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Playoff Race

Discussion in 'Steelers Talk' started by Real steel, Nov 3, 2014.

  1. TerribleTowelFlying

    TerribleTowelFlying Staff Member Site Admin Mod Team

    22,814
    2,087
    Oct 12, 2011
    Oh no you don't...I am not going to get sucked into that black hole for the next two hours.

    <Bookmarked for return after lunch>
     
  2. Real steel

    Real steel Well-Known Member

    2,638
    70
    Dec 9, 2012

    Love the scenerio if all the home teams win steelers will get the 2nd seed
     
  3. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

    15,819
    4,545
    Nov 4, 2011
    It's hard to create a scenario where we go 4-1 down the stretch and don't get in at 11-5. However, if we go 3-2 and finish 10-6 it seems like closer to a 50/50 chance. If we finish 11-5, and our loss is to an NFC team, our odds of winning the division look pretty good unless the Ravens manage to win out.
     
  4. PWP

    PWP Well-Known Member

    5,804
    453
    Oct 26, 2011
    It only gets you for 2 Hours ? I start looking at the NFC as well and then Division round match ups possible championship match ups and finally all potential Super bowl match ups...Way to early to Invest those 6 or 7 hours...lol..
     
  5. bim94

    bim94 Active Member

    32
    0
    Nov 22, 2011

    More like 75/25 if we go 10-6.

    http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/steelerswhatif.html

    Plus, the odds increase if one of our two losses down the stretch were to an NFC team. I think people underestimate the cannibalism that's about to occur among the nine 6 / 7 win teams in the AFC. It will be very difficult for any one team out of this group to win four more games....much less the five teams required to fill the open playoff spots.
     
  6. Steel_in_DC

    Steel_in_DC Well-Known Member

    764
    14
    Jan 27, 2012
    If the Steelers finish 10-6 their chances of getting in will likely hinge on how Baltimore finishes out and that game with Kansas City.

    San Diego is going to have a hard time getting to 10 wins considering they still have to play Denver, SF, KC, and Baltimore with three of those being on the road. Even St. Louis is no guarantee this weekend.

    We will really see what Cleveland is about these next few weeks and with Josh Gordon back the offense will be better, but I still think that defense is really suspect.

    Miami is pretty solid but playing NE and Denver on the road is asking a lot which would mean they would need to run the table against Minnesota (H), Jets (H), Baltimore (H), and Jets (A). That is asking a lot as well as the Jets are a big rivalry game and thus a split is plausible and of course Baltimore is pretty much a FG difference game.

    The thing about Baltimore is they are a team that is pretty reliable in beating teams they should beat. So when you look at their schedule they have home games where they will be a solid favorite against the Chargers, Jags, and Browns. Assuming they win those they need to win one against the Saints, Dolphins, and Texans. I think in most scenarios of the playoff predictor if the Steelers are tied with the Ravens the Ravens get the nod. The secondary for Baltimore is really beat up, but out of those teams you can only see the Saints really torching their secondary and they just lost their starting rookie WR.

    KC has a pretty tough schedule as well with games against Denver, Arizona, SD, and Pittsburgh ... also a game against Oakland at home. KC like the Steelers are a bit Jekyll and Hyde, but when they have played well they look really good as witnessed in those wins over the Pats and Seahawks.

    If the Steelers finish 10-6 the best bet to get there is probably winning one against either the Saints or Falcons and winning 2 of 3 against the Bengals - Away, Bengals - Home, and Chiefs. If the Steelers do that, my bet is they make it - switch it to beating both NFC teams and losing 2 of 3 against the AFC teams I think their odds of getting in are slim.
     
  7. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

    15,819
    4,545
    Nov 4, 2011
    That's an interesting site. I like 75% better than 50%, but I'd certainly prefer to just keep winning and avoid week #17 drama (like hoping a field goal kicker on another team doesn't "succop" and send us home).
     
  8. DSteelerCT

    DSteelerCT Well-Known Member

    4,189
    191
    Nov 15, 2011
    I just had a wave of optimism while on a boring tech call, and I have decided the Steelers are winning the Super Bowl this year. Congrats to Steelers Nation!!
     
  9. tarheelsteel

    tarheelsteel Well-Known Member

    280
    0
    Oct 16, 2011
    So I've spent way too much time on the playoff machine and I came up with one scenario where if we lose at the Bengals we are out of the playoffs and if we win we're the #1 seed. That's pretty extreme!
     
  10. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

    15,819
    4,545
    Nov 4, 2011
    If I go with every game the way that I expect them to go, I come up with:

    1. New England (13-3); 2. Denver (12-4); 3. Baltimore (12-4); 4. Indy (11-5); 5. Steelers (10-6); 6. KC (10-6)
    1. Green Bay (13-3); 2. Arizona (12-4); 3. Philly (11-5); 4. New Orleans (8-8); 5. Seattle (11-5); 6. Detroit (11-5) - Dallas and San Fran both miss the playoffs at 11-5 (ouch!)
     
