Edge Rushers in More Depth

Insomnia gave me some extra free time this week, so I watched just about everything I could find on a bunch of edge rushers that could realistically be available to us at various points in the draft. I left out Fowler and Beasley because I had limited time, and I simply can’t imagine either of those guys falling outside of the top 10 – 12 picks unless one of them suddenly develops a weed problem ala Randy Gregory. Therefore, for those two guys I’m standing on my earlier film study, which told me that they are top 10 picks. Here are my impressions on the rest:

Shane Ray, Missouri – I’ve been reading that there’s a chance (albeit slight) that Ray could make to our spot at #22, or at least get close enough to where we could get him by trading a 3[SUP]rd[/SUP]. From what I’ve read, 4-3 teams are concerned that he’s too light to play DE, and 3-4 teams are concerned that he doesn’t have the lateral agility to drop into coverage. Supposedly he did some drills at his pro day to demonstrate his ability to drop into space, but since I don’t have access to tape of those workouts I’ll have to go with what I see on game tape – and in the 4 games that watched I can count on two fingers the number of times that I saw him drop into coverage. Anyway, setting aside coverage, the guy is a flat out beast. In a couple of the games I didn’t see much from him early, but as the game went on he took over and started abusing the left tackle. Watch the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter of the Florida game and see how he just owns DJ Humphries. I think Ray sets up left tackles by changing speeds much the way a pitcher does in baseball. I see him getting caught up in the trash for several plays, and then a critical 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down arises and he blasts by the left tackle like he’s standing still and makes a game changing play. The thing is, he makes a LOT of game changing plays, and that’s what you want from your edge rushers. The guy absolutely owns the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter of games. He obviously has no problems with conditioning. His run defense is solid, but unspectacular. He’s no JH in run defense, but I suppose he could be with a bit of coaching. If he does indeed have the capability to cover, I wouldn’t hesitate to trade a 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] rounder to move up and get him. Heck, I might even trade a 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] or 2 3rds. Based on what I watched, I do think that he has the quickness and agility to cover – I just didn’t see him actually do it. He is cat-quick though. He’s going to be a really good pro, and after re-watching a bunch of his games I’m calling BS on the “scouts” who seem to think he’ll fall in the draft. My prediction is that he goes in the latter half of the top 10.

Alvin “Bud” Dupree, Kentucky – After re-watching some of his games, I’m sticking with my assessment. Dupree is raw, and lacking technique, but is a prospect with huge upside. I think his raw physical skill set are at the level of a #1 overall pick, although his play on the field to date has been way below that of a #1 pick. At times he dominates his man and makes big plays, but he often seems late to diagnose the play and make his move. I don’t see problems with his effort or raw talent, I see problems with his technique and perhaps his understanding his responsibilities on any given play. These are things that coaches can work with. A few years ago I would have severely downgraded a guy like Dupree, but after downgrading guys like him in the past who ended up being good pros (see Jamie Collins, Chandler Jones), I’ve learned to look past a lack of production and try to figure out why there’s a lack of production. I place Dupree’s value right around where we’re picking at #22. I don’t think a team in the top 15 that needs an immediate starter should take him, but a team with good coaching at the OLB/DE position should have a solid contributor in late 2015, and solid starter in 2016 with a pretty high ceiling for pro-bowl level development down the road. With JH coming back, we don’t absolutely need a day 1 starter at OLB in this draft. I would pull the trigger on him at #22 without hesitation.

Randy Gregory, Nebraska – He would be high on my list if not for his fascination with plant matter. I think Gregory was a bit overrated early in the draft process. He’s a very good edge rusher, and is solid setting the edge in run defense, but I don’t see top 10 talent there (even if clean). From what I saw, he has a variety of pass rushing moves. He is able to use his long arms and knee bend to get leverage against tackles both inside and outside, and once he’s free he quickly attacks the QB. However I don’t see the flat our explosion that I see in Ray, Beasley and Fowler, and I think he lacks that elite first step that’s needed to consistently beat NFL left tackles. I generally like the way that he engages the tackle at the line of scrimmage to turn running plays inside of him. Next to Fowler, I think Gregory is the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] best of the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] round edge rusher prospects at setting and holding the edge in run defense. I peg his pre-weed value at around 15 – 20. Now, I’m not sure that I would take him at #22. The player on the field is easily worth that spot, but is the player going to be on the field? If we were able to trade down and pick up a 3[SUP]rd[/SUP], then I’d be more comfortable taking him later in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP].

