AFCN Title; Hmmm

Can the Steelers hope that both the Ravens and Bengals end up with 'low floors'?

AFC North odds, projections: Could Steelers challenge Ravens, Bengals for division title? - The Athletic

AFC North odds, projections: Could Steelers challenge Ravens, Bengals for division title?
By Austin Mock
Aug. 25, 2026

A quick glance at the AFC North odds-board would suggest it’s either the Baltimore Ravens’ or Cincinnati Bengals’ to lose — but that’s also what the odds-board indicated heading into last season, before the Pittsburgh Steelers emerged victorious.

Listed at +510 odds that give them around a 15 percent implied probability to win, major sportsbooks like DraftKings aren’t ruling the Steelers out, and neither is The Athletic’s predictive analyst Austin Mock. Let’s dive into how his model projects every AFC North team’s chances to win the division, make the playoffs and more.



It’s a long shot, but it’s entirely possible the Steelers could win the AFC North.

First, the roster is actually in pretty decent shape. It skews older, but there are still quality players on both sides of the ball. The offense has plenty of weapons with DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. at wide receiver, Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington at tight end, and Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle at running back. The offensive line is in pretty good shape as well. And while the linebacker group is average, the secondary has a good foundation and the defensive line has enough depth and potential to be awesome.

Of course, I left out a pretty important position. Aaron Rodgers’ prime is well behind him, but his reunion with Mike McCarthy could spark something. I wouldn’t say McCarthy is an elite offensive mind, but he has the ability to raise the offensive floor in Pittsburgh. And when you give him this much talent, there is a chance the Steelers could be around average (or slightly above). Would that good enough to win the division? I’m not sure. But paired with what should be a top-10 defense, they’re certainly good enough to challenge the Ravens and Bengals.

Another angle to factor in is that Baltimore and Cincinnati have pretty low floors.

Lamar Jackson was banged up last season and never quite seemed right. What if that spills into this season? Then you look at the Ravens’ offensive line and all of its question marks. The 32-year-old Derrick Henry has to eventually slow down. And the defense couldn’t generate pressure without blitzing last year. I’m bullish on coach Jesse Minter, and the addition of Trey Hendrickson should help, but that doesn’t guarantee a top-10 defense.

The team I’m most worried about is the Bengals. We know the offense is going to be really good if it’s healthy. And the Bengals finally added to a poor defense by trading for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence and adding pass rusher Boye Mafe in free agency. The Bengals were 14th in expected points added (EPA) per play on defense in the second half of last season, so I do believe they improve. But what if they don’t? And they’re still a well below average defense?

All of those possibilities are well within the range of outcomes, which gives me enough confidence to say the Steelers could defend their AFC North title. Is it likely? Probably not. But it’s possible.

 

Tankathon has us picking 9th overall in 2027 NFL draft. That means 5 to 7 wins is their projection. So, there is that.

 

On our way to drafting a franchise QB.

 

The March for Arch.

 

It will not happen but best case scenario,the steelers trade Porter Jr for a first round pick and this team become bad in 2026!

 

Thing about NCAA football... is some other QB besides Arch could come out of nowhere and be the top pick for 2027. Plus Arch may max out his college years, since he can make a sh!tload of money in the NCAA. This is happening in college basketball too... kids are staying in school, to make bank.

 

How is trading our best young player, and sucking our best case scenario??
Geez Im glad you don't run the team

 

@S.T.D


I meant that if we trade Porter Jr for a first round pick, the team that gave us a first round pick will be bad in 2026 (not us, sorry for my grammatical error)...similar to when Seattle got Denver's first round pick in the Russell Wilson trade and they got the 5th overall pick after a 5-12 season by Denver!

 

Oh. Never mind then

 

I was just messing around I don't think the Steelers will be bad enough to get a top 5 pick.

 

We're definitely winning the North.