  11. fanforlife

    fanforlife

    1,589
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    Sep 5, 2012
    I think we can be sure Baltimore will not win out and go 12-4. I don't think they will be close to 12-4. I'm thinking more like 10-6 for those losers,
     
  12. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

    15,819
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    Nov 4, 2011
    I'd like to see them lose some games, but they are probably the better team in all of their remaining match ups. They tend to win the games they're supposed to win.
     
  13. pjgruden

    pjgruden

    4,046
    360
    Oct 16, 2011
    I was fiddling around with this. If my picks were spot on the whole way, it looks like this:
    [h=3]AFC[/h][h=4]FIRST-ROUND BYES[/h]
    1st Seed
    Pittsburgh
    Proj: 11-5




    2nd Seed
    New England
    Proj: 11-5




    [h=5]WILD-CARD GAMES[/h]
    6th Seed
    Miami
    Proj: 10-6



    @
    3rd Seed
    Denver
    Proj: 10-6




    5th Seed
    Houston
    Proj: 10-6



    @
    4th Seed
    Indianapolis
    Proj: 10-6




    [h=3]NFC[/h][h=4]FIRST-ROUND BYES[/h]
    1st Seed
    Arizona
    Proj: 13-3




    2nd Seed
    Green Bay
    Proj: 12-4




    [h=5]WILD-CARD GAMES[/h]
    6th Seed
    San Francisco
    Proj: 10-6



    @
    3rd Seed
    Philadelphia
    Proj: 12-4




    5th Seed
    Detroit
    Proj: 11-5



    @
    4th Seed
    New Orleans
    Proj: 8-8






     
  14. Real steel

    Real steel Well-Known Member

    2,638
    70
    Dec 9, 2012
    How the hell did we go from 6th to 8th ughhhh
    Dam jets game
     
  15. contract

    contract Well-Known Member

    2,185
    16
    Jan 11, 2014
    Week 17 will be epic.

    Bengals @ Steelers

    Browns @ Ravens

    All 4 teams still likely in playoff contention.


    btw I think we get in unless we just collapse and lose 3 games down the stretch.
     
  16. contract

    contract Well-Known Member

    2,185
    16
    Jan 11, 2014
  17. bigsteelerfaninky

    bigsteelerfaninky Well-Known Member

    7,170
    336
    Oct 24, 2011
    ugghh 9th seed currently

    [TABLE="class: data"]
    [TR="class: title"]
    [TD="colspan: 4, align: left"]AFC[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: label"]
    [TD="align: left"]Seed[/TD]
    [TD]Team[/TD]
    [TD="align: center"]Division[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]Record[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: row1"]
    [TD="align: left"]1[/TD]
    [TD][​IMG] New England
    [/TD]
    [TD="align: center"]East[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]9-3-0[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: row2"]
    [TD="align: left"]2[/TD]
    [TD][​IMG] Denver
    [/TD]
    [TD="align: center"]West[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]8-3-0[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: row1"]
    [TD="align: left"]3[/TD]
    [TD][​IMG] Cincinnati
    [/TD]
    [TD="align: center"]North[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]8-3-1[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: row2"]
    [TD="align: left"]4[/TD]
    [TD][​IMG] Indianapolis
    [/TD]
    [TD="align: center"]South[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]8-4-0[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: row1"]
    [TD="align: left"]5[/TD]
    [TD][​IMG] San Diego
    [/TD]
    [TD="align: center"]West[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]8-4-0[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: row2"]
    [TD="align: left"]6[/TD]
    [TD][​IMG] Kansas City
    [/TD]
    [TD="align: center"]West[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]7-4-0[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: subtitle"]
    [TD="colspan: 4, align: left"]
    Still Alive[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: label"]
    [TD="align: left"]Seed[/TD]
    [TD]Team[/TD]
    [TD="align: center"]Division[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]Record[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: row1"]
    [TD="align: left"]7[/TD]
    [TD][​IMG] Buffalo
    [/TD]
    [TD="align: center"]East[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]7-5-0[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: row2"]
    [TD="align: left"]8[/TD]
    [TD][​IMG] Baltimore
    [/TD]
    [TD="align: center"]North[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]7-5-0[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: row1"]
    [TD="align: left"]9[/TD]
    [TD][​IMG] Pittsburgh
    [/TD]
    [TD="align: center"]North[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]7-5-0[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: row2"]
    [TD="align: left"]10[/TD]
    [TD][​IMG] Cleveland
    [/TD]
    [TD="align: center"]North[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]7-5-0[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: row1"]
    [TD="align: left"]11[/TD]
    [TD] Miami

