Joey Porter Jr contract negotiations

Maybe a hybrid of this where his base is like a top ten player which I think everyone can agree on and then some smaller incentives to get him up in the top three cb’s in pay based on his performance. The thing is the league doesn’t view Porter like he views himself nor does it sound like this coaching staff does either that’s why they want to get a look at him in practice.

 

This makes a ton of sense but I keep reading the Steelers should just “Pay the man”

Whatever that means

 

.... but we were told the Steelers haven't even made an offer.... er, ok, maybe that is a sign of disrespect

 

This is basically you saying that you don't want to keep Porter.

There's a 0% chance he takes the numbers you're suggesting on a long term extension. Because it's significantly below his market value.

I think maybe you're not factoring in cap inflation? Five years from now (when a 4 year extension would end), the cap is going to be massive. For context, the cap this year (2026) is $301.2MM and 5 years ago (2021) it was $182.5MM. That's a 65% increase in 5 years.

We'll probably see something similar over the next 5 years. So thinking about a players AAV in the context of today's cap value might lead people to think that players are worth a lot less than they actually are (when you account for cap inflation).

I've be really happy if we could get Porter on the numbers your talking about. But they're very low.

Maybe a good way to think about this is to construct what you think the next five years looks for Porter. This is probably how teams come up with first drafts of numbers.

• Not new year: He's still under contract this year, so lock that number in.
• 1st new year: The team can cap his earnings next year at the tag value. Put that number in for year 2. Projected tag value for CBs next year is just under $24MM. Might end up being higher after the Gonzolez deal (expected to increased almost 20% from 2025).
• 2nd new year: The team can cap his 3rd year earnings (2nd year of extension) at the tag value + 20% from the number you get from the first tag. This is the league rule for being tagged 2x in consecutive years. Player gets a 20% increase (unless the tag value increases by more than 20%). I don't know what the CB crop looks like next year, so it's possible that the tag goes up 20% again.
• 3rd new year: Now we're into unconstrained UFA years. Probably take something like the 3rd highest paid CB by AAV and increase it by ~10% four times (i.e. 1.1^4) to account for cap inflation.
• 4th new year: Take last years number and increase by ~10%.

That will give you some kind of estimate for what his contract might look like. The first three years are relatively easy to estimate. The hard thing is to get numbers for the last two years.

Here's a guess (note that this will not be how the money would be structured in the contract, just getting estimates for total value):

• Not new year: $4MM
• 1st new year: $24MM
• 2nd new year: $28.8MM
• 3rd new year: I'll take a round number of $30MM for today's number...it's the 5th highest CB AAV...as we see later, this is an overestimate...I think because the AAV for these contracts already includes future cap inflation for other players....the bold numbers are another option described below. $43.9MM alt: $33.84MM
• 4th new year: $48.3MM alt: $40.6MM

Total: $148MM which if we count all the years is $37MM This is too high...especially since the AAV will usually be reported as new money average...which here would be $36MM.

Probably I'm overestimating by taking the AAV in year 3. But it's an easy number to find. That number will include contracts that are already accounting for cap inflation. I redid the math just doing 20% increases every year after year 3 (in bold).

When we do that we get a total of $131.2MM. Average is $26.25MM. New money average (AAV) is $31.8MM.

My guess is that your number of $28MM will be close to the average value including the season that's under contract. But I believe AAV is the "new money average" which I think will come in slightly above Witherspoon (too bad SEA couldn't hold the line a little better on that deal).

 

I get what you are saying and it’s idiot teams like the Browns Thant constantly over inflate and reset the market and screw the rest of the league. The thing is JPJ isn’t considered top `ten amongst many analyst and evaluators so I know the age of better players contracts comes into play here e other players better ones who just recently signed who Porter wants more than so your explanation isn’t fully true here.

 

It's not the Browns (although the Watson contract is the worst contract for a team ever in the NFL). It's the league. This is just how contracts work.

 

It is starting to appear to be a possibility that there might not be any contract discussion until Porter gets his butt on the field and practices

I’m starting to think @Brice may have hit on one of his conspiracies that the “injury” is of dubious nature

The season doesn’t start for almost 3 weeks so lots of time if there actually are talks

 

That isn't his fault though. His play on the field has been good enough for those honors. Its kinda ridiculous that he hasn't. Witherspoon is a 3x PB and 1X AP and Porter is better, like objectively so based on measurable metrics.

It would be a bummer to lose a player over such a small thing.