Owamagbe Odighizuwa, UCLA – This kid is an absolute beast in run defense. I would say that he’s easily the best run defender out of the edge rushing prospects that I’ve watched. You can plug him in day 1 and have a guy who can hold his ground in run defense against NFL left tackles. He consistently stands his opponent up, and then disengages to make the play on the ballcarrier near or behind the line of scrimmage. I would even go as far as to call him an elite run defender by pure edge rusher standards. Here’s where the question marks begin for me. First, his pass rushing techniques are immature, and he doesn’t seem to have the explosive first step to beat NFL tackles. I think he’s a pure power rusher. To me he is similar to Bud Dupree in the immaturity of his pass rushing techniques, but I see more quickness and ability to move laterally in Dupree (and more raw power in Odighizuwa). I also really question whether he can be a 3-4 OLB. He looks to me like a pure 4-3 DE. I’ve seen some folks post about the Steelers saying that we will be doing a lot more 4 man fronts under Butler, but I haven’t read anything “official” on that. IF we are truly moving toward more of a hybrid front type of scheme, then I can see the fit. If not, I’d rather pass on this kid and let him go to a 4-3 team where he can impact better. Really good player though.

Eli Harold, Virginia – I’m seeing Harold move up toward the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] round of some of the online big boards, and I just don’t get it. After watching a lot of tape, I see a legit 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] round prospect. I do not see a 1[SUP]st[/SUP] rounder at all. Harold is solid at both rushing the passer and stopping the run, however he doesn’t look spectacular at either. His effort looks great, and his technique is pretty decent for a college edge player. So, when I watch him and see him usually stuck engaged on an O lineman, and not impacting the play, I wondered if he simply a notch short in both his strength and quickness. A check of his combine numbers (and 24 bench reps at his pro day) showed that he actually has plenty of measurable talent. So what’s wrong? To me it must be a lack of lower body strength. His physique looks more like that of a 4-3 LB than an edge rusher (especially his skinny legs), and I just can’t help thinking that he’s going to be a pro player that simply doesn’t have the sand in his pants to play on the edge. He might be worth a shot in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] because there is talent there, but no way do I see him as a first rounder.

Haoli Kikaha, Washington – This is a player that you have to root for because of the relentless effort he gives right up to the whistle on every play. I want him to be a good NFL player, and I think he will be at least a decent NFL player. The question is, will he be good enough to take at #22? I just don’t think so. To me he’s a finished product. His techniques look mature. He already has a full arsenal of inside and outside pass rush moves, and he already uses his hands against blockers about as well as it’s possible to use them. To me, he may never be a better player than he is right now, and while he’s been productive in college, I’m not sure that he has the physical talent to be anywhere near that productive in the NFL. I don’t think there’s room for him to improve his technique or quickness much, but he can improve his strength and size, and to me that’s his path to improvement. However, that particular path to improvement leads him more towards being a 4-3 end than 3-4 OLB IMO. That’s where I see his path to being an NFL starter – as an eventual 4-3 end in the Rob Ninkovich mold. That’s how I see it anyway.

Markus Golden, Missouri – In watching Shane Ray, I also got the chance to watch quite a bit of Markus Golden, and he intrigued me enough to go back and watch 3 games with a focus on him. In my view, Golden will stick in the NFL. He’s a very strong power rusher who really knows how to use his hands to keep linemen at a distance. I watched him consistently power right tackles back toward the QB, and consistently beat RT/TE double teams. He is strong setting the edge in the run game, but not quite as good (yet) against the run as a true NFL strong side 4-3 DE. I think he’s a legit 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] – 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] round talent for a 4-3 team. I’m not sure that I see the fit for us though. He is noticeably slow in space, and I simply can’t see him playing off the line. He is a guy who needs to be moving forward to be effective. If we were a 4-3 team, I’d say grab him.

These are the guys that I’ve had the opportunity to watch in detail over the past few days. I’ve watched a bit of tape on other guys like Mauldin and Orchard, and want to watch a bit more before establishing firm opinions on them. I also want to look at some of the later round prospects. When watching Harold, Max Valles from Virginia (the edge guy opposite Harold) caught my eye a bit. I also want to see Emanuel for North Dakota State.

 

25 reps. Along with his 39" vertical, and 10'7" broad jump, that gives him an explosion index of just under 75, which is great.

 

Thanks all for the nice comments on this. I've now had some time to watch what's out there on Orchard and Emanuel:

Nate Orchard, Utah - Every year I learn the lesson that my first impressions can sometimes be off the mark, and it's good to go back and watch the tape in a lot more detail. Well, I've had time to watch all 3 of Orchard's games on draftbreakdown.com multiple times, and I have come away very impressed. Am I ready to stick him in at #22? Maybe not quite, but I like him better than any other edge rusher who is likely to be available for us at #22. Against Stanford he had 3 sacks, including beating Andrus Peat twice. For the first half of that game, Orchard's pass rush was pretty much being neutralized by Peat and Stanford's right tackle. However, as the game went on Orchard started to make play after play. Instead of being worn down, he was the guy wearing down the O-linemen who were trying to block him (including Peat). He is very good against the run. He holds his edge against outside and off tackle runs very well. He also shows tremendous discipline when run plays go the opposite side of the field, sliding down the line of scrimmage in a controlled slide to keep the cutback lane closed. Often college edge rushers don't understand their role in that situation and give up big yardage on cutbacks. In run defense, I think he's the second best edge rusher that I've watched behind only OO. He even (sort of ) drops into coverage, but that's pretty far down on the priority list for us. I had originally pegged him as a pure 4-3 end, but after watching the film over and over I see enough lateral agility to be a solid OLB in a 3-4 scheme. I don't know if we're looking at him, but we should be. Honestly, when given OO's medical concerns, and my view that OO is much more a 4-3 end than an OLB, I would take Orchard over OO. Good player.