    [/TD]
    [TD="align: center"]East[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]6-5-0[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: row2"]
    [TD="align: left"]12[/TD]
    [TD] Houston

    [/TD]
    [TD="align: center"]South[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]6-6-0[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
     
  18. Real steel

    Real steel Well-Known Member

    2,638
    70
    Dec 9, 2012
    K

    we will be 11 seed and out of the playoffs after we lose to Cincinnati next week
     
  19. STEELWARRIOR

    STEELWARRIOR Well-Known Member

    3,647
    543
    Oct 26, 2011
    Seed????????

    were not even being considered to be any where near to being in any playoff mix after today's meltdown. we will lose next week and finish 8-8 only win KC
     
  20. dobbler-33

    dobbler-33 Well-Known Member

    5,353
    1,370
    Nov 13, 2011
    Looking like sad sacks...
     
  21. freakfontana

    freakfontana

    5,445
    23
    Oct 19, 2011

    kc has one of the best defense in the league .. could be a nightmare
     
  22. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

    15,819
    4,545
    Nov 4, 2011
    I played around with the ESPN playoff simulator again. I gave Denver the win tonight, Miami the win tomorrow night, and had us lose to Cinci next week and then sweep our last 3 to get to 10-6. I picked who I thought would win each game in weeks 14-17. What ended up happening in my simulation is that the Charger/Chief game in week 17 determined whether or not we would get in. A Charger win, and we're out. A Chief win, and we're in. Obviously it's not likely that things would actually come together that way, but could you imagine beating the Bengals in week 17 to get to 10-6, and then have to once again wait on the result of the Chargers vs. Chiefs? Good thing Succop is gone...
     
  23. TerribleTowelFlying

    TerribleTowelFlying Staff Member Site Admin Mod Team

    22,814
    2,087
    Oct 12, 2011
    Man, could you imagine??
     
  24. TerribleTowelFlying

    TerribleTowelFlying Staff Member Site Admin Mod Team

    22,814
    2,087
    Oct 12, 2011
  25. Rush2seven

    Rush2seven Well-Known Member

    13,237
    1,963
    Oct 17, 2011
    Without using a playoff machine, here are my predictions, assuming the absolute best by the Steelers:

    Week 14
    Steelers at Bengals – Steelers win (8-5) Bengals lose (8-4-1)
    Ravens at Dolphins – Dolphins win (8-5) Ravens lose (7-6) *assumes Dolphins beat Jets tonight
    Colts at Browns – Browns lose (7-6)
    Bills at Broncos – Bills lose (7-6)
    Chiefs at Cardinals – Chiefs win (8-5)
    Patriots at Chargers – Chargers lose (8-5)

    Week 15
    Steelers at Falcons – Steelers win (9-5)
    Dolphins at Patriots – Dolphins lose (8-6)
    Raiders at Chiefs – Chiefs win (9-5)
    Jaguars at Ravens – Ravens win (8-6)
    Bengals at Browns – Bengals lose (8-5-1) Browns win (8-6)
    Broncos at Chargers – Chargers lose (8-6)
    Packers at Bills – Bills lose (7-7)

    Week 16
    Chargers at 49ers – Chargers win (9-6)
    Vikings at Dolphins – Dolphins win (9-6)
    Ravens at Texans – Ravens win (9-6)
    Browns at Panthers – Browns win (9-6)
    Chiefs at Steelers – Steelers win (10-5) Chiefs lose (9-6)
    Broncos at Bengals – Bengals lose (8-6-1)
    Bills at Raiders – Bills win (8-7)

    Week 17
    Browns at Ravens – Browns lose (9-7) Ravens win (10-6)
    Chargers at Chiefs – Chargers win (10-6) Chiefs lose (9-7)
    Jets at Dolphins – Dolphins win (10-6)
    Bills at Patriots – Bills lose (8-8)
    Bengals at Steelers – Bengals lose (8-7-1) Steelers win (11-5)

    In this scenario, Steelers win the division, and the Superbowl, because, why not.
    Now, assume the Steelers finish 10-6, splitting with the Bengals. They would be tied with the Ravens, head to head is a split, div record for both would be 3-3.
    Next is common games – Steelers lost to Jets and beat Chiefs, therefore their record in common games would be 8-4. Under this scenario, Ravens lost to Chargers and Dolphins, so their record in common games would be 9-3. Rats win division. If the Steelers sweep the Bengals, but finish 10-6, they will win the division. If both teams finish 11-5, Steelers win the division.
    For the wildcard, they would be tied with Dolphins and Chargers. Since Steelers didn’t play either club, the tiebreaker would go to conference record. Which, if the Chargers lose to the 49ers, all three teams would have an 8-4 conference record. After that, I’m not sure.

    Bottom line, if the Steelers win out, they are in. If they don’t, they will need help, a lot of help. Very likely that a 10 win team, does not make it to the dance this year.
     

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