 

Two AFC teams that were toughest to predict:
Bills, Steelers and 3 more teams the NFL Projection Model struggled to forecast - The Athletic

Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.4 wins
The Steelers are old, especially on defense and at quarterback, with the soon-to-be 43-year-old Aaron Rodgers under center. As you might imagine, aging curves are also a challenge to predict. We expect players to fall off as they get older, but by how much, and when that starts is tough to forecast.

Will defensive stars like T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward and Jalen Ramsey perform at a high level for another season? How far do they drop off? Can they stay healthy?

Beyond age, the most difficult variable to account for is how new coach Mike McCarthy will impact the offense and this roster as a whole. McCarthy probably doesn't belong in the elite tier of coaches, but he is a good one. If he and Rodgers can rekindle some magic from their Green Bay Packers glory days, there is enough talent around them to believe this offense can be above average. Of course, that assumes Rodgers can still handle pressure and hold off Father Time a little longer.

If the older players stay productive and healthy, the Steelers will be in the hunt to defend their AFC North crown. If not, well, there's no Mike Tomlin magic to save the Steelers this season.

Buffalo Bills: 10.7 wins
Josh Allen is a known commodity, which is a quick way of saying no one and nothing, including my model, doubts the QB will be great in 2026. So why are the Bills on this list? Well, it's the rest of the roster and coaching staff that makes the Bills hard to project.

As it stands right now, the Bills are the model's favorite to win the AFC East (51 percent) and rank atop the AFC when it comes to making the playoffs (74 percent). But with a lackluster receiving group and without many difference-makers on defense, I'm concerned about what happens to this team if Allen sees a dip in production. I love the offensive tackles, and Ed Oliver is great on the defensive front, but outside of that, do the Bills resemble a Super Bowl team? Because that's where they're priced right now, and a scary amount of that optimism rides on the right shoulder and legs of Allen.

They've also handed over the big job to former offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Former coach Sean McDermott may have had his flaws, but Brady is a total unknown as a head coach. I am optimistic about him bringing in Jim Leonhard as defensive coordinator, but he hasn't called plays in the NFL and hasn't called plays at any level since doing so at Wisconsin in 2022.

 

If they are bad enough, I'll win the 9th annual prediction poll.

 

These prediction teams really weigh in the ceilings of some of these teams. Overall our roster is way better than Cincinnati's, but we don't have a Burrow or Chase. So naturally, there's the feeling that they could be good, even if their defense threatens to be league's worst yet again (which I believe it will). Burrow would have to be an MVP candidate (and healthy lol) while the offense goes for over 30 a game for them to be a 10-11 win team. Their defense just can't close out the close games

On paper, our team looks significantly better than a year ago... but what is true "on paper" is not always the reality. I think we're anywhere between 8 and 11 wins depending on how we close out our close games.

 

We don't know if McCarthy will be as good as in those one score games like Tomlin was.

 

The Steelers disrespect is real

 

I don't think they will win the afc north but I agree,this is too low

 

It's only preseason but the Ravens look kind of good

 

Preseason is not real football!

 

Sure we do. Any given year is an anomaly, but he's been a HC in the league long enough. McCarthy has a .559 win rate in games decided by 8 or less and Tomlin has a .638. Difference of .079 or roughly 8% worse than MT. That means roughly he would win one more game than McCarthy every 13 games that are decided by one score.

We wont know if 2026's season sees him beat his average or miss it... but we have a decent idea that he's relatively solid in one score games historically.

 

Tomlin was great in one score games because our offense could never score more than 13 points so damn near every game is going to be a one score game, not to mention the fact he had the highest paid defense in the league

 

The Ravens are pretty good. Idk if they are SB contending good or not, but they have a good roster.

 

These "predictions" rarely come true. I would guess 90% plus come no where near what actually happens.

Everyone knows, or they should, that injuries are a major factor in how a team's season will play out. You can be SB bound on paper, but if you lose your QB or another key playmaker or two to season ending injuries, your season is cooked.

It's similar to the draft "gurus". Those guys are rarely right. It's mostly a best guess at best.

This is just entertainment to drum up interest and business.

rutan