 

Your comparison of 100 million to ownership is like 5 million to Porter is just silly. You lean heavily towards the player in this situation. You sound like a union guy. Guess what Unions can be greedy and unreasonable too greed just doesn’t apply to ownership. The bottom line is Ownership doesn’t believe he is worth what he is asking for. If they cratered and paid every player what they and their agent wanted to be paid then they would be the Cleveland Browns. That just isn’t fiscally responsible. They have to pay a boat load of players next year as well with the olineman coming due. I believe they are a heck of a lot more certain in Frazier than they are Porter. If he is really worth what you say he is and they don’t want to pay him what he thinks he is worth then they should get more than a first round pick in a trade. Right now from what I have read the projected trade value is a 2nd and a 5th. If that’s the case I’m holding onto him and fining him everyday he doesn’t show up to practice. Then I’m franchise tagging him next year. He doesn’t have a lot of leverage and with Asante Samuel having a good camp and a promising rookie waiting in the wings it further hurts JPJ’s leverage.

 

I DO want to keep Porter. I want him as a Steeler for life.
But lines have to be drawn. Tough decisions must be made.
I would stick to my guidelines, there's a ton of research and pro inputs within those words.
The only way your proposal works is IF the Steelers are convinced that 2025 in his baseline and that he will become VERY special, they have to believe in that otherwise, that would be a horrible contract that they would probably have to eat. (OK, not as bad a Clev/Watson... but bad.)
As someone pointed out, maybe the picks acquired in a trade are more valuable AND Samuels has been playing quite well and did have a great pedigree before his injury.

 

The Browns are by far one of the worst teams with this. they do it quite a bit. They over paid for Ward earlier this year.

 

‘Exactly that’s why the fairest thing to do is pay him a base 0f what you value him at now and then incentivize the rest to make him a top 3 if he hits certain benchmarks. That is the fairest thing to do on both sides. It’s funny how everyone on here has no problem spending the Ronnie’s money and they all act like these players are poor and destitute as if they don’t get that extra 3 million a year or whatever their life is going to be impacted for the negative.

 

‘Boy you have been sniffing JPJ’s jock strap haven’t you? I will say the Steelers really screwed up the order in which they signed and priortized their free agents this year. Porter should have been their first priority and signed back in the spring. They do this all the time and it bites them. They made this same mistake with Watt signing him late.

 

Perhaps you should get a life rather than spending the day watching podcasts from idiots

And what makes you think they have any information

 

You may be able to say the same thing happened with TJ?

TJ was "Holding In", so the Steelers were not negotiating with him, so finally TJ had to go into Art's office and get his deal done himself.

 

No it isn't. 5 million a year when you make 30 million a year is 1/6 of your total money annually. The Steelers make over $600 million in revenue annually. 1/6 of that is $100 million. Its apples to apples nearly exactly.

Ownership pretty obviously doesn't want to pay Porter that level of money. They just paid lesser players at their position pretty good money (although the Herbig deal was pretty incentive laden). They have to pay other players, but have a lot of money to work with. Heyward and Ramsey can open a ton of money, and that's not even considering trading someone like Watt or Highsmith or restructures (if Watt doesn't return to his level of play, I'd trade him after the season). We have a lot of decisions to make, we obviously can pay two lesser corners and hope to get decent enough play out of them for their money. We don't have to pay every player what they're worth... we're building a team to try to win it all... but having a lock down corner helps. Samuel has no bearing though, he's older and Porter is much better (and doesn't have the same significant injury history). Its nice to have a deep room, but we don't have #1 corners growing on trees. If we wait to pay him, we could get expensive. If he has another big year, he won't be worth $33 mil anymore, much closer to $36-38 after Gonzalez and Mitchell get paid.

The trade value is wild. He won't get as much as Garnder, but he got two firsts. Porter is easily worth a first in this scenario, I'd say first and a third. I'd rather not trade him, but I can understand if we do. We just have to live with the consequences of our secondary taking a major dropoff without him.

 

Sort of somewhat if you turn it sideways

Buy it does dispel the myth that T J was holding out to get the most he could

 

No. I'm just comparing relevant metrics like passer rating allowed, completion percentage allowed, turnovers, etc. He grades out quite well versus Witherspoon and others.

I agree that we waited too long. Making him the highest paid CB at $31 million would be a lot better than what we will have to pay down the road, if we do in fact pay him.

