Thank you Houston

Thank you so much. I really am now rooting for you to get a chance at the PO's.

Why all this sudden love for the Texans? Well, reality finally set in on me.

I had not really paid any close attention to PO scenarios since 2000. Being content to wait until all games were played then taking a look late Sunday the final week and it was always very easy to know what's what. I am not positive but I do believe that at one time the conference record was before the common games in division ties. I thought this was still the case. It is not. The common games is before the conference record in the DIVISION tie breaker. [It is not in the Wild Card tb''s]

Now why the love for Houston? Well it is so simple [ Yeah, really after I looked at it at least a thousand times]

Going into the Houston game Bal was 8-4 in CG's. Pit was already 9-4 playing KC a non common game. Had Bal won that game they also would now be 9-4. Tied and yes the next tb was the conference record easily won by Pit. However before it came into play there was one more game. Bal-Cle Pit-Cin. In the event Bal beats Cle 10-4 CG , the only way Pit wins the tie breaker over Bal is by winning the Cin game 10-4 again a tie.

Then not only is this final game for a possible 3rd seed with the 5th seed already clinched but not winning the game could possibly have spelled elimination period. TY you again Houston.

I was just going to let the post end right after the TY you again Houston. Then everyone would say Chainmover1 is talking OOHA. [no idea if that is in the net acronym dictionary but I am pretty sure most know what it is] so a little explanation.

Bal beats Hou record 10-5 Pit beats KC 10-5. Head to Head 1-1 Tied. Div record Bal 2-3 Pit 3-2 with both teams playing one more division game. Bal beats Cle 3-3 Pit does not beat Cinci 3-3. Then what???

Here is a quick accurate summary now of the PO scenarios from CBS sports.

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Cincinnati can clinch the AFC North division title with:
1) CIN win or tie

Cincinnati can clinch a first-round bye with:
1) CIN win + DEN loss or tie
2) CIN tie + DEN loss + IND loss or tie

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Pittsburgh can clinch the AFC North division title with:
1) PIT win

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

San Diego can clinch a playoff spot with:
1) SD win
2) SD tie + BAL loss or tie

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Baltimore can clinch a playoff spot with:
1) BAL win + SD loss or tie
2) BAL tie + SD loss

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Kansas City can clinch a playoff spot with:
1) KC win + BAL loss + HOU loss or tie

HOUSTON TEXANS

Houston can clinch a playoff spot with:
1) HOU win + BAL loss + SD loss

Go Houston Go! Not trying to pick an opponent or anything here but GHG.

Anyway, even if the above is not correct, the real point of this thread is WHY is the common games thing ahead of the conference record in the Division PO tie breakers.

Whose idea was it? Is it really better? IDTS! If it is better then why?

 

I really like Houston's coach and what he did at Penn State. He is a rising talented coach that will help The Texans get to where they want to go.

 

For me it was because I did not know that the common games tie breaker was before the conference record. Believe me, I was seeing a lot of posts that had TS [the Steelers] winning the tie breaker with Bal and no mention of the common game factor.

The Steeler game ended much sooner than the Bal-Hou game. There was almost 10 minutes left when I started watching it. That was probably the reason that Playoff Machine was showing Baltimore ahead of TS. There was a half hour or more while Bal could still end up with a projected 10-4 in the common games. But they lost and 9-5 is the best they can do.

The score was 25-6 and no sooner I watched a minute Bal scored and made it 25-12. I thought lookout here goes another huge comeback and turned it off immediately. I left the house and went down to one of the Steeler bars in the area and a half hour or so later found out Hou had won the game which officially clinched a wild card spot for TS.

There was a thread that tried to explain it but there was also a lot of not correct stuff in it including mine.

But the questions is:

Does anyone think the common game tie breaker is fairer than the conference records as a tie breaker?

Consider this. There are 14 common games for each team in every division. The only two that are not common are the seeded games. How fair is it for one team to have both games vs #1 seeds [possible losses] not counted. Does this not contradict the NFL concept of giving weaker teams some measure of equalization. Next thing you know Kraft [NE owner] will have the league reversing the draft order.

 

under this scenario the team that lost to the two first place teams likely wins the common games tiebreaker. Say two teams each are 10-6. If team A lost said two games, than their record in common opponents would be 10-4. Whereas if team B won both of said games versus an inferior opponent than their common opponent record would be 8-6.

 

Exactly!

I saw this earlier but had to go somewhere. It is what I was trying to say. It would even hurt more to lose out on this tie breaker when you have an 8-3 to 5-6 conference record lead.

To finish this off now, everyone is saying if the Steelers win Sunday they are the 3rd seed, if not, they are the 5th seed. That is for certain. But I bet not too many know why.

5th seed---Bal 10-6 Pit 10-6 Cinci 11-4-1 wins div. TB's: #1 H-H 1-1 Tie #2 Div 3-3 Tie #3 Common Games Bal 9-5 Pit 9-5 Tie [yep both end up 9-5] and the Steelers easily win the #4 conference record TB'er/

I don't know if I said this earlier or not, but the loss to the New York Jets was the best thing that happened to the Steelers this year. [It did not count as a loss---not a common opponent]

The point: Both methods are reasonable to determine a winner. I just happen to think that the conference record is better and am puzzled why they changed it.

 

Actually the loss to the jets is the one thing from keeping us at having a chance at the 2 seed.... broncos beat the jets....we lost...

 

Teams in the same division play 14 common opponents and only 12 conference games,that is probably why common opponents is used before conference games to break a tie

 

That makes sense. That is probably the reason then to break the wild card tie they use the conference 12 games instead of the 4 or 5 at most common games. [someone did mention that]

14-12 okay. But they conveniently left out the top teams two toughest games.

12 -14 okay. Then why would they not use the Strength of Victory thing. That includes all 16 games and might just be the truest indicator of team strength of them all? Best part is it is easy to figure out.

I saw a thread that did the tb's between Den and Pit. It was real easy. They use the wild card formula when teams are in different divisions. H-H out div out 9-3 conf record Tied common games 4-1 Tied Strength of Victory Denver. I was not sure how THEY did it but all I did was add up the wins and it was Den 84[L-Oak] Pit 77[W -Cin].

I did fool around with the numbers to get the exact % but of course that was unnecessary. Both play the same number of games and if you win more games the % has to be higher. Really it was easier than figuring those common games.

But anyway to finish this up. What it comes down to is is 10 games are identical. In the CG's the four NFC games are used. In the Conference Record the two important AFC seeded games are used.

I would hope they take another look at this at their meeting and maybe change it back.

btw: ty Houston