one and they pretty much have to finish the season on a 6-1 run to make it into the playoffs…and that will be very very unlikely.

Thoughts???

 

Good analysis. I think 5-3 the rest of the way gets us in at 9-7. If we get in anything can happen. I think Seattle and Denver are probably losses so we have one game we can lose in addition and hopefully make the playoffs.
If we make the playoffs with all the bad brakes we have been dealt this year I would consider this year a good year and it would show me a lot about the character and back bone of this team. I would also love to face the Bengals in the first round of the playoffs and beat the sh!t out of them.
I agree we need to beat Oakland Sunday to start this mini run. Ben needs to shake off the rust and the team need to start playing with a big chip on their shoulders. The injury to Bell is harmful but I think Williams can carry the load with a little GAMEPLANNING to compensate for the loss of Bell.
Tomlin is the wildcard in my opinion, who knows if he can make decent calls and decisions or not.
Poor tackling and too many stupid unnecessary penalties are hard to fix, I guess, but maybe we can be able to play through those if they can start playing with their heads removed from their butts.

It isn't as bright and uplifting as it once was for them to win the SB but you play the hand your dealt so we need to make the best of this. Making the playoffs and doing some damage would work for me.

 

9-7 is not good enough

 

For you or to get in the playoffs? I'd be willing to wager at least one 9-7 wildcard makes the playoffs this year in the AFC. The Steelers have issues, but so does their competition for those spots. The Jets might have major problems at QB with Fitz being hurt, Taylor may still not be healthy for the Bills, the Raiders are darlings right now but their defense is suspect. Who knows the Chiefs or Dolphins could still enter the conversation if they get on a hot streak but we saw what the Dolphins are outside of playing the AFC South. And if the Chiefs do get hot it will probably be at the expense of the Raiders.

 

for the steelers

9-7 from the afcs division champ that is all maybe

 

Look at the AFC south. It's just like last year's NFC South.

 

I seem to remember a 9-7 Pittsburgh team winning a Super Bowl. Just get in.

 

help me remember when

 

Derp . 11-5. I always think we were 9-7 when we were the 6th seed.

 

Yes, at least one team with a 9-7 record will get in.
Remember, the 5th WC will play at Ind (or Hou) the WC round...

Also, keep in mind that strong teams could be less focused at the end of the season, if they're not playing for seeding (which could be the case of CIN and DEN), so their rivals on those games (us among them) could take advantage of it.

 

11-5 with a loss @ Seattle because their front 7 eats up our OL, even after the bye week.

We handle the rest.

 

Raiders scare me more than Seattle does

 

I like your optimism. I thought before Bell was injured and Ben coming back could be 10-6. The loss to the bungles was devastating. I feel more 9-7/ 8-8 at this point. The only game that matters at this point is Oakland.

 

I wouldn't be surprised one bit if we ended up 8-8 again. We're capable of that just a bit less than we're capable of going 12-4. I think if Ben can regain his efficiency that he displayed before Bell went down (and in his previous 3 games) then we will trend closer to 12 wins than 8.

 

If the Steelers go 9-7, they're conf record will be no better than 6-6. If your scenario plays out, and the Jers finish 9-7 by beating Jax, Mia, Tn and Buffalo, that gives them 7 Conf wins. and if the Raiders get to 9-7 by beating KC, SD and Tn that gives them 7 conf wins.

This would give a 3 way tie (Pit, Oak, NYJ) for the 2 WCs. Head to Head goes out the window as there is no head to head sweep, and Pit didn't play NYJ. So it comes down to conf record and the Steelers are out.

 

I think 8-8 will make the playoffs in the AFC. But we won't make it with an 8-8 record. Our tiebreakers are horrible right now. I think 9-7 would be enough for us. The AFC is pretty lousy outside of the Broncos and Patriots.

 

I think you are right - I didn't read what was in the brackets, head to head would only seem to apply if they all have played each other...i.e. Steelers playing Jets and Raiders, Raiders playing Jets and Steelers, Jets playing Raiders and Steelers.

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

 

Our record was 11-5 as the 6th seed, and we never won a superbowl with a 9-7 record, the worst regular season record we ever had and won a superbowl was in 74 when it was a 14 game season and we were 10-3-1 and beat the vikes for our first superbowl win.....

 

I think we could easily finish 11-5 or 10-6 and come down to tie breakers.... problem is... I could easily see us finishing 8-8 as well.