Kyle Emanuel, North Dakota State - There is only 1 game of his on draftbreakdown.com, and that's the FCS semi against Sam Houston State. What I saw I liked, at least in the context of a 6th or later round pick. He is a solid, active and high effort football player, and I think he has a chance of making an NFL roster. He didn't have a dominant performance in that game, but he was always causing problems for the left tackle, and I think that led to his teammates being freed up to make more plays. One game is a pretty small sample size though, and the FCS is the FCS, so I have to temper my enthusiasm for him a little bit.

 

Where you say "opportunistic" I would say "savvy," and having the necessary lateral agility to turn that savvy into good plays in (primarily) zone coverage. We certainly don't need our OLBs to be man on man coverage guys, but they should be savvy enough to drop into a zone and understand what receivers are headed their way, and where the passing lanes are going to be. Harrison was not good in man coverage, but he was very savvy in handling zone duties, and that's what led to his pick 6 of Warner in the SB. He was aware of the passing lane as soon as Fitzgerald ran his pick move to allow Boldin to slip inside. When I look the college DEs who are conversion prospects, they usually don't drop into coverage at all, so I'm looking for lateral agility on plays where the QB scrambles or a running play gets bounced outside. Does the guy have the ability to react quickly to a change in direction and change his own direction smoothly and quickly? If I don't see that, then I'm thinking 4-3 DE all the way. If I see that, then I'm thinking that as long as he's got good football aptitude he should be OK covering a zone. Now sometimes LeBeau did put our OLBs into bad situations in man coverage. I remember us losing a game a few years ago largely because we had JH literally chasing Jared Cook across the field in man coverage on a deep crossing pattern. That type of mismatch should really never happen.

 

Thanks. I'll take a look at Hodges and Riddick. I also need to look at a few other guys like Valles and Danielle Hunter. I particularly want to understand why Hunter's actual production is so out of whack with his raw physical talent.

 

OK, I got around to Hodges and Riddick. Both are tough to evaluate, but for different reasons. With Hodges, there's plenty of tape out there, but the level of competition is not what you see with the big boys. With Riddick, there's 1 game out there on draftbreakdown.com and some highlights from when he was at Gardner-Webb. I can probably find more of him by watching other WVU players' tape, but with so little time before the draft and so many projects to watch I'm not going to try to find it.

Zach Hodges, Harvard - I watched both 2014 games and the 2013 game vs. Brown. The good - physically, he's like a man among boys at his level of college competition. He usually dominates linemen with speed and power, and draws a lot of double teams, but still gets into the backfield consistently. He makes a solid effort and never gives up on a play, and that allows him to sometimes make tackles on plays run away from him that loafers won't get anywhere near. He also shows good awareness of his responsibilities vs. the run, and rarely gets himself out of position (There was a lot of read option run against him, and he never fell for the fakes). The bad - He's just not NFL ready in any way, so unless he's a ST standout he'll need to live on the practice squad for a year or more. He plays high. He beats linemen when he tries to penetrate because he's just that much better of an athlete, but doesn't always hold up against run blocking, especially down blocking. He takes maddening angles to the QB, and in 3 games I saw him leave at least 3 or 4 sacks on the table by flying by the QB in an undisciplined manner. All in all he's a very nice OLB project, but you have to draft him the knowledge that he's a project, and will almost certainly need to be exposed to poaching on the practice squad. So, when do you draft him, or do you at all? I say the 6th round is where his value starts to kick in.

Shaquille Riddick, West Virginia - Similar to Hodges, he is a project. I watched the Baylor game, which was statistically his big game of the season with 3 sacks. The problem is that he was unblocked on 2 of the 3 sacks, and the other was a coverage sack. In that game he flashed enough ability to show that he has legit talent, but those flashes were infrequent. In his defense, he was double teamed often on deeper passing drops, so Baylor clearly had him as the #1 focus of their pass protection. His pro day results are posted on his NFL.com draft profile, and they're pretty nice numbers: 4.65 40, 4.28 shuttle, 10'4" broad, 36" vert, 6.8 3-cone (which is a really good time) and 19 bench reps. There's a player with high potential in there. I think he was probably a UDFA before the pro day, but someone is going to look at his tape and the numbers and say "I can do something with him." That team will take him in the 6th or 7th. If that team is us, I'll be fine with it - just understand that, like Hodges, he's a guy that will need to be exposed on the PS for at least a year.