 

I’ll take your word for it on the numbers. At the end of the day I would prefer to keep Porter but if he is goi g to hold out like he basically has been it really spurs me towards him. Your right the Steelers will never get the compensation for him like a Sauce Gardner we just never ever luck out I. Those Demario’s. I just don’t know why they can’t come to a compromise with incentives built in. That seems like the fairest deal for both sides. Someone is being unreasonable in this situation and to me it really feels like Porter is. As a result the organization has dug its heels in. The Steelers have more leverage in those situation. I hate when players do this crap. There is a better way to do it and show good faith. The thing is even if he does sign he is going to be behind on the defense and there is always Rick for soft tissue injury when they come in late in these situations because they aren’t in football shape. It’s just selfish all around and bad advice from the Agent. Who is agent probably the slime ball that represented Parsons. I never felt the sa,e way about Heyward or Watt by the way for their hold ins.

 

‘There are other measurables like leadership, missed tackles and non measurables like intimidation and hitting with power which Witherspoon brings the wood. Those `things are impactful as well. I’m not sure where you got the info about Porter being the number 2 cb in zone coverage. I had heard otherwise and Nick Farabaugh in particular was hard on JPJ for his zone coverage. I trust what Farabaugh says over what you are saying. Hopefully they can come to an agreement. It always makes me nervous when you have egos involved like this and it comes down to just wanting to be paid more than your peers. It really makes me dislike you as a person. Like take a step back and just be grateful for your generational wealth. Even if he is the 10th highest paid cb it is life changing money. Probably not for him though because he was born with a golden spoon in his mouth. He better be careful he could end up like Leveon.

 

to be fair jpj has had his share of bad games too.

 

My zone coverage rating came from PFF. They had him graded as the second best zone coverage player "when targeted" in the NFL in 2025. You can trust Farabaugh or PFF or whoever you want. You don't get to have such a low comp% when targeted and passer rating allowed while targeted if you aren't a really good zone coverage player too.

Leadership matters, and yes Witherspoon brings the wood... but Porter has a lower missed tackle % than Witherspoon does, so technically Witherspoon is more likely to miss a tackle than Porter is. They do blitz Witherspoon a lot more than Porter (65 vs 3 lol), but purely in coverage Porter seems to be a much better player.

I feel you on the hold out stuff, but it isn't personal. He's just trying to get paid what he can. I can't blame the guy. He's 26.... This will likely be the only big contract he ever gets. At 31 he can get paid again, but who knows what that will be and what his game will be worth then. The $5 million a year over 4 years that he's fighting for can very well be larger than the rest of the money he will make in the league outside that contract. There's no guarantee at 31 he will be worth a 20 million dollar contract.

 

I agree that there should be lines.

I posted how I would come to a number (above) and also in the first post that was about this early in the offseason. I don't see how you're coming up with your number.

My understanding is that is how teams and players come to contract valuations. They aren't just randomly picking numbers.

As I said above, I think you're thinking about contracts in today's cap dollars and not accounting for the fact that 5 years from now the cap is likely to be 60% - 70% higher than it is now. I think your number is probably around what a single year contract would be worth for him if there was no such thing as the tag and he didn't have a year left on his rookie deal.

While AAV matters, I don't think it's the think that really points to how special they think Porter is. That will be told in the guaranteed money and the structure.

For example, the structure of Benton's deal (and Herbig's too) says that the team is willing to pay him if he pans out in the next two years. Otherwise he'll get cut. Very small signing bonus. Back loaded to increase the AAV. Very easy to cut.

The AAV (which is what the method above is calculating) doesn't really tell us much about how "safe" the team thinks the bet is.

It's just calculating the money that he'll expect to earn over the next 5 years with the constraints of (1) his current remaining year, (2) 2x tags, and (3) some estimate of what someone who's about as good as he is now will be earning 4 and 5 years down the road.

I get that

 

I actually believe it is personal. It’s very personal with all of these guys. They feel disrespected by the FO and to an extent it’s all about bragging rights for these guys. I also think there is some animosity there for Joey Senior he was let go by the Steelers both as a player and coach and the new coaching staff didn’t bring him on board when he openly campaigned for it. He can say it’s all about business and it’s finally his chance to get back at the Steelers a little through his son. JPJ isn’t doing what his Dad isn’t telling him too. His Dad is a big voice in his life.

 

I want them to eat, and not be thinking of sex all that time. LoL.
Actually my Mother wouldn't allow it, and it like many lessons drill into us as kids , that one Actually stuck